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Current Market Outlook


Nothing much changed with the market’s evidence last week: The trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks remain strongly up, and there’s been very little in the way of intermediate-term abnormal selling action out there. On the other hand, many indexes have yet to hit new post-virus highs, fewer stocks are hitting new highs and the leading big-cap indexes are extended to the upside. As always, we put most of our emphasis on the primary evidence, which is why we remain mostly bullish; in fact, we’re nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7 this week. But, while we still favor holding your strong, resilient performers, we also think it’s best to be choosy on the buy side, looking for names that have shown some recent power on earnings or have been running for a few months but have dipped to support.

Happily, this week’s list features many of names that have one of those two chart characteristics. Our Top Pick is Redfin (RDFN), which has been mostly a bust since coming public two years ago but showed overwhelming buying after earnings last week. As with most names, try to enter on some weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Acceleron Pharma (XLRN)	75.11	88-92	78-80
Alteryx (AYX)	132.78	149-155	135-138
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	2100-2150	1940-1970
Appian (APPN)	46.48	56-59	50-52
Envestnet (ENV)	77.12	81-84	74.5-76
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	25-27	21.5-23
iRhythm Technologies (IRTC)	51.15	87-90	78-80
Redfin (RDFN)	40.40	28.5-30.5	24.5-25.5
Sunrun (RUN)	38.40	19.8-20.8	17.8-18.4
Survey Monkey (SVMK)	19.97	20.7-21.4	18.3-18.7

Current Market Outlook


We think last week’s action could prove to be a turning point for the market, not just in the short-term (recovering from a four-plus week retreat) but longer-term, too (as some indexes attack key resistance levels). There are still flies in the ointment (we’d like to see more stocks hitting new highs), so we’re not fully bullish, but the combination of a healthy broad market, the intermediate- and longer-term trends of the market pointing sideways-to-up, and pervasive negative sentiment (nobody believes the market will rise significantly going forward), all bode well going forward. After a trip into neutral territory, we’re bullish again, though we’re still holding some cash in reserve as we wait for more individual stocks to kick into gear.

This week’s list has many great looking charts combined with solid growth stories. Our Top Pick is more aggressive than we’ve had in recent weeks—Veeva Systems (VEEV) has a great growth story and it catapulted higher on earnings, marking what could be a coming out party for the stock. Keep new positions small to start.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Veeva Systems (VEEV)	180.23	31.5-33	28-29
ONEOK (OKS)	0.00	37.5-38.5	33.5-34
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	64-66	57-59
Masimo (MASI)	159.56	48-49.5	44-45
Jack in the Box (JACK)	0.00	81-84	74-76
Dycom Industries (DY)	0.00	80-83	71-73
Dollar Tree (DLTR)	0.00	86-88.5	80-81
Copart (CPRT)	74.80	46-48	42-43
Boston Scientific (BSX)	0.00	21.5-22.5	20-20.5
Abiomed (ABMD)	0.00	98-101	91-93

In November’s Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we discuss the supposed rotation from growth stocks into value stocks and the underlying reasons, which we think could drive erratic market action in the coming weeks. Despite the somewhat conflicting trends out there, we serve up a menu of compelling opportunities spanning Medtech, manufacturing, software and even health and beauty products, which we can all use a little of these days!

Over the past month or so, it seemed like stocks would continue their frenetic surge. This week, however, the market appears relatively lackluster with a lot less excitement. Some investors may yearn for more fireworks, but as a value investor, I find this calm to be more sane.

For the first time in a while we started to see big investors floor the accelerator last week, with some names really letting loose on the upside. Moreover, even the “non-AI” nascent leaders that perked up earlier in May are acting fine, with most digesting gains in normal fashion. All of that is to the good—though the top-down flaws that we’ve written about are all still out there, too, with relatively few stocks hitting new highs, a good number of blowups each week and most areas of the market still struggling. Right now, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at a level 5, but we’re watching things closely—if more leaders emerge, it would certainly add to the bullish side of the ledger.

This week’s list has a bunch of solid growth and earnings-related plays from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is practically a blue chip name from the software field that’s emerging from a solid launching pad.

Rate hikes typically come when the market is trending up, and investors tend to expect these trends to continue—so they do, for a while. So whether the Fed hikes rates this month, next month or months later, don’t be afraid. Remember that the first rate hike, on average, comes in an environment that is beneficial to investors, and thus you should make the most of it.

Quick note: Because next Monday is Memorial Day, our next issue of Top Ten will be published Tuesday after the close, May 28.

