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While the market news is inundated with Trump stories as he has issued a massive number of executive orders on his first day in office, the real market catalyst right now actually started last week.

There were a slew of executive orders affecting the energy industry but no real surprises. The improving story remains essentially the same since the election. There was likely some relief that large tariffs have not been announced, at least so far. But the Trump news is overshadowing last week’s market-altering news.

The third quarter ended with the market looking good. The S&P 500 was up 2% in September after a rough start, 4.3% for the third quarter and over 20% YTD. Can the good times last?

After a huge post-election rally, the market leveled off.

The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.

These are good times. The S&P 500 is up 6% since the election and 27% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.

The market is seemingly making new highs every day as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward because of the election. We’ll see if the economic growth materializes. But this optimistic economy expectation comes while the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last the next two years. Why wouldn’t the market be partying?

The market is solid. It is within a whisker of the high. But this is the last week of August. What will it do when investors start really paying attention again after Labor Day?

There has been some back and forth recently. The indexes pulled back as technology and the AI trade ran out of gas. But then stocks rallied again after the Fed Chairman indicated at the Jackson Hole speech last week that the central bank would finally cut the fed funds rate in September. Wall Street loves rate cuts.

Just when the market appeared vulnerable to selling pressure, news from an unexpected source rode to the rescue, lifting stocks.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department announced that inflation rose 2.7% in July from a year earlier, which was the same as the previous month and up from a post-pandemic low of 2.3% in April. “Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June,” according to the Associated Press.

We’re adding a new 5.3% yielding stock to the High Yield Tier. Most of our other positions are rated Buy as well, and the market is strong, so if you’re underinvested, it’s time to put some money to work.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the July 2021 issue.

The main supports for the market (an improving economy, strengthening earnings, low interest rates and a lack of major negative surprises) remain in place. It looks like a road of green lights well into the future.



One green light has turned yellow, however, with China’s crackdown on Didi Global, owner of the country’s dominant ride-hailing app. We don’t see imminent risk for value-oriented companies, but the long-term risk is rising.



Earnings season starts next week. Earnings reports are often the primary driver of the shares of our undervalued companies. We look forward to seeing how the business fundamentals are improving and listening to managements’ commentaries and outlooks.



I’d like to invite you to our 9th Annual Cabot Investor Conference, held online again this year, on August 17-19, that’s Tuesday – Thursday. You can see presentations by all of our analysts, which will include updates on their areas of expertise and discussions of their best picks.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.



Thanks!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2022 issue.

While sharp declines in hyper-growth tech stocks to below their pre-pandemic prices may seem like the proverbial “end of days” has arrived, the fall-off is more a return to normal following a period of vast excesses.

There were a lot of positives that built up for the market during February and early March, but that multi-week stretch of improving evidence has certainly run into a wall—the market has taken it on the chin during the past couple of weeks, with the major indexes giving up a big chunk of their gains (the brief intermediate-term trend all-clear is gone), and more worrisome to us, nearly every stock that has run into resistance has at least stalled out, if not come unglued. We don’t believe all of the good vibes built up are out the window; this recent action could easily be part of a longer bottoming process for the market. But we never advise ignoring the evidence in front of us, so we’re pulling our Market Monitor down to a level 5.



This week’s list is heavy on some cyclicals but also some dependable growth outfits. Our Top Pick looks to be one of those, a medical firm with a few good-selling drugs on the market and sold earnings growth projections.

As we roll toward Labor Day, it’s pretty much the same story when it comes to the market: Most of the evidence is at least leaning positive and we see many recent positive earnings reactions, which is a plus—but there also remain many crosscurrents out there, with plenty of selling on strength as many sectors chop sideways. We’re sticking with the same stance—holding our strong performers, but tightening stops on names that wobble and being selective on the buy side, aiming for strong entry points in case more air pockets emerge. We’ll once again leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list was affected by last week’s rotation, but our Top Pick is a name that had a big run but has now dipped in an orderly fashion for the past month.

The cannabis sector remains in a correction, with both marijuana and CBD stocks trending lower, giving up some of their early-year gains—and perhaps building a bottom here.

In the meantime, more and more peripheral companies are getting in on the action, and we have been increasing our exposure to these in recent weeks while still holding substantial cash.

This week we’re selling one more of the pure-play marijuana companies, raising the portfolio’s cash level to about 27%.

Full details in the issue.

Short-term, the market remains under pressure, notwithstanding today’s strength, so certain defensive measures remain appropriate. But long-term, the market’s main trend remains up, so I don’t recommend any wholesale changes, just minor fine-tuning.

Today, that involves upgrading one strong stock to buy, while selling two stocks that have weakened in face of growing fears of tariffs on China.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a high-risk stock with great long-term potential—if we can just get on board at the right time! Details in the issue.

Two stocks depart from the Special Situation Portfolio and the Growth Portfolio today, respectively, while another joins the Growth & Income Portfolio.

The stock market correction came and went rapidly in recent weeks! Granted, stocks are not done bouncing around yet, and a few sectors are lagging the broader market, including energy and healthcare.

Today’s selection is a little-known small-cap stock with a revolutionary process that may change one of the world’s most noxious industrial processes. Plus, I think the stock is at a good entry point here.

Given how tenuous the market looked heading into August, it’s hard not to be pleased with how the month turned out—the wild volatility of May, June and July subsided, leadership emerged and most stocks moved higher. We latched onto more than a few solid winners, which we’re pleased with. But now, with the market having pushed back toward its springtime highs, the rubber is likely to meet the road—the set-ups are there for the indexes and many leading stocks, it’s a matter of whether big investors back from vacation are willing to push stocks higher. Right now, the evidence remains bullish, so we remain optimistic that higher prices are ahead.

This week’s list has many of those set-ups; several stocks have tightened up during the past two or three weeks after bullish earnings reactions. Our favorite of the week is Eagle Materials (EXP), one of many housing-related stocks that look to be near good entry points.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agrium (AGU)	0.00	96-98	-
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	640-660	-
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	39-41	-
Cooper Tire (CTB)	31.50	19-20	-
CYT (CYT)	0.00	66-68	-
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)	0.00	41-43	-
The Flowserve Corporation (FLS)	54.70	122-126	-
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	105-111	-
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)	0.00	31.5-33	-
Zillow (Z)	76.64	40-41	-