Current Market Outlook


The market had been a bit wobbly, but last week brought a bunch of good-looking earnings reactions (not just the mega-cap names on Friday), which has put the sellers back on their heels—the Nasdaq actually kissed new high ground today! Of course, earnings season isn’t over, so it’s possible we see some air pockets emerge, and some of the blemishes we’ve been writing about still exist (the number of new highs continue to dry up a bit even as the Nasdaq pushes ahead). Because of all that, we still think picking your stocks and buy points is important; try to avoid chasing any old thing just because it’s going up. But there’s no question most of the evidence remains bullish, so we advise you to stick with a heavily invested position and buy fresh leaders either on initial pullbacks or powerful earnings moves.

This week’s list has a growth-ier feel as we highlight many of the recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick is Qualcomm (QCOM), which won’t be the fastest horse but just emerged from a huge consolidation and has giant earnings estimates thanks to a huge deal and the 5G boom.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)	82.24	72.5-75.5	63-65
Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)	81.02	74-77	66-68
GenMark Diagnostics (GNMK)	15.47	17-18.5	14.5-15.5
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)	51.30	49-52	43.5-45.5
Pinduoduo (PDD)	87.53	91-96	78-81
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	45.38	34-36.5	29.5-30.5
Pinterest (PINS)	35.86	33.5-37	28.5-30
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)	106.36	106-110	94-96
Qorvo (QRVO)	129.47	127-131	114-116
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)	155.72	154-159	139-142

The market remains in good health and trending higher, spurred on by some very impressive second quarter reports.

This week’s recommendation is a high-risk stock with high potential in the energy industry, and I’m trying to get in near a short-term low here.



As for the current portfolio, many of our stocks are hitting new highs today and there’s only one change—a downgrade of Columbia Sportswear (COLM) to hold.



Full details in the issue.

This year, individual stock performance has largely been driven by a single narrative: how well the underlying companies are positioned for a pandemic-striken world. Those with strong digital-economy businesses have surged, while those with physical-economy businesses have stalled, or worse.

In this issue we recommend a life insurance stock and talk about Dow laggards with rebound potential.

The Nasdaq and growth stocks have a lost a little steam since early July, with fewer stocks moving up and the indexes doing more chopping than trending. That’s a good reason to take your foot off the accelerator, but most of the big-picture evidence remains positive, so we’re holding our strong, profitable stocks and remaining mostly bullish.

In tonight’s issue, we review some of that bullish longer-term evidence, talk a bit about gold stocks and, as always, go over our latest thoughts on the stocks we own and are watching.

The broad market remains healthy (climbing a wall of worry) and the marijuana sector is even stronger!

Leading the way are the big U.S. producers (we own them all), but there’s more, including the Canadian volume leader’s earnings report of today and a surprisingly strong performance from our (totally legal nationwide) hydroponics growing supply store, whose stock was up more than 10% just this morning!



Full details in the issue.

Extreme sector rotation has been the story of the last week as red-hot growth sectors came under some pressure, while out of favor value stocks finally found some buying. This is a fine situation for our diversified portfolio as we are selling expensive calls that help offset any short-term stock/sector weakness. This brings me to our pick of the week, which is in a red-hot sector and recently reported very strong earnings.

Current Market Outlook


After an impressive four-month rebound, many investors are nervously expecting the return of volatility during earnings season. But despite some recent choppiness among the leading stocks, the market remains largely unperturbed. Growth stocks are holding up well, while the major indices remain above their key trend lines. And while there are signs lately of increased demand in defensive areas of the market (like consumer staples and precious metals mining), the more aggressive segments remain strong. Finally, a healthy number of stocks are still making new 52-week highs on both major exchanges (especially the NYSE), while new lows have been remarkably sparse. All of this tells us that the intermediate-term trend still favors the bulls. While volatility may yet rear its head, we’ll continue to follow the weight of evidence.

This week’s list contains a nice mix of some of today’s leading themes: healthcare, internet, real estate/home improvement and education. Our Top Pick is Owens & Minor (OMI), which has a solid story and has broken out of an extended base on more than 10 times normal volume.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Farfetch (FTCH)	26.23	21-22.75	19.5-20
Floor & Décor (FND)	68.03	69-72	62.5-63
GSX Techedu (GSX)	97.59	85-88	74-75
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	30-32.5	27-27.5
Meritage Homes (MTH)	102.20	92-98	84-85
Owens & Minor (OMI)	17.01	15-16	13-13.5
SailPoint Technologies (SAIL)	31.60	30-32	28.5-29
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	110-116	99.5-100
Watsco (WSO)	237.50	220-230	210-212
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	262-275	248-250

The market remains in good health and trending higher, though as always, fine-tuning of your portfolio is required to continue to stay in the right stocks.

