The market remains very challenging for high-growth stocks. While I have a list of innovative companies I’m excited to recommend (at some point), for now we’ll continue to diversify our portfolio with more value-oriented names.

This month’s new addition is a little-known supermarket chain I’ve been following for some time. The pitch is very straightforward – rising prices and an insulated business model should help the company post impressive growth in 2022 and 2023. Not to mention we have upside if/as the name spreads among investors that are increasingly looking for just this kind of stock.



Last but not least, the chart looks fantastic.

The market has been up and (mostly) down, but not much has changed with our thoughts: The primary evidence remains terrible, though we continue to see more than a few rays of light from some secondary indicators. For now, we’re remaining defensive (we sold two more half positions this week) and are patiently awaiting the bulls to return.



In tonight’s issue, we write about a couple of commodity-names that we’re watching closely, as well as go over some thoughts on handling big losers (it happens to the best of us) and some of those secondary indicators we’ve mentioned--you can cut the bearishness with a knife, so it’s best to at least stay alert to a positive change in the market’s character.

In the April Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we take a look at the earnings calendar for our current portfolio and spread new research around by covering a diverse group of small-cap companies.
We have a newly public (again) pet retailer, a leaner and meaner defense and aerospace company, and a rising star in the fitness studio space. We also upgrade two stocks from our Watch List (and ditch a few others), including a key supplier for the EV market and a rapidly growing IT services company.


Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the May 2022 issue.



One of the enduring features of the stock market is that near-term share prices are driven by momentum and narratives. While this may yield huge money-making stocks on the way up, losses can be devastating on the way down. Fortunately for value investors, downturns driven by negative momentum and unfavorable narratives can create impressively attractive opportunities.



We discuss two groups of stocks that fit this bill: homebuilders and stocks with valuations below 5x EV/EBITDA. Our featured recommendation this month is homebuilder M/I Homes (MHO), which trades at a large discount to its liquidation value despite what may be a reasonably steady industry over the next several years.



We note our recent move of Vistra Energy (VST) from a Buy to a Sell.

We still face headwinds in the market, but action to start the week in Greentech is encouraging. This issue we look at what stocks the “typical” ESG mutual fund and ETF own and examine an undiscovered stock that is showing great strength appealing to health-conscious consumers.

As always, we also suggest three ESG stocks to consider and review our current portfolios.

This week we will add an American energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and pipeline transport, EQT Corp. (EQT).

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the May 2022 issue.

We’re back in the States after an unplanned but superb extended stay in London. It seems that most of the pandemic-driven adrenaline rush in speculative stocks has burned off, leaving a tremendous amount of losses in the wake, while stocks of companies with more enduring business models that trade at prosaic valuations continue to hold their ground or advance.



In the letter, we review earnings reports of several Recommended companies as well as provide updates on all of the others.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

The market was hit hard again last week, so all trends are down, and increased caution is advised.
But I’m not selling any stocks this week, mainly because last week I sold four, and today so many of our stocks are sitting at their 200-day moving averages, thanks to last week’s broad selloff, that I see a good possibility for some bounces.


As for the new recommendation, it’s a well-known discount retailer whose stock is cheap.


Details inside.

There’s been a lot of action of late, mostly on the downside, and this week’s news flow (Fed meeting, jobs report, etc.) is sure to create more. But, really, nothing much has changed with our view: There remain many secondary-type indicators that are at intermediate-term (if not multi-year) extremes, so we’re keeping our eyes open should the buyers show up for more than a day or two. But we have to actually see it to believe it, and to this point, any bounce has been soundly rejected. We’re lowering our Market Monitor to a level 3.



There are still a couple of decent-looking areas, mostly either slow/steady growth firms or special situations. Our Top Pick this week is one of the latter, with an almost hard-to-believe cash flow story.

