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The market has been tripped up by what seems to be an overreaction to the potential economic disruption of the coronavirus, but which is more likely the result of a trifecta of potential issues including coronavirus, a previously elevated market trading at high multiples, and uncertainties related to this year’s Presidential election.

Our stocks will start to report the week after next. And with nothing looking totally overstretched or completely beat up (though a few positions bruised), we’re holding the line today.

Remain bullish, but keep your eyes open. The overall market looks fine, but remains extended to the upside, which makes finding lower-risk entry points more difficult. We continue to advise holding your uptrending stocks to give them a chance to turn into bigger winners.

Remain bullish, but be a bit choosy on the buy side. The market has had a good run but the normal January crosscurrents are pushing around some of last year’s winners. The portfolio now has 10 stocks and a cash position near 16%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose over 3.1% last week following several strong economic releases and a handful of speeches by current and incoming Fed members. That’s kept utilities and other high-yield investments depressed for another week. Most of our holdings are looking constructive and a few potentially on the cusp of big breakouts.

The New Year is a wild one so far in the market with big up and down swings. The Dow was down big Monday and it’s up big today as bank stocks have caught fire.

It appears that we will have a sharply divided government in Washington, which Wall Street initially is taking as a positive. A better way of putting it is that it could have been much worse for investors.

Global markets were all mixed up this week as old world-type stocks moved higher and new world stocks—mostly tech—sold off. Things have normalized a little over the past two sessions however as investors appear to have come to their senses and realized that, while tech might have moved too far too fast, many high-flying technology stocks are doing so well because they’ve been growing at high rates, quarter after quarter, and they look like they’ll continue to do so.

REITs have strengthened since our last update, despite the near-certainty that the Fed will hike rates next month. The strongest performers include residential, data center and storage REITs, and a select group of retail REITs. Utilities, industrials and health care stocks have also had a good week, while financials and materials stocks have stumbled.

There is this widely held belief that January is a great month for investors. But I always throw cold water on this claim because the fact is, over the past 25 years, it’s been one of the worst months for stocks.

Emerging and global markets struggled this week as our Emerging Market Timer remained negative, with the EEM clearly trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

We had four companies report earnings this week and I’ve already updated you on three of them through Special Bulletins. A review of the fourth, as well as incremental updates on our other positions, is provided in today’s Update. Overall, my stance is still cautiously optimistic.

Cabot’s intermediate-term market timing indicators are now on the fence, and I recommend holding off on significant new buying for now, unless you’re substantially underinvested. We’re not selling anything today, but I am putting Xcel Energy (XEL) on Hold.

Here some of the most common questions Mike Cintolo gets from the readers of Cabot Top Ten Trader.

All in all, the evidence has continued to show some marginal improvement in recent weeks among individual stocks, plus, some top-down measures (long-term trend, health of the broad market) are looking better … but not quite enough for green lights. All in all, what we’re seeing are steps in the right direction—the market and many individual stocks are doing what they have to in order to repair the damage. But we still need to see continued progress to really extend our line, as little is being sustained on the upside. We’ll again keep our Market Monitor at a level 5.

This week’s list is a hodgepodge of names from different sectors and in different positions in their charts. Our Top Pick is a biotech name that, after many stops and starts, looks to have finally broken out on the upside.

The market’s nascent downturn remains in effect, with the short-term trend of most indexes and sectors pointed down and with growth stocks bringing up the rear (though today was a good first step to reverse that). Even so, the pullback from a top-down perspective continues to look normal, so we’re not hiding in our storm cellar, either—we’re hanging onto our resilient, profitable stocks while nibbling here or there on high-odds opportunities. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.

One of the more encouraging things of the past three weeks is that we’re not having trouble finding good-potential names with solid charts, and this week’s list is no different. Our Top Pick is a great growth story and now, after a couple of bad years, all of the firm’s metrics are pointed in the right direction.

In the October Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, I dig into a group of software companies that have upside potential from AI, automation and security. I also feature a diversified bioprocessing and advanced materials company that’s drawing attention right now and go deeper into a very small industrial company that few investors have ever heard of.

As always, there’s something for everybody!

The market held its own last week and we’re now even seeing the worst areas out there bounce as a bit of stability shows up in the banking sector. That said, on the charts, not much has changed—some growth stocks are acting resiliently but the broad market is still buried. We’re open to anything, including the scenario where an easier Fed combined with limited bank reverberations leads to a sustained advance. Right now, most of the market is hanging in there, but we need to see continued buying before changing our stance. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5 today.

This week’s list is a bit broader with some turnaround situations out there. Out Top Pick is an old pandemic darling that, after crashing, has spent months bottoming out and is now perking up

The market has continued its volatility since mid-August, rising above 34,000 on the DJIA, then contracting, just to bolt upward again at the end of last week. Economic uncertainty and fears of a recession, although recently economists have been decreasing their likelihood for a 2022 recession, effectively pushing that into 2023.

The unemployment rate for August unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, but unemployment claims in the past week were less than forecast. It’s still a great market for folks looking for jobs.



We’ll have new housing stats next week, but anecdotally, I can tell you that prices are still being reduced in my region, but sales activity has increased, after about a six-week lull.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the October 2022 issue.

As stock prices tumble under the twin pressures of rising interest rates and the likely arrival of an economic downturn, just about every new stock pick is destined to be a disappointment. How does one select stocks in such an environment? While most fresh ideas will be near-term duds, there is an important purpose to picking new ideas. And, one doesn’t need to buy full positions right away. We screen for low P/E stocks on depressed 2023 earnings, with estimates for those earnings that are increasing. These make good stocks in which to take starter positions.

We also sorted through stocks with high dividend yields and highlight two picks and two pans (with enticing yields yet have serious dividend risks).

Our feature recommendation this month is Dow (DOW). Its shares have been sold by fearful investors, but the company’s low valuation doesn’t recognize the improvements in its financial strength and cost structure since the dark days of early 2020, nor the attractive yet sustainable dividend yield.