Current Market Outlook


The first week of the year was extremely volatile, but all in all the action ended up positive, with major indexes kissing fresh all-time highs and many leading stocks ending up nicely on the week. Overall, then, not much has changed—the primary evidence remains positive, so we’re content to ride things higher, but there’s little doubt the environment is hot and heavy (basically the opposite of what we saw 10 months ago), so you should continue to keep your feet on the ground (trail stops, take partial profits when available) and be discerning with your buys (aiming to enter after a bit of rest or some sharp shakeouts to support areas).

Because of this, most of our buy ranges are a bit below current prices (looking for pullbacks), though we still see some solid setups. One is Snap (SNAP), which is a clear leader in the internet space and has just returned to its highs after its first test of the 10-week line since its October blastoff.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
8x8, Inc. (EGHT)	35.5	32.5-34.5	27.5-29
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	116.8	108-112	97-99
The Mosaic Company (MOS)	26.8	25-27	21.5-22.5
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	364.6	345-360	310-320
Progyny (PGNY)	44.9	40.5-43	36.5-38
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	54.4	53-55	47-48.5
Spotify (SPOT)	344.2	335-347	297-304
Sunrun (RUN)	95.8	87-91	74-77
Vale S.A. (VALE)	18.6	17.4-18.2	15.8-16.2
Zillow (Z)	143.2	134-140	119-122

As we move into a new year, the market shrugs off the chaos engulfing Capitol Hill and the GOP losing its majority in the U.S. Senate. Expect higher federal spending and debt in the next couple years, though it should be mentioned that we have already added $8 trillion to the national debt over the past four years. There were a few bright spots but Explorer stocks in general drifted a bit lower over the last week.

Today we have a new recommendation of a company of at the forefront of the technology revolution.

In the closing days of 2020, when many people were focused on preparing for the holidays, a small software company went public through a SPAC IPO. The event occurred on December 23.

Part customer relationship management (CRM) platform, part lead generation and marketing platform, the company’s software helps home services companies grow and manage their businesses, and it streamlines the move-in and post-move journey for homeowners.



The stock represents a compelling way for investors to gain exposure to evolving consumer and business trends related to the housing market and home services, especially home inspection, moving, insurance and utility services. After a pandemic-affected 2020 growth could top 60% in 2021, then remain well above 30% for the foreseeable future.



All the details are inside. Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2021 issue.

With the turning of the calendar, we list eleven long-term secular trends that we see shaping the world for years to come. We also include four additional trends that investors may think are enduring yet which we have less certainty about their ability to continue indefinitely.



Contrarian investors can benefit from considering these trends. Sometimes the most appealing stocks are those that superficially go against them.



The current recommended list includes 14 names, with Merck (MRK) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) added this month. Earning season is starting soon, so we’ll get updates on how these companies are faring and provide our commentary and analysis on them.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

The Cabot Profit Booster portfolio had a spectacular 2020, aided by great stock picks from Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo, “juicy” call premiums which we sold via our covered call strategy, and a generally strong market. Now that the calendar has flipped to 2021, we will stick to the plan, and manage our open positions with an eye out for risk, while continuing to sell covered calls on the best of stocks. This brings me to today’s recommendation …

The market sold off broadly this morning, and it certainly needed it. The market has been too strong for too long! But the main trend remains up and thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested.

Today’s recommendation is a search technology company with fast growth and great growth prospects, first recommended by Mike Cintolo.



As for our current holdings, I have two sell recommendations today, B&G Foods (BGS) and Zoom Video (ZM).



Full details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


After a prosperous last 12 months, 2021 got off to a sour start today, though that wasn’t totally surprising—early-January is known for crosscurrents and profit taking (especially after good years) as big investors un-hedge and reposition their portfolios. That doesn’t mean today’s weakness should be excused, but what counts most is what happens from here: Another couple of rounds of sharp selling in the leaders and major indexes (possibly coinciding with some intermediate-term breakdowns) would tell us the bears are making a stand, while a quick show of support in many key stocks will be a good sign. We’re keeping our eyes peeled, but so far, the trends of the market and the vast majority of stocks remains up, so we remain mostly bullish, though are continuing to pick our spots.