The sellers continue to come out of the woodwork, with a generally weak environment hitting a big air pocket to end last week, decisively dragging all indexes and the vast majority of individual stocks lower—we’re even seeing the selling spread to the commodity arena, with even the impenetrable defensive areas taking hits. At this point, the major indexes are retesting their January-March lows, and we’re still seeing positive divergences under the surface, but as we’ve been saying for most of the past few months, you have to see it to believe it—right now, there’s no question the trends are pointed down, so we advise staying mostly on the sideline. Our Market Monitor is now at a level 4.



This week’s list is a potpourri of names that are holding well, including some that have lifted thanks to huge earnings beats. Our Top Pick is one of those and, if all goes well, could be part of a new group move.

This was a tough week for all of us as growth stocks, particularly tech stocks, were impacted by concerns over higher interest rates and slower economic growth. Events in China with its economic slowdown and European conflict are not helping matters either. This week we head to Chile for a double commodity play on food and electric vehicles.

Stocks are turning distinctly more bearish in the near term as slower growth in China hits a market that was already teetering in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed.
But the selloff in the indexes doesn’t reflect all stocks. Some stocks have more downside left. Others will likely hold their own even if the market keeps falling. And still other stocks have already been oversold. These stocks should have less downside from here than the overall market, and recover much more quickly when the selling abates.


In this issue, I identify two oversold stocks in the portfolio. These are stocks that have already been crushed and sell at vastly reduced prices despite continuing strong earnings growth. While these stocks may fall further in the weeks ahead if the market gets uglier, I believe they both sell at deep discounts compared to where their prices are likely to be later in the year.

With most of our companies having now reported we are turning our attention back to the longer-term future. For the most part, earnings from our companies were good and we’ve only made a few incremental ratings changes here and there.

Markets are showing great resiliency as the S&P 500 nears a record and stocks have risen all but one day in August. Optimism about an eventual stimulus bill and the prospect of declining Covid-19 cases and a vaccine are still supporting the economy and markets.

The S&P 500 is now within 1% of the all time high. It could even make a new high today. The index has rallied 54% since the lows of March. What pandemic?

We are mostly through the bulk of earnings season and it has been enlightening, particularly as we learn about the pandemic’s effects on profits. Earnings season should be a period when company results can be clearly measured, especially since we are dealing with numbers.

Remain bullish, but continue to keep your antennae up. The Nasdaq has pushed to new highs, our trend-following indicators are positive and most leading stocks remain in uptrends, so we’re still in a bullish frame of mind.

The horrible second quarter is behind us and a rapidly recovering economy with a very accommodative Fed lies ahead. There are a lot of reasons for the rally and unless investors get scared straight the rally seems destined to continue.

The market has resumed its uptrend and the S&P 500 is now back to within 3% of the all-time high.

U.S large-cap markets are more expensive than international developed and emerging markets.

Our portfolio has been largely treading water for a few weeks. That’s not surprising given that we’ve been waiting for earnings season to start (it finally has!) and that there’s this persistent sense that bad news for the economy resulting from the coronavirus equal more stimulus and accommodative fiscal policy equals support for equity markets and, in some ways, good news for certain tech and MedTech companies.

This Chinese e-commerce company is expected to grow by 21.3% next year.

Today, this portfolio stock published a press release that it will make a $1.35 per share distribution on October 27.

In the past month, four analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this utility.

This food company beat analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.70 last quarter.

Yesterday saw strong buying in marijuana stocks across the board, with both U.S. and Canadian stocks benefitting.

Our second recommendation is a short sale of a company that is being weighed down by COVID-19.

Since its $0.06 earnings beat, our first idea today—a restaurant chain—has seen its earnings estimates upgraded by 31 analysts.

Our second recommendation is a sale of a previous pick that has been stopped out.

Our first idea is a food company that is undervalued and is paying a hefty annual dividend yield of 5.22%, paid quarterly

Eight weeks ago as marijuana stocks topped, I began selling and taking profits and that’s worked out well. We’ve lost less than the index, as the correction took down first marijuana stocks and then all stocks. At the same time, our strongest stocks have gained.

Shares of this oil refiner have perked up a bit lately; it still has a high dividend yield of 9.62%, paid quarterly and is in a renewable diesel joint venture.

One of our portfolio stocks moves to Hold

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.