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Many analysts have been touting the coming correction, which has not yet appeared.

All of our market timing indicators remain bullish, and the major indexes and many stocks are attempting to resume their post-election uptrends. In the Model Portfolio, we have three changes tonight.

How do you know if you own a “good” stock that will bring you capital gains?

The stock market’s strong and resilient upward march this year to a 32% total return was great. Yet, few, including us, expected such an uplifting outcome in 2019.

In this issue, we give our turnaround market outlook for 2020.

Today’s recommendation is a little-known but mature industrial company with great growth prospects. Chart risk is small, as the stock has been basing for months, but there is some liquidity risk—this is more thinly traded than any of the current stocks in the portfolio. So if you buy, buy carefully.

The possibility of a trade war between the U.S. and China has dealt a blow to many Chinese stocks. Most of the damage is being done by withdrawals from China exchange-traded funds and broader emerging-market or ex-U.S. funds. But whatever the source, the reality is that we have a new warning signal from the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer.

Here in New England, the weather can change quickly. A sunny morning can seemingly without warning turn into a rainstorm by the afternoon. Not that long ago, we had three seasons in a single day – snow in the morning, followed by rain, then summer-like temperatures by three in the afternoon. There’s an old saying, “If you don’t like the weather, wait a few minutes.”

China could be a problem.

After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly tumbled on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.

Looking good. The bull market is enduring the historically troubling months of September and October with nary a sign of resistance.

The S&P 500 is up about 15% year to date and within a whisker of the all-time high, as investors are more excited about earnings than worried about tariffs or the government shutdown. And why shouldn’t they be? Government shutdowns are always temporary. And tariff negotiations always culminate in an arrangement that satisfies the market.

Alibaba (BABA) shares surged 15.5% this week as the company announced that it had completed a roughly $3.2 billion capital raise. Better yet, Baidu (BIDU) shares jumped a stunning 29% in the stock’s first week as an Explorer recommendation.

But could quantum computing be a bigger investment opportunity than artificial intelligence (AI) as the U.S.-China rivalry escalates?

This was a good week for Explorer stocks with Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) up 6.2%, Alibaba (BABA) up 5.9%, Banco Santander (SAN) shares rising 6.2%, and BYD (BYDDY) shares surging 8.1% this week.

It was a painful process with America’s most valuable ally, but a trade/investment deal was finally reached with Japan, which buoyed markets. Frameworks for deals with the Philippines and Indonesia were also agreed to, sending the S&P 500 to a new high. The market seems mostly concerned with China. The reason is that annual S&P 500 revenue from China is $1.2 trillion, roughly four times the U.S. trade deficit with China.

It’s a thorny subject, but one that I think merits at least a brief discussion: direct government intervention as it pertains to the private defense sector—and by extension, to our holding in GE Aerospace (GE).

On January 7, the White House issued an executive order (EO) that prohibited defense companies from making share repurchases and paying dividends to shareholders. It also placed restrictions on executive compensation, except for companies making investments to modernize weapons production facilities.

In baseball, on an infield hit with a runner on third base, the fielder will look directly at the runner before throwing the ball to first base for a sure out. This “look” prevents any attempt by the runner to score – if he takes off for home plate, the fielder will throw him out.

In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments and ratings changes for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), American Airlines (AAL), GE Aerospace (GE), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and UiPath (PATH).


Projected strength in U.S. commercial loan growth and continued increases in M2 money supply bode well for the stock market’s liquidity backdrop.

In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), Kenvue (KVUE), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) and Toast (TOST).

Precious metals miners Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) continue to lead the portfolio after making yet another series of new highs this week.

The S&P 500 and other major indexes finished up yesterday after slightly negative first-quarter economic growth. Not much movement in Explorer stocks this week except Sea Limited (SE), up 11%.

Chinese exports have recently plunged as the psychology of tariffs takes a toll. China relied on exports for about a third of its economic growth last year.