Issues
The world isn’t providing much good news for emerging market stocks to build on, but the stocks themselves are doing a good job of ignoring that. This doesn’t mean that we have a new buy signal, but there are a growing number of stocks that are putting in bottoming structures and even a few making some progress. With the market looking ahead, we could start to see new leaders emerge in the next few weeks or after EM companies report their quarterly results in a couple of months. There will be plenty of bargains when the turn comes, and we’re featuring an old friend that been in the doldrums for quite a while but boasts a huge story. Read on for all the details.
The markets—despite continued shenanigans in D.C.—were virtually unchanged since our last issue. Unemployment remains steady, the CPI is stable and consumer sentiment is very positive.
As you’ll see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer and Market Views, market experts remain bullish, although we’ve seen a bit more selling this past week.
As you’ll see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer and Market Views, market experts remain bullish, although we’ve seen a bit more selling this past week.
September is living up to its reputation as a tricky month, with lots of volatility among leading stocks and rotation and news-driven moves on a day-to-day basis. Still, just going with the evidence, the trends of the major indexes and most stocks are up, so I remain bullish. That said, finding stocks early in their overall uptrends that aren’t obvious to the crowd is vital—tonight’s Stock of the Week fills the bill, blasting off three weeks ago after a 14-month correction and consolidation.
Current Market OutlookWe’ve entered the third week of September, and today was another day of sharp rotation, with the market’s leading growth stocks and indexes taking hits while other areas declined modestly (if at all). Big picture, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is still up, and most leading stocks, while choppy, are in the same boat; hence, we remain optimistic. That said, we are nudging our Market Monitor down a notch today to respect the repeated waves of selling and, just as important, a bit more iffy action from leading stocks (including a few that are seeing wild swings up and down after a big run, which is often a sign of distribution). Thus, we’re being patient with our top performers, but it’s also a good idea to tread carefully, holding at least a little cash and booking some partial profits on any stocks that are showing wear and tear.
This week’s list is another growth-heavy list, which is encouraging to see given the bouts of rotation. Our Top Pick is CarGurus (CARG), which is aiming to be the TripAdvisor of car information and whose stock is under accumulation after a four-week dip.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Acxiom (ACXM) | 0.00 | ||
| Align Technology (ALGN) | 316.20 | ||
| CarGurus (CARG) | 41.58 | ||
| Centennial Resource Development (CDEV) | 20.33 | ||
| Guidewire (GWRE) | 90.60 | ||
| HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) | 70.70 | ||
| Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) | 89.83 | ||
| Sendgrid (SEND) | 33.32 | ||
| Spirit Airlines (SAVE) | 57.03 | ||
| Viper Energy (VNOM) | 36.55 |
Of course, it’s always more fun when the market is doing well, and we are continuing our upward trend, supported by robust earnings growth. For quarter 2, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 index reported earnings higher than estimated, and 73% posted higher revenues than analysts had forecast. That’s a record—the highest number of surprises since FactSet begin gathering the data in the third quarter of 2008.
The market and growth stocks have had a couple of wobbles so far in September, and given the heady run from leading stocks in August, some further shakeouts are possible. If the selling pressure intensifies enough to turn our Cabot Tides negative, we’ll trim our sails, but right now, the trends of the major indexes and the vast majority of leading stocks are pointed up, so we remain positive.
The market’s main trends remain up, and thus I remain bullish, while continuing to remind you that a balanced portfolio with attention to risk management is always smart.
Current Market OutlookNot surprisingly, we saw some selling come into the market last week, as many stocks and indexes were stretched to the upside and some near-term sentiment measures (put-call ratios, etc.) showed complacency. In the short-term, such wobbles could easily continue, as we’re seeing some bigger names get hit on decent volume. Intermediate-term, though, we’ve seen very little abnormal action among individual stocks and the trends of the major indexes are pointed up. It’s still a good idea to go slow and look for solid entry points, and don’t forget to book some partial profits on the way up. But with the evidence still bullish, we’re remaining heavily invested.