The market’s good-looking rebound continued last week, with big-cap indexes notching new highs and most other indexes close to doing so. Granted, a lot of individual stocks are still battling with resistance from their prior highs in February/March and many growth names are set to report earnings during the next couple of weeks. Throw in the fact that sentiment has definitely gotten a bit complacent again and you want to pick your stocks and entry points carefully. Still, right now the intermediate-term trends are up for the market’s major indexes and most leading and potential leading stocks. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 8.

This week’s list has a lot of enticing names, with some showing power and others set up nicely to break out if the bulls remain in control. Our Top Pick is a retail name that appears to be finally getting going after a long, tedious consolidation.

Overall, the market’s action remains as close to pristine as you could hope for. Under the hood, there has been a touch of rotation, with some growth stocks chopping around while cyclical, construction and materials names perk up. All in all, we wouldn’t be surprised if growth continued to catch its breath, as the recent pullback was very brief, but that’s short-term nitpicking: While dips and potholes will come, the bottom line is that the vast majority of evidence is bullish, so you should be, too. We’ll bump our Market Monitor up to a level 8, and think adding exposure (ideally on dips) makes sense.

This week’s list reflects the broadening we’re seeing out there, with a few tech names but many others from other corners of the market. Our Top Pick is a long-term winner in the aerospace and defense field whose stock just broke out.

Small caps are off ever so slightly over the last five sessions, though yesterday’s CPI data and Jerome Powell’s press conference/FOMC meeting helped the asset class bounce back from what was a fairly ugly looking four-day slide. The big-picture takeaway here is that the asset class is suffering from the same type of bad breadth malaise that’s keeping a lid on much of the broader market.

Current Market Outlook


The market is coming off another very solid week, with the major indexes tagging higher highs on solid volume and the early returns from earnings season generally positive. It is fair to say the advance is becoming more selective, with some factors (bad earnings, rising interest rates, falling U.S. dollar) causing certain areas to stall out. Overall, we remain bullish, especially in the longer-term, as this recent unusual strength has historically portended good things down the road. In the near-term, though, you should be taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, ditching stocks that break their intermediate-term uptrends and looking for buying opportunities either on shakeouts (in established leaders) or earnings blastoffs.

This week’s list has everything from turnarounds to speculations to recent earnings winners—there’s a lot to like here. Our Top Pick is AbbVie (ABBV), which has been a steady liquid leader in the biotech space and just popped on earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)	93.53	117-123	106-109
G-III Apparel (GIII)	45.25	37-39	33.5-35
Helmerich & Payne (HP)	63.68	70-74	63-65
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	161-167	147-151
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)	123.40	86-90	77-79
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	122-128	108-112
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)	19.31	21.5-23	19-20
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)	19.00	26-28	24-25
Varian Medical (VAR)	118.33	122-126	113-115
Weibo (WB)	98.16	128-134	115-118

The market’s evidence improved under the surface for much of February and early March, with the strong rally last month only adding to the good vibes. A pullback wasn’t unexpected, but so far, the way things have retreated hasn’t been encouraging, with a lot of potential leaders taking it on the chin and our nascent Cabot Tides buy signal back on the fence.


To be fair, the decline hasn’t cracked the uptrend in the market or most stocks, and a couple of good days would do wonders. But with few stocks really making headway, we advise going slow, adhering to your stops and holding a good chunk of cash.


Earlier this week, we sold one of our recent buys, and while we have no new sells tonight, we are placing a couple more names on Hold and have relatively tight stops in place in case the selling continues.

Current Market Outlook


Along with heaps of snow in the Northeast, February has brought a marked change in character for the general market—the major indexes have moved into new high ground (led by the growth-oriented Nasdaq Composite), and individual stocks have done the same. In the short-term, we have seen a little giddiness take hold, which could easily lead to some potholes and shakeouts. But there’s no doubt that the intermediate-term evidence remains bullish, so we believe dips will present good buying opportunities.

This week’s list has an interesting mix of volatile glamour stocks and bigger-cap companies that are under accumulation. There are many attractive charts, but our Top Pick is CommScope (COMM), a telecom play that’s super-strong after a recent, game-changing acquisition.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow (Z)	76.64	115-122	106-109
VeriSign (VRSN)	190.71	62-64	58.5-59.5
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS)	14.25	24.5-26	22.5-23.5
Ultimate Software (ULTI)	0.00	162-166	152-154
Sony Corp. (SNE)	0.00	25.5-27	23-24
Molina Healthcare (MOH)	0.00	60-63	55-57
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)	0.00	100-104	92-93
FireEye (FEYE)	0.00	41-43.5	37.5-38
CommScope (COMM)	0.00	28.5-30.5	26-26.5
Berry Global (BERY)	64.22	33-34.5	30-31

Sell Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) for a 21% gain and Buy Federated Investors (FII).