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As we wrote in last week’s issue, we started to see some extremes out there when it comes to selling pressure, with a few different breadth-related measures nearly reaching levels seen at prior major lows of the past decade. And the major indexes did mostly hold their Monday lows for the rest of the week, even flashing an encouraging turnaround on Friday with a couple of minor positive divergences, before today’s pop higher. The question is how far this nascent bounce can go--so far the Nasdaq has bounced about 1,000 points after declining 3,100, and up action has been limited to just a day or so before the sellers are back at it. That can always change, of course—in fact, we think the odds are decent that it will—but our point is that the onus remains on the buyers to continue to step up to form a workable low the market can build from. In the meantime, we’re sticking with the same cautious stance, holding plenty of cash and keeping new positions small.



This week’s list is actually fairly mixed between sectors, with some commodities, some biotechs and some earnings winners. Given the environment, our Top Pick is Corning (GLW), which isn’t their fastest horse, but it has a solid business and a very good chart, having just enjoyed a nice buying cluster after earnings.

Small caps continue to move higher so keep leaning bullish, but be mindful that we’re near a resistance area and that it’s equally likely we will see some softness as it is that we will see more strength.

The market has finally gotten off its knees, but our two main trend-following indicators are bearish and most stocks are still in rough shape. I advise you to remain patient and defensive but we could nibble on a stock if the market continues to power ahead. Since we sold a position on Monday, no rating changes to the portfolio tonight.

The market has calmed down a bit as the Nasdaq is virtually unchanged in the last week and the Dow, meanwhile, made some decent strides, gaining 1% to reach a new six-month high. Several of our stocks have taken encouraging steps forward since last Wednesday and I have no rating changes today.

Blackstone Group, an alternative asset manager, held an Investor Day on September 21 for the first time in four years.

One of the stocks in our Growth Portfolio issued new quarterly adjusted earnings guidance this morning, pleasing investors and sending the stock up 6% upon the market’s open.

As we close out the fourth week of 2019 small caps are looking good.

The Nasdaq has sold off last week but thankfully the selling was limited to growth stocks and like the Dow, our portfolio has been largely unscathed. There’s no reason to panic and we’ll watch for any more signals of a longer or larger correction. Two rating changes today with one position going back on Buy and another moving to hold.

The stock market has started September with a small pullback but the big picture is still bullish. If you’re underinvested, it’s time to come off the sidelines. Most of the stocks in our portfolio are healthy, and I’m putting one of our holdings back on Buy today.

It’s time to do a little buying. The market’s trends are still pointed down, so we still think going slow and stepping lightly makes sense. We are adding three new half positions to the portfolio tonight and keeping our cash position around 67%.

Just when the market seemed to be back on track, it had a terrible day. After rallying 13.6% from the Christmas Eve low and regaining most of what it lost since the September high, the S&P 500 fell 1.42% on Tuesday. I believe the market will likely trend higher but not by a lot, favoring the more recession-resistant plays. That’s the story right now but as result of the recent action, we have two rating changes in the portfolio.

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This was a tough week for all of us as growth stocks, particularly tech stocks, were impacted by concerns over higher interest rates and slower economic growth. Events in China with its economic slowdown and European conflict are not helping matters either. This week we head to Chile for a double commodity play on food and electric vehicles.

Current Market Outlook


In the market, it’s the unexpected that you should pay closest attention to. Two weeks ago, the broad market was heading south and the major indexes broke down after a month of distributive action. But since then, the market has zoomed ahead like a rocket, with all the major indexes back above their 50-day lines and many stocks either hitting new highs or racing toward the top of multi-week launching pads. There are still some things to worry about, and we’ll probably get a truer read on things once the big boys come back from vacation next week. But overall, we’re leaning bullish, encouraged by what we’ve seen during the past two weeks.

This week’s list shows a bunch of stocks that have shown big-volume buying of late, a sure sign institutions are sniffing around. Our Top Pick this week isn’t a stock we think is going to double, but rather, one we feel strongly will head higher. It’s Home Depot (HD), the granddaddy of housing stocks, which just busted free from a 15-month base.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	23-25	20-21
Sensata Technology (ST)	0.00	47-49	44-45
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	340-350	319-320
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)	0.00	61-63	57-58
Home Depot (HD)	0.00	88-91	83-84
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	129-135	119-121
F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)	0.00	120-122	113-114
Community Health Systems (CYH)	0.00	50-52	46-47
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)	0.00	34.5-35.5	31-32
Akorn (AKRX)	0.00	37-38.5	34-35

The market could be a bit vulnerable in the short-term, but our market timing indicators remain bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we’re putting one stock on Hold, but we’re adding a new stock. That will leave us with about 20% in cash.

Before the opening bell today, one of our stocks issued preliminary Q4 2016 results that came in below expectations.

Sell one of our stocks. There is nothing wrong at the company, and earnings are growing at an attractive rate. However, the share price is quite fairly valued, with the 2018 EPS and dividend growth rates equal to the 2018 P/E.

Note: We’re blasting out this week’s update a day early given the Good Friday holiday. We hope you have a great long weekend.

With the VIX just coming off a three-year low, it may be time to hedge your portfolio with options. Here are a few ways you can do it.