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The strong November rally has sputtered out with the S&P 500 up 8.7% for the month so far. Is that the end of this upside leg?

The month started with a bang after the Fed indicated it was done hiking rates, and jobs and inflation numbers seemed to confirm Wall Street’s opinion that interest rates have peaked. The benchmark ten-year Treasury tumbled all the way from 5% at the end of October to 4.34% at midday on Tuesday.

The superb rally that began after October is fading.

November was the best month for the S&P 500 in over a year. But now some reality is starting to set in. Wall Street took the good news about peak interest rates to another level and started pricing in Fed rate cuts early next year. The market is pulling back after the Fed dismissed that notion.

The technology sector is on fire. Before the market opened on Tuesday, the sector was up 5% for the past week, 15% for the last month, and 34% YTD. It’s also up more than 2% on Tuesday. What happened?


The outlook for many sector stocks greatly improved last Thursday. AI, or artificial intelligence, had been seen as a huge growth engine going forward as companies invest heavily in the technology. Those growth projections got a huge shot of adrenaline and the AI phenomenon got real when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings last week.

This market is officially flirting with ugly. The S&P is now down about 7% from the 52-week high and not far from correction territory, down 10% from the high.

The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.

The November rally is alive and well. After the market soared to the highest weekly returns of the year in the first week of the month, the rally sputtered last week. But it has come alive again after a good inflation report.

The market is distinctly more optimistic this month as “soft landing’ hopes revive.

After a rough couple of months, the S&P is trending higher in October. The economy is still solid. In fact, retail sales numbers for September blew away expectations, once again showing that a recession is nowhere in sight.

Inflation is going on. And it’s starting to sink in. Oil prices are soaring. Interest rates are rising. And the Fed is going to have to be more aggressive than previously anticipated about raising rates and reducing stimulus.

January was the worst month for the market since March of 2020. The S&P 500 was down 5.38% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 10% for the month. But stocks are recovering so far in the first week of February as earnings come to the rescue.

It’s official. We are in a correction.

The S&P 500 fell 10% from the high on a closing basis earlier this week. In and of itself, a correction is normal in bull markets, especially considering the current circumstances. After a massive 100% move higher in less than two years, a correction might be considered healthy.

After a good day yesterday, stocks have resumed the decline.

The Russia/Ukraine thing abated yesterday, and the market was thrilled. The thrill is already gone, and investors are back to worrying about inflation and a tightening Fed.

I don’t need a crystal ball to know that people will want to find out which hot technology stock I am recommending. But first, a glimpse into the future.

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Four days ago, I returned from a fabulous 10-day vacation in Ireland and Northern Ireland with my wife.

Top forever stock #8 in my 10-part series on forever stocks is one some people are calling the Netflix of China. And it just came public this year.

Certain businesses are struggling in this high-priced environment. If you own a business, here are a few inflation-fighting strategies.

Small business owners are largely being left out of the inflation conversation, but they’re feeling the pain nonetheless. Fortunately, you can take steps to combat inflation in your own small business.

One of the proverbs that I heard repeatedly was, “The most bullish thing a stock can do is go up.”

In the market, there seems to be some rotation going on. Or at least that was my sense of things over the first two and a half trading days of the week.