This week, that means selling two stocks (SLQT and VRTX), as well as upgrading one (ZM) to buy.



As for the new recommendation, it’s tailor-made for investors looking to maximize income from dividends (it pays a 7.3% yield) and get capital appreciation potential too.



Full details in the issue.

Most of the market’s evidence remains bullish, so we remain optimistic that higher prices are ahead; the Model Portfolio is more than 80% invested in nine strong stocks. That said, it’s not all peaches and cream, as some key indexes are again testing their 50-day lines and we’re still in the thick of earnings season.

This Weekly Update includes earnings updates and expectations on all our portfolio companies. I have no rating changes this week, and most of our holdings are acting quite well.

If you have any exposure at all to small-cap cloud-based software stocks, you’re likely singing in the shower these days. It has been hard to miss with this class of stocks. In our portfolio, our small business cloud software stocks are driving overall portfolio returns with weekly gains of 5% to 10% not uncommon.

At about half way through earnings season, the results look good. Average sales gains for our 27 stocks that have reported thus far are 13%. In today’s Weekly Update, I provides summaries for 16 of our companies that reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week.

The Emerging Markets Timer is in great shape, as the iShares EM Fund is sitting well above its 25- and 50-day moving averages. We have no changes to the portfolio tonight.

It looks like we’re in for an up week in the stock market. Stocks are reacting well to election results in France, in which a moderate candidate took the lead, with an outsider standing in second place. It seems like voters around the world are weary of their recent political regimes, choosing instead to either vote for moderates or vote for opposite political extremes from what they recently experienced.

Small caps got their mojo back this week. The asset class jumped 3.2%, driven by strong performance in consumer discretionary (up 5%), tech (up 4%) and industrials (up 3.7%). In fact, everything was up except energy (down 5%).

Thirteen Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week. This update also includes two Sell alerts.

Our Cabot Tides turned negative last week, though we didn’t take any action in the Model Portfolio as we already had 29% in cash. We’ve seen a modest bounce this week, and with our Cabot Trend Lines and Two-Second Indicator still positive, we think the next big move is up. But until we get a new Tides buy signal, we’re holding some cash and taking things on a stock-by-stock basis.

The odds of a June interest rate increase have now fallen to 47%, from 60% earlier this month. A December rate hike is seen as even less likely, with odds currently at 37%, down from 56%. That’s led to additional gains in bond alternatives like utilities.

A Bloomberg article implies that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is struggling financially. Yet the fact is that Chipotle is a wildly profitable company, with aggressive earnings growth, and without a trace of long-term debt. That’s quite a feat in corporate America.

Small caps continue to trend sideways as they have since the beginning of 2017. In the S&P 600 Small Cap Index, this means trading mostly in the 820 to 860 range with a few spikes above and a few below. There’s no doubt the market rally has lost momentum as the small cap index has traded mostly below its intermediate trend line over the last five weeks.

Rather than wait until Thursday, I would like to let you know that I’m moving one stock to a sell following its 7% decline Tuesday following disappointing news that electric vehicle subsidies in China are being cut 50%.

The top five holdings of this defense fund are: Boeing Co (BA, 20.27%); Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC, 11.93%); General Dynamics Corp (GD, 9.19%); TransDigm Group Inc (TDG, 6.27%); and Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR, 4.99%).

Technology stocks are the leaders, gaining an average 18.7% so far in 2019.

The shares of this auto parts supplier were recently upgraded at Guggenheim to ‘Buy’.

Two stocks in the portfolios have reported earnings and there is news on one other.

Secondly, we are taking some profits.

Three analysts have raised their EPS estimates for our first pick today, and secondly, we are taking some profits.

Coverage of the shares of this enterprise cloud computing company were recently initiated at Mizuho, with a ‘Buy’ rating, and at Stephens & Co. and Atlantic Equities, with an ‘Overweight’ rating.

While the long-term prospects for this industry remain very bright, and I’m thrilled to be your guide to these opportunities, the short-term risks are now high. Which means that someday, there will be a correction, and some investors, particularly those who bought at the top, will lose a lot of money. And I don’t want you to be one of them.

Eight analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this Chinese internet company in the past 30 days.

Crista is adding a stock to the the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio.

The top five sector in this ETF are: Financial, 16.66%, Technology, 16.2%, and Industrials, 15.72%.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.