This week’s list is centered on growth ideas, including a few that have emerged after nice rest periods. Our Top Pick is Okta (OKTA), an early-stage leader that just busted loose from a three-month zone on huge volume.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| BJs Wholesale (BJ) | 36.69 | ||
| Glaukos Corp. (GKOS) | 67.84 | ||
| HubSpot (HUBS) | 582.89 | ||
| Match (MTCH) | 0.00 | ||
| NuVasive (NUVA) | 66.00 | ||
| Okta, Inc. (OKTA) | 148.41 | ||
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | 236.92 | ||
| Ulta Beauty (ULTA) | 331.95 | ||
| United Continental Holdings (UAL) | 96.76 | ||
| Yext Inc. (YEXT) | 21.32 |
Updates
[Note: The Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published next Friday, June 19, due to the market being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.]
Before we get into the main topic for today’s newsletter update, a quick note on the portfolio is in order. I’m continuing our “spring cleaning” effort that we began last week by trimming a couple more of our holdings, but I’m also adding a new position to take the place of the recent deletions.
Before we get into the main topic for today’s newsletter update, a quick note on the portfolio is in order. I’m continuing our “spring cleaning” effort that we began last week by trimming a couple more of our holdings, but I’m also adding a new position to take the place of the recent deletions.
After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.
While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
Stocks look set to enter the summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed, volatility has ticked up, and there’s been renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and valuation concerns in some of the market’s biggest winners.
At the same time, the macro backdrop remains a mix of resilience and intermittent turbulence. While economic data continues to hold up, energy prices remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict – which has no end in sight – keeping upward pressure on inflation and yields.
At the same time, the macro backdrop remains a mix of resilience and intermittent turbulence. While economic data continues to hold up, energy prices remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict – which has no end in sight – keeping upward pressure on inflation and yields.
Tech, commodity, AI, and Explorer stocks struggled this week as concern over capital expenditures increased. Mideast tensions intensified and inflation numbers came in yesterday at their highest rate in over three years, fueled by rising energy costs. The combination of anticipated higher interest rates and rising bond yields impacted the price of precious metals, with gold sliding below $4,200 an ounce and silver falling below $64 an ounce.
Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.
There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?
The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains in good shape, though we are seeing some exuberance on the upside and also a few leaders begin to act sloppy. Near term, then, it’s still a coin flip as to what comes, but the vast majority of intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits in Marvell (MRVL) earlier this week; tonight, we’re buying a half-sized position (5% of the account) in Bloom Energy (BE), which is extremely volatile but also strong and coming off a few weeks of rest. Our cash position will now be around 28%.
This market just keeps going higher.
Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.
Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.
Despite the negative headlines and volatility, stocks just keep going.
After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.
After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.
This week’s Memorial Day observance marked the traditional onset of the summer vacation season for millions of Americans. It’s a time of traveling, sightseeing, picnics and parties. It’s also the peak season for enjoying cold, carbonated beverages like soda pop and energy drinks.
With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.
With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.
On the heels of a miserable March and a euphoric April, I wrote several weeks ago in this space that I thought May would determine which direction the market is truly headed, at least in the intermediate term. We have our answer, and it’s a definitive “up.”
All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.
All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.
Alerts
A new dividend payment makes our Top Pick very attractive, and our contributor has added a new Mid-Year Top Pick.
Based on new data and improved prospects, I have raised my Min Sell Price for Gilead Sciences to 79.79 from 71.83.
This micro-cap tech company is speculative and trading at a discounted level, but the shares tend to rise rapidly on good news.
We’re waiting on a gold rebound with this Top Pick.
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR 187) is falling today after London investigators concluded that the Grenfell Tower fire started in a Hotpoint fridge freezer, manufactured by a subsidiary of Whirlpool.
A refrigerator made by Whirlpool (WHR) is being cited as the source of the Grenfell Tower fire in London. This kind of disaster can easily punish a stock price for a prolonged period of time.
Both of these Top Picks beat analysts’ estimates in the recent quarter; the first by $0.08 and the second by $0.07.
Both of these Top Picks beat analysts’ estimates in the recent quarter; the first by $0.08 and the second by $0.07.
Oracle (ORCL) has reached its Minimum Sell Price and should be sold. Kroger (KR) is expected to flounder in the 21.5 to 23 area for an extended period of time so it’s a Sell too.
Weibo (WB) shares are down around 10% in pre-market trading. The stock plummeted after news out of China that a regulator had ordered Weibo to shut down its audio and video services.
Here’s an update on the three exchange-traded funds, designed for a rising interest rate scenario.
Updates on two stocks and a rating change on another.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.