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Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

The market’s steady advance came to a halt last week, though given the recent run higher, the losses felt “normal.” For the week the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Dow lost 1.67%, and the Nasdaq declined by 1.45%.

This week is the expiration of eight of our positions. Expect to hear from me on how we will manage these trades Thursday afternoon or Friday morning.

Charlie Munger passed away last month at 99, but he left behind important lessons for all of us, about life and investing.

Current Market Outlook


The market had put together a few small positive steps heading into last week, but after a solid G20-induced rally on Monday, it’s been all selling, all the time—the intermediate-term trend has rejoined the longer-term trend in bearish territory, with some indexes (including the S&P 500 today) hitting new correction lows. Because of that, we’re moving our Market Monitor back down a notch to a level 4 and advise remaining in a defensive stance. That said, it’s not all bad news; we’re seeing more stocks that are resisting the market’s pull (forming significantly higher lows), and many indexes are still being defended at their October/November lows. Bottom line, it’s best to take things day-by-day and go with the evidence—which, today, means holding plenty of cash.

This week’s list, though, is a good place to start building a watch list if you’ve yet to do so, as many of these stocks look like they want to move higher if the market gets going. Our Top Pick is MongoDB (MDB), a stock that actually nosed to new highs after earnings before pulling back in.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Guardant Health (GH)	88.34	42-44.5	36.5-38
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)	51.30	22-23.5	20-21
LHC Group (LHCG)	103.10	97.5-100	89-91
MongoDB (MDB)	156.56	80-84	70-72.5
Okta, Inc. (OKTA)	148.41	61-64.5	54-56
RH Inc. (RH)	252.93	132-138	119-123
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	143-150	130-134
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	57.5-60.5	52-53.5
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA)	31.04	26-28	22.5-23.5
Zscaler (ZS)	126.22	38.5-41	33.5-35.5

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes have done a decent job of holding above the August 24 lows, and a few stocks and sectors have pushed to new high ground. In the short term, we still think further upside testing is possible, especially if the Federal Reserve issues some reassuring words later this week. However, it’s going to take more than just another couple of good days to turn the market’s trends back up—right now, all of the major indexes (and the vast majority of stocks) are still buried beneath resistance and are trading below key moving averages. Thus, we’re sticking with our defensive stance—the onus is clearly on the bulls to re-take control.

This week’s list has another batch of potential leaders; there’s not many defensive stocks making the list, which is encouraging. Our Top Pick is Royal Caribbean (RCL), a big-cap leisure stock that has a strong chart and big earnings estimates.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (WCG)	271.83	92-96	86-88
Virgin Airlines (VA)	0.00	33-35	30-31
Tempur Sealy (TPX)	85.53	74-77	68-69
RH Inc. (RH)	252.93	97-99	85-86
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)	0.00	90-93	85-86
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)	123.40	51-54	46-48
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)	261.52	170-174	158-160
Clovis Oncology (CLVS)	0.00	98-102	86-88
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	510-530	460-470
Abiomed (ABMD)	0.00	90-95	85-86

These are confusing times in the market. It looks like a soft landing for the economy is more likely. But that’s no guarantee. We could still have a recession next year. The bull market could rage on or pull back. Instead of betting on the economic cycle, it’s a time to focus on individual stocks.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) exploded onto the market scene in a huge way in May when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) blew away earnings expectations citing much higher demand for AI chips than anyone expected. It added another leg to the bull market as AI-related stocks soared.

Leading stocks have been breaking out to new highs and recently begun uptrends are looking more and more sustainable, indicating that the worst is most likely behind us.

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In 2011, I see an oil Goldilocks rally—not too soft, not too firm, just right.

Mike Cintolo discusses two simple portfolio management techniques investors can use during a market decline.

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I’m making four changes to the portfolio today.

Things are still good in the market. The S&P 500 closed at yet another record high on Monday. That index is now up 19.27% so far in 2021 after managing to return 15.76% in pandemic-stricken 2020.

There’s good news. The S&P 500 has made a new all-time high. The Nasdaq achieved a new high on Monday. That’s the first new high for the tech-heavy index since early February.

The market is starting this week higher on optimism about a “soft landing.” But the CPI inflation number for August that comes out on Wednesday could derail or support the rally.

Things seem upbeat Monday morning. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that she is “feeling very good” about avoiding a recession while still reining in prices. Of course, she called inflation “transitory” in early 2021. There were also some encouraging numbers about the Chinese economy. Also, the Fed is widely expected not to raise the Fed Funds rate later this month.

The market is always uncertain. No one ever really knows in which direction the next 5% or 10% move will be. But this is a much higher level of uncertainty than usual.

The good year so far has been a surprise. Most pundits were forecasting more gloom and doom at the beginning of the year. But the S&P 500 is up 15% YTD. It rallied on the promise of a soft landing and then got a further boost as artificial intelligence spending promises to be a strong growth catalyst for the market’s largest sector for years to come. After sputtering for the last six weeks, where does it go from here?

The market tends to be lackluster in the late summer. But that goes double for the last week of the summer.

Unless there is a riveting headline, the overall market is likely in a holding pattern until the rubber hits the road next week after Labor Day. Sobered up investors back from vacation will take a fresh look at things after they wrap up the summer and come back from vacation. What will they see?

Just when the market seemed to be back on track, it had a terrible day. After rallying 13.6% from the Christmas Eve low and regaining most of what it lost since the September high, the S&P 500 fell 1.42% on Tuesday. I believe the market will likely trend higher but not by a lot, favoring the more recession-resistant plays. That’s the story right now but as result of the recent action, we have two rating changes in the portfolio.