This week is the expiration of March options, and the good news is we appear to be headed to full profits on four of our March positions (JCI, SONO, GS, APHA) and are in good shape with our one position that is unlikely to be called away Friday (DT). Expect to hear from me Thursday afternoon or early Friday morning on these expiring covered calls.

The market rallied nicely last week, and growth stocks joined the crowd (which is good), but today’s strong open didn’t last and now we’re seeing deterioration across the board, reminding us that the market is a two-way street. Plus, in the background is the fact that investor sentiment is so high, and the economic news has been so good, that eventually we’re going to need a big correction.

Still, looking at the stocks in our portfolio, I see no need for any ratings changes today.



As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a growth stock that hit a new high just last Friday and has a long runway of growth ahead of it as its young industry expands.



Details inside.

Current Market Outlook


Up is good, so last week’s rebound in growth and continued push higher in the broad market was encouraging. That said, nothing much has changed with the overall evidence—many areas of the market look just fine, with a few indexes actually hitting all-time highs, but growth stocks are still (mostly) in a corrective mode, with a bunch of names having rallied only into resistance. Really, we think the action of the next week or two will tell the tale—resilience and upside from here would suggest the huge pullback earlier this month was more of a shakeout, but renewed selling pressure would hint toward another leg down. Right now, we’re playing things halfway—we’re OK with some buying, especially in stronger names that pull back some, but we’re not pushing the envelope and need to see more from growth before concluding the storm has passed. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 5 today.

This week’s list is very much a mixed bag, with cyclicals, retail, growth and turnarounds all making the cut. Our Top Pick is Thor Industries (THO), which looks like the leader of a fresh move for that group. You could nibble here or (preferably) on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Big Lots (BIG)	71	66-69	59-61
Devon Energy (DVN)	25	22-23.5	19-20
Dropbox (DBX)	28	26.5-28	24-25
Dycom Industries (DY)	100	95-98	85-87
Groupon Inc. (GRPN)	60	57-60	48-50
Inari Medical (NARI)	114	110.5-115.5	98-101
Macy’s, Inc. (M)	21	18-19.5	15.5-16.5
Owens & Minor (OMI)	37	33.5-35.5	30-31
Summit Materials (SUM)	30	28-30	25-26
Thor Industries (THO)	147	140-147	125-128

The overall market remains in good shape, with many indexes actually stretching to new highs this week. But growth stocks are another ball of wax, with many leaders having decisively cracked their uptrends and the Nasdaq itself stuck in no-man’s land even after this week’s bounce.

We’re open to anything, and in fact we’re putting a small piece of cash back to work tonight (buying a half-sized position in a high-potential stock), but we’re mostly going slow and waiting for growth stocks to set up properly. Our cash position will be right around 50%.

Cyclical or open-up stocks are on fire, and for good reason.

The U.S. economy has far exceeded expectations at every phase of the recovery so far. The vaccines promise to end the remaining lockdowns and restrictions. With the shackles removed, the economy will kick into high gear. Even several normally dour economists are predicting the highest GDP growth in decades this year.



In anticipation, cyclical financial stocks are on fire. The Financial Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is up 45% just since the vaccine announcement in early November. Yet, many financial stocks are still undervalued ahead of what should be an ideal environment for the sector.



In addition to the bright near-term prospects for financial stocks in general, there is also an incredible growth trend in a particular niche area, alternative investments. These include investments outside of the stock and bond markets. Individuals and institutions desperate to diversify are piling in. And massive growth in this arena is accelerating.



In this issue, I highlight a company I believe to be the very best player in alternative investments. Stock performance has far exceeded its peers and there is every reason to believe the outperformance will continue going forward.

Today, we are recommending a biotech company.

The company is trading well below an offer to take it private and has numerous other catalysts on the horizon.



This company’s characteristics include:

• Insiders own over 40% of the company.
• A proxy fight - A hedge fund is lobbying to have the company sold to the highest bidder.
• Royalty income streams which provide downside protection.
• Much, much more.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

The last two weeks have seen a massive rally into cyclical stocks, and a purge of growth stocks. Massive! Whether this trend will continue is anyone’s guess.

The good news for the Cabot Profit Booster portfolio is we have a relatively diverse portfolio. And as I eyeball our portfolio, I would say we have five cyclical stocks (AZEK, JCI, SONO, GS, APHA) and “only” two growth stocks (DT, AMKR), and the premiums we collected via our covered call sales have partially buffered us from big losses on those stocks that have been hit hard.

Current Market Outlook


The selling pressure that we saw emerge two weeks ago really picked up last week, with the vast majority of leading growth stocks cracking intermediate-term support. That said, the rest of the market has refused to follow the Nasdaq’s lead; there’s been some damage and plenty of wobbles, but so far the broader indexes have held up, and buying in many cyclical areas has picked up. Just going with the evidence, we’d be shying away from growth stocks while looking for opportunities in the strong sectors should they rest or shakeout. Our biggest thought, though, is that making money has become much harder during the past month and a half, with wild moves, rotation and volatility, so now’s a time to go slow and give some thought to capital preservation until we see the buyers really flex their muscles. We’re moving our Market Monitor to a level 5.

