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Emerging markets (EEM) continue to gain ground, and just today moved above their 200-day average. Since the S&P 500 index bottomed the day after Christmas, the EEM has risen 14% to reach a seven-month high.

One of the minor predictable patterns that the stock market has developed over the years involves the days before and after holidays (like the Fourth of July). Basically, stocks do a little bit better on those days, but the pattern is neither big enough nor dependable enough to make money on. Still it’s worth keeping in mind as you watch the action of stocks this week.

A few weeks ago, we introduced the Gartner Hype Cycle, which traces the path that all tech companies follow in what essentially is an immutable law of tech investing. Currently, tech stocks have passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and are sliding down to the Trough of Disillusionment. A few will ascend back to prosperity along the “Slope of Enlightenment” if they maintain both their relevance and their competitive edge. But most will lose one or both of these traits and thus continue downward in what could be labeled the “Decline into Oblivion.”

Cisco Systems (CSCO) announced a huge $28 billion deal for security software specialist Splunk (SPLK). Regardless of concerns over the economy, rising interest rates, the incipient tech-driven Cold War II, rising government focus on anti-trust and other macro issues, there will always be blockbuster deals. We dig into the deal in our comments below on Cisco.

We’re going to take a swing at Natural Grocers (NGVC) today by filling the second half of our position. It’s foolish to think you can time a “bottom” perfectly, but there’s enough evidence here to suggest we can buy the stock at a solid discount now and, hopefully, catch a significant updraft in the weeks and months ahead.

The awful financial market conditions continue to deteriorate. As everyone knows, the domestic stock market ticked below its midsummer low and is now down over 23% from its November 2021 peak. Stock prices in developed country markets have fallen in local terms just as much if not more that the major U.S. stock indices. Emerging market returns (in local terms) have slid 21% YTD. With the awe-inspiring gains in the U.S. dollar, up 19% YTD, global stock returns for American investors have been downright dismal.

Last week, we rolled our valuation and earnings estimate table forward by a year, dropping the 2022 estimates and adding the 2024 estimates.

Be cautious. Growth stocks have been under pressure since early/mid-October, and our Cabot Tides buy signal has fallen by the wayside.

Note: We’re blasting out this week’s update a day early given the Good Friday holiday. We hope you have a great long weekend.

Welcome to the inaugural issue of Cabot Income Advisor. It is my pleasure to share investment ideas that can provide you with a high income in today’s low interest rate world.
In this issue I highlight three stocks that are great buying opportunities right now for income investors. The stocks are chosen for their high yields, ability to generate attractive call premiums and the likelihood of capital appreciation over time.


While the market indexes have rebounded strongly from the March lows, many individual industries and stocks are still dirt cheap and high yielding, In fact, this is the best market in over a decade in which to find high yields in quality stocks.


Of course, the market is still dangerous and many high yielding stocks are in a precarious financial condition. Many will have to cut the dividend and the price will likely fall. While quality high yields are out there, stocks must be chosen wisely.


These three stocks are a great way to lock in high income and start to build your high income portfolio. Now is the time to embark on your journey to higher income and a more rewarding financial future. I look forward to being your trusted partner.

We summarize our recent monthly edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter as well as the Catalyst Report,
provide comments on our companies that reported earnings or had other meaningful news. Also, some thoughts on the war in Europe.

The fact that the major indexes and, especially, a ton of growth stocks bounced sharply late last week is a bullish sign; it at least tells you buyers are still interested, especially when it comes to some fast-growing names that recently reported outstanding results. That said, we can’t conclude the market is off to the races again—all the major indexes (save the Nasdaq) are still below their 50-day lines, the number of stocks hitting new highs is still tiny, and much of the broad market has taken on lots of water. Some new buying is fine, as is holding your top performers, but be sure to hold some cash until the market confirms a new uptrend.

This week’s list has a bunch of stocks that are acting bullishly, including a few that recently gapped up on earnings. Our Top Pick is Michael Kors (KORS), a well-sponsored name that reported a blowout quarter last week. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Yelp (YELP)	41.30	86-92	75-76
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	133-138	124-125
USG Corp. (USG)	0.00	31-33	29.5-30
Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP)	0.00	95-99	89-90
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	63-65	57-58
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	91-96	83-84
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	62.5-65	54-55
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	102-107	89-90
Tableau Software (DATA)	126.42	84-88	78-80
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)	0.00	36.5-38.5	32-33

From iron condors to bull put spreads, Jacob Mintz, editor of Cabot Options Trader, highlights a variety of options strategies, and discusses some trading positions on his buy list.

We don’t yet know what the inflation rate for June will be (report is due July 15), but in the latest Federal Reserve meeting—reading between the lines—it seems economists expect the Fed to lower rates a couple of times during the remainder of the year.

And, just in the last few days, it’s been reported that Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates three times.

We’ll see.

There are never any guarantees in the market, but after a very tough 2022, just about all of the top-down evidence (and our indicators are now bullish). We’re not big on labels, but we’re clearly seeing bull market behavior; while leadership usually develops over time (and we’re seeing that here), it’s best to continue stepping into the market as long as things remain in good shape.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we write about some new names go through a variety of topics after that, relaying some thoughts based on various questions we’re receiving.

Few things are more enduring than America’s love of a good hamburger. Indeed, the iconic sandwich is so much a part of the country’s pop cultural heritage that, according to numerous opinion polls, it’s one of the first things foreigners mention when asked to name the most American symbol they can think of.

The market weakness that I mentioned last week has vanished, and with it my cautious stance. Thus, this week’s stock is what we call a zinger—a stock that has been hot, and will likely remain hot for a substantially longer period of time as investors learn about its great growth story.

The market had a nice run in October, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 14% for the month.

The economy continues to look pretty good, with manufacturing steady, construction spending up, and employment still healthy, despite a 200-basis point increase in the unemployment rate, now 3.7%.

The Federal Reserve once again boosted the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% this month, which the markets had already built in. Right now, it looks like Fed Chair Jerome Powell may target rates even higher than the 4.5-4.75% initially projected, but the rate increases might come in smaller doses.

Some of the positives that we saw in the latter half of August are still hanging around, not the least of which is a good amount of resilience from growth stocks that popped higher on earnings or otherwise saw good-volume buying. That said, the market as a whole doesn’t look ready, with last week bringing another round of selling in the broad market and the major indexes—the intermediate-term trend never could turn up, and few stocks are really moving up at this point. Long story short, there are some encouraging pieces of evidence, but more patience is likely needed. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6.

This week’s list is pretty well-rounded, with stocks from a variety of groups and of different sizes and profiles. Our Top Pick is a clear winner in the drug space with two big sellers; we’re OK grabbing a few shares here or (preferably) on dips.