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For new investors, asking “How many shares of this stock should I buy?” is the wrong question.

I previously gave you a heads up that new low-sulfur diesel regulations (IMO 2020) and a serious hog disease in China (African Swine Fever) are quite likely to increase inflation numbers in 2020 and beyond. Are you ready for the next sweeping industrywide change that will be hitting the credit markets?

While tech stocks have boomed this year, financials have lagged. When the economy recovers post-Covid, these 2 big bank stocks should thrive.

It’s been a great market for a while. But it has leveled off since the middle of May. I expect more of the same going forward.

The S&P 500 pulled back in early April after a five-month rally as sticky inflation soured the interest rate narrative. The index then recovered to new highs in the middle of May on an improved interest rate outlook. But stocks have since leveled off as the interest rate outlook got stuck in the mud.

The market has regained its footing, and here comes Nvidia (NVDA).


All eyes are on the Nvidia earnings report scheduled to come out after the closing bell on Wednesday. It was an Nvidia earnings report two years ago that featured a massive demand for artificial intelligence products and services that sparked the AI craze and ignited a powerful rally in technology stocks.

The market has been good for a while. The S&P 500 is up roughly 11% YTD and about 30% since late October. But I expect choppier waters ahead.

The main driver of the S&P has been the technology sector, which is being driven higher by the artificial intelligence catalyst. Most of the rest of the market seems to be at the mercy of the interest rate narrative. And that seems to change every couple of weeks nowadays.

The outperformance of small caps continues.

Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.

All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).

It’s time for all investors to obsess about the Fed again. The Central Bank has its March meeting this week and Wall Street is on pins and needles waiting to hear what they might vaguely insinuate.

All is well with the market so far this year. The S&P is up 6.7% in less than two months. It’s a continuation of the 23% rally that started at the end of October and a more than 40% rise from the bear market low in late 2022.

But recent news may jeopardize the current market dynamic. January CPI was higher than expected and indicated that the current problematic inflation isn’t dead yet. Sure, it’s way down from the 9.1% peak in mid-2022 to 3.1%, but it has been rising for several months and is still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Now that the stock market correction has finally arrived, this weekly update is going to be a little bit different than normal. I’m not going to bother researching and reporting changes in earnings estimates, unless a company (a) just reported quarterly results within recent days and (b) the quarterly results significantly changed the future EPS projections.