As expected, this week’s list is heavy on cyclical and re-opening themes, with many names showing excellent action. Our Top Pick is Marriott Vacations (VAC), which has soaring earnings estimates and a stock that just lifted out of a three-year base on huge volume.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)	32	28.5-30.5	24.5-25.5
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)	139	134-140	119-123
Applied Materials (AMAT)	106	102-107	92-94
Diamondback Energy (FANG)	84	76-80	66-68
Lyft (LYFT)	64	58-62	51-53.5
Marriott Vacations (VAC)	184	177-183	154-158
The Middleby Corporation (MIDD)	166	162-167	144-147
Nucor Corporation (NUE)	66	63-65	56.5-57.5
PDC Energy (PDCE)	38	34-36.5	28-29.5
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)	95	91.5-94	82.5-84

The Dow was up big today but growth stocks are still having a rough time, and I’m growing increasingly concerned that the broad market will eventually roll over, too. The news has been so good, and investors have become so bullish, that eventually we’re going to need a big correction.

Last week I recommended selling four stocks and this week I’m recommending selling two more.



In the meantime, I’ve got to recommend something to buy; that’s the name of the publication! So today’s recommendation is a little-known small company in a solid industry that will likely be substantially larger in years to come.



Details inside.

As we move forward we’ll look to focus capital on companies with both solid growth profiles and encouraging price charts. One without the other hasn’t been working (and in fact many of these stocks are trending down), so there’s not much incentive to hold underperformers and hope for a quick turnaround.

Our Emerging Markets Timer has turned negative, but its action of the past two months looks more like a trading range than a downtrend. Overall we continue to take things on a stock-by-stock basis; we have several stocks that are teetering on the edge of being kicked out of the portfolio, but we’re inclined to be patient unless a stock’s decline forces our hand.

U.S. stock markets continue to work their way through the 2018 stock market correction. It’s not a bear market—it’s just a correction. And fortunately, the correction did not arrive due to a bearish economic situation, war or a California earthquake. The market simply rose too far, too fast without resting in 2017. As such, most stocks are down from very recent highs while the market digests that gourmet dinner.

Unless you’re a brand new subscriber to Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor, you’re aware that as we entered 2018, I had been advising investors to raise cash so that they could buy low during the yet-to-occur-but-overdue stock market correction. There was nothing amiss with U.S. stocks, in my estimation, other than that the markets rose continuously since the November 2016 general election.

Most of the stocks in our portfolio that are holding up well (and in many cases moving higher) are either rated buy or hold, and those that aren’t have already been sold, or are rated hold, and being watched extremely closely.

As I bring you up to date on the remaining Benjamin Graham Value portfolio stocks, I’m aware that some subscribers are not entirely aware of the recent change at Cabot. The Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor (BGV) publication has been discontinued (please check your inbox from March 12), and I’ll be writing about its portfolio stocks until such a time as it seems prudent to sell them, one at a time, for better investing opportunities.

I noted last week that the outperformance in growth stocks was contributing to some underperformance in our portfolio. That situation has now been flipped on its head. Growth stocks started lagging in the middle of last week, and for the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.24%, the Dow dropped 1.54% and the Nasdaq fell by 1.04%. Utilities and REITs—year-to-date laggards—were the week’s best-performing sectors.

The market’s slide this week has put our Cabot Tides back on the fence. That said, most leading growth stocks continue to act very well. All together, we’re holding our strong, profitable stocks and looking at new buys, while honoring our stops and keeping a bit of cash on the sideline.

2018 banking regulatory reform will lead to 2019 earnings boosts, benefiting four of our stocks.

This week’s update is more of a review of the most notable news, which is Arena Pharmaceuticals’ (ARNA) quarterly results.

The iShares EM Fund (EEM) bounced strongly in early March, which returns the Emerging Markets Timer to a positive reading. Granted, it’s not the strongest signal we’ve ever seen, but it counts. Quarterly reports are winding up, and we’ll take the Timer’s advice and return one stock to a Buy rating.

Crista Huff begins transitioning Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor holdings to her undervalued investing strategy with updates on all stocks and several ratings changes.

Crista is changing the rating on two stocks and retiring another.

Earnings for this social media site were recently raised by 34%, and the company is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 67.4% over the next five years.

Two stocks in the portfolio recently reported earnings.

Crista reports good earnings announcements in five portfolio stocks.

Analysts expect this semiconductor company to grow at a rate more than 29% this year.

Nine analysts have increased their earnings estimates for this consulting firm in the last 30 days.

The major indexes were mixed today, with the Dow up 29 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points.

This health insurer has also recently been recommended by Zacks, due to earnings and cash flow growth, as well as rising estimates.

This ETF is heavily weighted with tech stocks.

Thus far, the 11 portfolio companies that delivered second-quarter results have all met or exceeded Wall Street’s consensus earnings estimates.

Analysts expect this casino company to spurt annual growth of 33.27% over the next five years.

This vehicle supplier beat analysts’ estimates by $.09 last quarter, and Wall Street expects it to grow at a rate of 27.5% this year.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.