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Patience remains a virtue in this market, as the major indexes and individual stocks have been unable to get going, though for the most part, sellers have failed to take control, too. We’ll see if today changes that; today’s post-Fed selling was ugly, though it hasn’t cracked our Tides buy signal or most stocks that were setting up. Either way, we’re remaining defensive, with nearly three quarters of the portfolio in cash.

Tonight’s issue is very stock heavy, with a big watch list and write-ups on on a variety of names (including some recent IPOs) that are acting well and have great stories. We continue to think a few good days could make all the difference, but until we see it happen, less remains more as we keep our eyes open for signs the buyers are showing up and the sellers have left the building.

Stocks are finally showing signs of life. After a miserable six-week stretch, stocks – with an assist from cooler inflation numbers – appear to be getting in gear. How long the new rally will last may depend on things like Q4 earnings, the early days of Donald Trump’s second term, and what Jerome Powell says next week. But for now, let’s strike while the iron is hot, or at least warm, and add a growth stock whose name you might recognize since so many people use their platform these days. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Details inside.

While some major indexes are hanging in there and many cyclical areas look pretty good, growth stocks have suffered another sharp leg down, with many with crash-type declines last week. With that said, there are some rays of light, including a minor new lows divergence, continued buying bursts that usually portend solid long-term results and the fact that some cyclical areas are trying to get going from big consolidations. Monday’s panic selling might be a workable low, but still, we need to see more before putting much money back to work.

There’s been a lot of bad news in the past couple of weeks, but nothing has changed with the market--it’s still trending down, and the broad market remains on the outs, and today, we started to see the first signs that even the many resilient stocks are coming under the gun. Big picture, we’re continuing to advise a cautious stance with much more cash than stocks and patience as we wait for the bulls to re-take control.


And we do think they can re-take control, possibly sooner than most think: There’s so much negativity and bearishness out there that any spark could ignite a big rally, if not a sustained uptrend. But as always, we have to see it first to act on it, so we’re continuing to stay close to shore--we’re selling one name tonight and placing the rest on Hold.


We spend most of tonight’s issue discussing the overwhelming negativity out there, which is setting the stage for the next advance, as well as diving into a handful of new names to watch, including one cheap cookie-cutter story that looks ready to go if the market can stabilize.

The market has done about as good a job as could be expected rebounding off its March 23 low, and that makes for an interesting setup next week: If the major indexes can continue to strengthen, we could get a Tides buy signal, and that could also coincide with some bullish blastoff signals, too. To this point, though, the trends have yet to turn up, so we advise a defensive stance -- but we’re certainly keeping our eyes peeled for further unusual strength.

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The market has definitively changed character, with our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator now negative—when combined with breakdowns among leading growth stocks, the odds favor more short-term weakness ahead. We’ve been holding some cash for a while and have boosted that this week, with 37% on the sideline, and we could raise more if the selling continues.

That said, we’re not aiming to hide out in our bunkers--following some short-term pain, the odds favor further long-term gains given the underlying trend and the lack of big-picture abnormal action out there. Thus, having taken partial profits in many names, we’re OK giving them a chance to find support, as some are likely to have another leg up after this downturn. In tonight’s issue, we’re moving a couple more stocks to Hold, hanging onto our cash and writing about many names that are taking the selling in stride and could have upside if the market finds its footing.

Investors weren’t surprised by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, but they also didn’t react by ramping up their stock purchases—too much uncertainty what with the election rhetoric heating up and the turmoil in Congress, after Kevin McCarthy was unceremoniously ousted as Speaker. And now, we have the war in Israel.

Buffett, Graham, Icahn, Templeton ... these are just a handful of seven legendary investors that have helped define what investing success means for generations. In this month’s issue, we’ll investigate the strategies that made these investors titans of the industry, what they have in common, and how you can adopt those strategies to achieve greater profits in your own portfolio.

Trouble comes from where investors least expect it, so it’s not surprising to us that the Russia-Ukraine situation is making investors nervous. Is there a chance this is the event that capsizes the market? Of course there is—and that’s why you should watch your stops and risk. But after such a powerful rally for much of February among the major indexes and many stocks, the odds favor the first dip being buyable, at least among leading stocks. That doesn’t mean the pullback can’t last a few days (news-driven ups and downs are likely in the short-term), but with the overall uptrend intact, we remain optimistic.

