Current Market Outlook


Sellers finally landed a few punches last week, with many tech-related growth stocks finding resistance and the big-cap indexes losing a little ground. Given the big run of late, lots of speculation and signs of greed, we have our antennae up for abnormal weakness—but so far, there hasn’t been much (if any), with the pullbacks in the indexes and individual stocks appearing normal and other timing indicators (number of new lows, etc.) looking fine. In fact, some solid entry points could appear with a bit more weakness! We are seeing continuing rotation into more cyclical areas and out of some growth names, but the trends of just about all indexes and leaders are up, so we remain mostly bullish.

This week’s list has stocks from many different nooks and crannies of the market. Our Top Pick is Guardant Health (GH), from the strong medical area, as it’s come under major accumulation this year. It’s a bit extended so start small and/or aim for dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Cimarex Energy (XEC)	49.1	44.5-47.5	39.5-41.5
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)	23.3	22-23.5	19.5-20.5
Farfetch (FTCH)	58.8	56-58.5	51-52.5
Guardant Health (GH)	160.0	152-162	132-137
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO)	48.3	45-48	40-41.5
Shake Shack (SHAK)	111.7	106-110	91-94
Sonos (SONO)	27.0	25-26.5	22-23
TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX)	50.2	46.5-49.5	41-42.5
The Timken Company (TKR)	85.0	81-85	74-76
Upwork (UPWK)	40.7	37.5-40	33.5-35

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The market remains very strong, with the trends of the major indexes and the vast majority of stocks pointed up, both of which keeps us mostly bullish. But really, we’re looking at things mainly on a stock-by-stock basis now; some names are extremely extended and vulnerable to air pockets, while others are just a few weeks into what look like new, sustained advance. With that in mind, we’re actually taking partial profits on one stock today, while averaging up in another — all in all, we’ll still be around 18% in cash.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we write about some of our favorite cookie-cutter stories out there at the moment; we own one great one, but we’d like to have another. And we also review all our stocks, present some new ideas and talk a bit how to handle the speculative, super-hot names in the proper fashion.

Beyond the incessant trumpeting of current events by every orifice of the media, a future awaits. And it’s right around the bend. Beneath the current noise, tectonic plates are moving below the surface, and the world is changing.

Identifying these underlying shifts is a great way to find winning investments. And there is a particular shift that is affecting the market far more than any other, the rapid pace of technological advancement. It is the greatest force driving the market and its dominance is likely to grow.



When investors focus on the world beyond the virus and the elections they will ask what’s next. What is next for the market is what is next for technology. And 5G is central to that discussion.



5G will drive the next phase of technological innovation and launch the world into a new digital age. In this month’s issue, I highlight a major player in the technology space that will benefit directly and massively from the rollout. It’s still cheap, pays a good dividend and is on the cusp of an epic year.

Today, we are recommending a leading app developer.

The stock is near a 52 week high, but I think there is ~50% additional upside over the next year.



This company’s characteristics include:

•85% revenue growing in its most recent quarter

•A reasonable valuation (P/E of 19x annualized earnings)

•Company insiders own over 12% of shares outstanding

•Recent insider buying




All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

This week, Cabot Profit Booster features a top new-economy recommendation in the fast-growing social media space whose stock is just short of its all-time high.

First, note that due to next week’s holiday (and the market being closed), your issue will be delivered one day later, on Tuesday, January 19.

Today, the market’s main trend remains up, and thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested. However, I also see a lot of potential for corrections from this dizzy height, so I’m selling one stock today (TSM) and downgrading two to hold (NUAN and QCOM).



As for today’s recommendation, it’s a low-risk dividend-paying stock we actually owned for two months last year—and did well with. And I think the portfolio can benefit from it again now.



Full details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


The first week of the year was extremely volatile, but all in all the action ended up positive, with major indexes kissing fresh all-time highs and many leading stocks ending up nicely on the week. Overall, then, not much has changed—the primary evidence remains positive, so we’re content to ride things higher, but there’s little doubt the environment is hot and heavy (basically the opposite of what we saw 10 months ago), so you should continue to keep your feet on the ground (trail stops, take partial profits when available) and be discerning with your buys (aiming to enter after a bit of rest or some sharp shakeouts to support areas).

