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Things are looking up. Inflation is falling. The Fed is almost done hiking. And there is no recession to be found.


The market has surprised just about everybody in the first half of the year. The S&P had risen 13% as of days before midyear and over 24% from the October low. This new bull market is not what was expected.



After an abysmal 2022, most pundits were expecting more ugliness in the first half of this year and a recovery somewhere in the second half. But investors sensed that we could get through this Fed rate hiking cycle with minimal pain. Then artificial intelligence (AI) gave stocks a further boost.

The impressive rally that has confounded so many may be running out of gas.

As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up about 15% YTD and over 20% from the October low, making it officially a new bull market. Investors are optimistic that inflation is falling, the Fed is almost done hiking, and there is no recession in sight. The market is sensing that we can get through this rate-hiking cycle without much pain.

But this rally is not as impressive as it seems. Only about 10 large technology stocks account for just about all the YTD gains. The other 490 stocks on the index have collectively gone nowhere.

Warren Buffett became the world’s most famous investor in part by investing in companies with strong economic “moats.” Today, we add a well-known company that fits that description. We also say goodbye to two stocks to make room for more reliable opportunities as the market teeters.

It was another good week for Explorer recommendations led by ChargePoint (CHPT), up 17%, and Butterfly (BFLY), up another 8%.


Some of you will remember when George Gilder’s Wealth and Poverty hit the market in 1981 like a thunderclap. It was intellectual capital and political firepower for both the Reagan Revolution and a big bull market.



Mr. Gilder has been active ever since and has a new book out that I highly recommend, Life After Capitalism.

This is, dare I say, a good market.

The S&P 500 is up 11.31% YTD, and the year isn’t even half over. Stocks have rallied more than 20% from the October low. The index is within bad breath distance of last summer’s high. The S&P is only 10% below the all-time high.

Why is the market so strong? There are several reasons. Inflation is coming down. The Fed is almost done hiking rates. And there is no recession. Throw in a booming artificial intelligence business and you have a rising market.

Now, unlike Wellcare Group, Crocs still has an excellent growth business, and we still have high expectations for the company. But we don’t confuse the stock with the company, and we never argue with the stock. CROX, like WCG, is heavily damaged. Every rally from here will be met with selling pressures from investors who bought higher who will now be content to “get out even.” And thus it’s highly unlikely that this stock will return to its winning ways in the near term. So we say sell.

Talk of trade wars continues to dominate stock market news but investors appear increasingly willing to shrug off related concerns. They do in the U.S. at least, where stocks are faring far better than in both the European Union and emerging markets.

Markets pulled it together last week, with oversold financial and consumer stocks finding support and delivering gains for the holiday-shortened week. However, the market started this week with another sharp pullback Monday, bringing the Dow and S&P 500 back to their February lows. And markets look set to open lower today after China announced a slew of retaliatory 25% tariffs on U.S. exports. A rebound later this week is likely, but not certain.

The market stinks right now, but MasterCard (MA) still looks good.

Broadly speaking, the market has been sketchy. Small caps have been trending down since early October, and the pace of the decline accelerated over the past week. In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t surprising. The September advance was incredibly strong, and a pull-back to the small cap index’s 50-day line isn’t remotely alarming.

All the major U.S. stock market indexes are experiencing orderly pullbacks right now. (This is good news because the farther the market climbs without resting, the bigger the pullback when it finally arrives.)

With the bulls and bears continuing to fight it out in the growth arena, we’re moving into a more cyclical industry with today’s addition.

The company is a leading maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. This industry is growing rapidly as the current innovation wave requires smaller, faster and more durable chips.



Making those chips at scale can only be done with specialized measurement and process control equipment. Which is exactly what this company specializes in.



Enjoy!

It’s been a challenging year for investors in cannabis stocks, but the good news today is that the stock market as a whole is stronger, and cannabis stocks are trending higher as well, especially in Canada, where the stocks were thoroughly oversold.

So I’m adding two new Canadian stocks to the portfolio.



Full details in the issue.

The market remains in good shape, with the major indexes hitting slightly higher highs and most stocks acting well. Granted, many growth stocks have been consolidating their strong mid-May to early-June advances, but we’re actually encouraged by that—despite strong run-ups back to (or somewhat above) their springtime highs, the sellers haven’t been able to make any headway. Sure, that could always change, but right now there’s no question that selling pressures are light and the buyers remain in control. Hence, it’s best to remain bullish and pick up shares of new leaders either on powerful breakouts or on dips toward support.

This week’s list has more solid growth ideas than we’ve seen in many weeks. Our favorite idea is GasLog (GLOG), which has gotten a boost from international events, but whose short- and long-term growth story is compelling. Last week, the stock blasted off on its heaviest volume ever.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	99-104	92-93
SunPower (SPWR)	12.26	38-39	34-35
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)	129.66	70-75	65-66
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	77-81	70-71
Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)	146.30	90-93	78-80
GasLog (GLOG)	21.39	28-31	26-26.5
Electronic Arts (EA)	0.00	35-37	31-32
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	160-166	148-150
Arris Group (ARRS)	0.00	31.5-33.5	30-30.5
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	89-91	83-84

The population is aging. And it’s aging at warp speed. People 50 years of age and older now comprise a third of the U.S. population. The fastest growing segment of the population is 65 and older as an average of 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every single day. And it’s not just this country – aging is a global phenomenon.

We don’t know how sticky inflation will be or what the Fed will do. We don’t know if there will be a recession this year or next year or what the recovery will look like, or who will be the next president. But we do know that the population is shifting and companies on the receiving end of the torrent of dollars that will flow as a result should benefit mightily.

In this issue, I highlight another new stock to buy. This stock is cheap with strong momentum and properties that should help it perform well in any kind of market. It’s a healthcare stock ahead of a huge megatrend, the aging population.

Investing with the tailwind of a megatrend makes it so much easier to make a successful investment. It makes mediocre stocks great and good stocks one of your best investments ever.

The market has been following a very bullish script for the past few weeks, doing just about everything it “needed” to do -- our Cabot Tides have turned positive, as has our Two-Second Indicator, while our Aggression Index tells us growth-ier names are in favor. And more important, individual names are now breaking out (not failing) and following through on the upside. Obviously, the market has come a long way in a short time, and we are starting to see a few strong names wobble a bit, so we’re not going whole hog right here, but we are continuing with our plan of steadily putting money to work -- tonight, we’re filling out our position in one current holding and starting a new half-sized position in a new name. That should leave us with around 40% in cash.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we go over all our new stocks and our watch list, write about one strong sector outside of growth and dive into some solid longer-term positive signs for the market as a whole.

Achieving your financial dreams has more to do with how you save and invest than where you start. These tips can help you embrace a “millionaire mindset” and reach your goals.

The market still has many of the same issues that have been hanging around for weeks, including an extreme narrowness, with the vast majority of the market struggling while mega-cap indexes do pretty well. Even so, we do think the evidence has taken a step in the right direction -- the AI boomlet is a positive sign, and many non-AI leaders acted well in May and have rested normally since. We’re not flooring the accelerator, but given our monstrous cash position, we’re dropping a couple more lines in the water tonight, adding two half-sized stakes in old favorites.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we give our thoughts (and some ideas) within the AI advance, write about a long-term growth area that could be re-emerging and, as always, go over our stocks, an expanded watch list and some other new ideas to chew on.