The first Top Ten list of the year is a mixed bag in terms of stocks and sectors. Our Top Pick is Bill.com (BILL), which is finding support after a normal, early-stage retreat.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AGCO Corporation (AGCO)	102	99-103	89-91
Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)	84	74-78	62-64
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	138	133-138	119-122
BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO)	64	61-64	53-55
CrowdStrike (CRWD)	201	194-202	167-172
Inari Medical (NARI)	85	81-85	71-73
Kohl’s (KSS)	39	37.5-39.5	33-34
Lam Research (LRCX)	478	460-480	420-430
Lemonade (LMND)	113	106-113	90-94
MongoDB (MDB)	350	342-352	310-315

It’s been a great year for growth stocks, and we’re glad to have easily outperformed the major indexes, adding to our longer-term track record. Whatever the exact numbers, we hope you enjoyed a prosperous 2020, and have a great and healthy New Year.

That said, we’re always looking ahead. Big picture, we remain bullish, but growth stocks have hit a bit of a pothole this week, which wasn’t totally unexpected. We’re not reacting to the action yet, though we’re also comfortable holding our 19% cash position and see what comes as the calendar flips.

The iShares EM Fund (EEM) is well on top of its moving averages, which keeps the Emerging Markets Timer remains firmly positive. We have one change tonight.

The U.S. economy is showing modest growth with improvement in capacity utilization, home sales and industrial production, and the bull market continues with Dow closing above 26,000 yesterday.

The stock market remains very strong, and a third of S&P stocks hit new 52-week highs on Friday. The Dow traded over 26,000 for the first time ever yesterday, although all the major indexes then pulled back to end the day lower. Interest rates continue to rise, causing more pain for REITs and utilities, and earnings season has begun in earnest.

Cabot analyst Tyler Laundon writes the introduction to this week’s update. Unsurprisingly, it related to small-cap stocks, which is Tyler’s focus in Cabot Small-Cap Confidential. One rating change.

Our portfolio has soared over the past week right along with the market. Our average gain is 3.2%, and our stocks are beating their benchmark by around 20%.

Remain bullish, but be a bit choosy on the buy side. The market has had a good run but the normal January crosscurrents are pushing around some of last year’s winners. The portfolio now has 10 stocks and a cash position near 16%.

As you can tell by glancing at the portfolio summary table at the bottom of this update, the market is healthy. I’m putting two stocks back on Buy today.

When I do research for this weekly update, I review the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates for each portfolio stock. The consensus estimate represents the average of all the estimates of the Wall Street analysts who do research on the company. This past week, estimates surged more than I’ve ever seen, involving a majority of our portfolio stocks, and involving much more than the typical one- or two-penny per share increases.

The iShares EM Fund (EEM) has raced past its 25-day (upper) moving average, giving us a solid buy signal from the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer that is supported by similarly strong performance from the Golden Dragon ETF.

There were again no significant movements among our stocks in the past week, but many of our stocks went up to their fair values.

Trading remained muted this week, with markets closed Monday for New Year’s Day. Wall Street began to return to work yesterday, and got the New Year off to a good start with solid gains in all the major indexes. On the flip side, some conservative high yield investments, like utilities and preferred shares, declined.

There has been very little going on in our portfolio this week. After last week’s 3.5% average gain, our stocks have moved only -0.5% this week, on average.

One of our portfolio stocks reported strong second-quarter (2Q) results this morning, benefiting from higher fares and fuller planes.

Three analysts have raised the EPS estimates of this medical device company in the last 30 days.

The marijuana sector’s charts have been weak overall since the sector’s March top.

This sleep-focused company has risen nicely and is getting near sell territory.

The following four brokerages have recently maintained their ‘Buy’ ratings on this tech stock: B. Riley, Nomura, and Stifel Nicolaus. As well, Raymond James upgraded the shares to ‘Outperform’.

The shares of this fitness center company were just added to the Russell 1000 index.

The shares of this semiconductor stock were just initiated at Wedbush with an ‘Outperform’ rating.

The top three sectors in this fund are: Technology (45.76% of assets), Industrial (40.52%), and Healthcare (12.33%)

Here are the latest rating changes on this tech stock.

In the past 30 days, 22 analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this beauty retailer.

This tech stock beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.04 last quarter, and the company is expected to grow at a 33.2% annual rate over the next five years.

Early Tuesday morning Biopharmaceutical giant AbbVie (ABBV) announced plans to acquire Ireland-based Allergan plc (AGN) for $63 billion. The market hates the deal and AbbVie stock plummeted over 16% on the day. Let’s take a look at the deal and see what’s going on.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.