Because of this, most of our buy ranges are a bit below current prices (looking for pullbacks), though we still see some solid setups. One is Snap (SNAP), which is a clear leader in the internet space and has just returned to its highs after its first test of the 10-week line since its October blastoff.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
8x8, Inc. (EGHT)	35.5	32.5-34.5	27.5-29
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	116.8	108-112	97-99
The Mosaic Company (MOS)	26.8	25-27	21.5-22.5
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	364.6	345-360	310-320
Progyny (PGNY)	44.9	40.5-43	36.5-38
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	54.4	53-55	47-48.5
Spotify (SPOT)	344.2	335-347	297-304
Sunrun (RUN)	95.8	87-91	74-77
Vale S.A. (VALE)	18.6	17.4-18.2	15.8-16.2
Zillow (Z)	143.2	134-140	119-122

As I bring you up to date on the remaining Benjamin Graham Value portfolio stocks, I’m aware that some subscribers are not entirely aware of the recent change at Cabot. The Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor (BGV) publication has been discontinued (please check your inbox from March 12), and I’ll be writing about its portfolio stocks until such a time as it seems prudent to sell them, one at a time, for better investing opportunities.

I noted last week that the outperformance in growth stocks was contributing to some underperformance in our portfolio. That situation has now been flipped on its head. Growth stocks started lagging in the middle of last week, and for the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.24%, the Dow dropped 1.54% and the Nasdaq fell by 1.04%. Utilities and REITs—year-to-date laggards—were the week’s best-performing sectors.

The market’s slide this week has put our Cabot Tides back on the fence. That said, most leading growth stocks continue to act very well. All together, we’re holding our strong, profitable stocks and looking at new buys, while honoring our stops and keeping a bit of cash on the sideline.

2018 banking regulatory reform will lead to 2019 earnings boosts, benefiting four of our stocks.

This week’s update is more of a review of the most notable news, which is Arena Pharmaceuticals’ (ARNA) quarterly results.

The iShares EM Fund (EEM) bounced strongly in early March, which returns the Emerging Markets Timer to a positive reading. Granted, it’s not the strongest signal we’ve ever seen, but it counts. Quarterly reports are winding up, and we’ll take the Timer’s advice and return one stock to a Buy rating.

Crista Huff begins transitioning Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor holdings to her undervalued investing strategy with updates on all stocks and several ratings changes.

Good news. The U.S. economy is delivering Goldilocks-like growth—strong but not too strong—and the stock market is back in a good mood. Inflation rose 0.2% in February, meeting expectations but down a notch from last month’s 0.5% rate. And Friday’s jobs report showed that job creation remains robust, but wages are still increasing slowly (up 0.1% in February). The report pushed the yield on the 10-year treasury to within 0.06 percentage points of 3%, but it stopped just shy of breaking through.

Many of our stocks appear to be advancing this week. There are a few that I’ll be selling soon due to either valuation or upside price resistance, yet they remain excellent longer-term investments, including Alphabet (GOOGL).

This feels like one of those markets that you’re not sure you should trust given how volatile it was in February. But the combination of revenue growth, earnings growth and decent charts, especially among growth stocks, suggests it’s best not to try to predict too far into the future. For now, the evidence in front of us favors the bulls.

Given the mixed evidence, we think the Model Portfolio is in a proper stance, with about one-third in cash, but also holding onto a bunch of attractive stocks that could be leaders of the next upturn.

Volatility continues on Wall Street. Every time stocks seem to be building sustainable momentum, they run into a brick wall. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. the investor “fear gauge,” remains well above its 52-week average, showing that there are still some concerned investors out there.

This company continues to spin off and acquire other businesses, strengthening its medical and commercial strategy.

As summer morphs into fall and Wall Street returns to full operation, I’m seeing some welcome signs of buying in the cannabis sector. So today we’ll join them, by averaging up in two of our holdings.

The second recommendation is a sale of a previous tech pick.

Our first idea today was just upgraded to ‘Buy’ at Loop Capital.

This contract research company beat analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.18 last quarter and six analysts have recently increased their earnings forecasts for the company.

We’re selling two stocks today.

This regional supermarket also gets a nod from Zacks, scoring an ‘A’ on its VGM (value, growth, momentum score)

One of our portfolio stocks moves from Strong Buy to Hold.

Despite the apparent death of the AMGN/ALXN merger, this stock continues to be a prime candidate for acquisition.

Three retail stocks reported earnings.

This technology company focusing on energy and water beat analysts’ estimates by a whopping $0.40 last quarter, and eight analysts have recently increased their EPS forecasts for the company.

This specialty measurement company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.03 last quarter.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.