This week’s list isn’t as growth-oriented as the past few weeks, but there are still more than a few good stories here. Our Top Pick is Avis Budget (CAR), a well-known firm with surprisingly solid earnings growth prospects as global travel increases.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
58.com (WUBA)	0.00	46-48	41-42
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)	0.00	36-38	34-35
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	0.00	93-95	85-87
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	54-57	49.5-50.5
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	320-330	275-280
Penn Virginia (PVA)	0.00	14-14.5	12-12.5
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	95-100	85-90
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	105-112	91-92
Avis Budget Group (CAR)	0.00	45-47	41-42
Basic Energy Services (BAS)	0.00	21.5-23	19-20

The evidence has generally improved during the past two weeks, with the major indexes remaining in solid uptrends and, most encouragingly, more growth-oriented stocks showing power and emerging from basing structures. All of that is to the good, but earnings season is ramping up, and we know that can change any stock’s or sector’s outlook in a hurry. Put it together, and we’re still sticking with our lean bullish stance—now’s probably not the time to buy five or six stocks at once, but there are many attractive names out there, and getting in at opportune times should pay off.

This week’s list is heavy on growth stocks, though there are a couple of cyclical and special situation ideas, too. Our favorite of the week is HomeAway (AWAY), a firm we remain keen on, and a stock that’s testing support for the first time since a powerful November breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
T-Mobile US (TMUS)	0.00	30-32	27-28
SolarCity (SCTY)	0.00	70-74	63-64
Altisource Residential (RESI)	0.00	31.5-33	29-29.5
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	63-65	53-55
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	60-62.5	55-56
The Manitowoc Company (MTW)	0.00	23.5-25	21.5-22
Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR)	0.00	87-90	80-81
Forest Labs (FRX)	0.00	65-70	59-60
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	40-42	37-37.5
AOL, Inc. (AOL)	0.00	48-50	44-45

After huge runs during the past six months, the evidence of the past few weeks indicates that most growth stocks have topped for the intermediate-term; sure, things can always change during earnings season, but most of the “hot” growth stocks will likely need time to build new launching pads. The key going forward will be whether the selling in growth stocks spreads to the broad market—that hasn’t happened yet, and in fact, we’re seeing many quality set-ups (and a few real breakouts) among some cyclical-type stocks. It’s encouraging, but for now we’re content to watch and wait to see if selling spreads or if buyers return.

This week’s list features many resilient names in less-sexy industries that nevertheless still have great potential. Our favorite of the week is Diebold (DBD), an older tech player whose earnings should boom in the quarters ahead.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Domtar (UFS)	0.00	108-114	100-102
Under Armour (UA)	0.00	110-120	102-104
Tata Motors Limited (TTM)	0.00	32-34	29-30
US Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)	0.00	34-36	31-32
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)	261.52	123-126	112-115
Ingram Micro (IM)	0.00	28-29.5	26-27
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)	49.89	14-15.5	12-13
Diebold (DBD)	0.00	38-40	34-36
Comstock Resources (CRK)	0.00	21-22	19-19.5
Baker Hughes (BHI)	0.00	63-66	60-61

Last week we wrote that usually the first shakeout after a multi-week thrust isn’t the last, and indeed, we’ve seen some follow-on profit-taking among the market’s strongest stocks. There has been a little abnormal action here and there (mostly in biotech, but some elsewhere, too), but so far, the vast majority of stocks are simply pulling back after big-volume moves to new highs. If the selling spreads and the uptrend fails, then we’ll change our advice. But, as usual, we advise going with the weight of the evidence, which today remains bullish. Thus, hold your top performers, and adding a stock or two on dips is still favored.

This week’s list has a diverse flair to it—it’s not all high-flying stocks like we saw during February. But there is still plenty to like, including our Top Pick, Novo Nordisk (NVO), which has a solid growth story and a chart that’s at a fine entry point.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Under Armour (UA)	0.00	110-115	99-102
Trina Solar (TSL)	0.00	17-18	14-15
SouFun (SFUN)	0.00	88-90	78-80
Qihoo 360 (QIHU)	0.00	112-120	97-100
Novo Nordisk (NVO)	0.00	44.5-46.5	41-42
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	40-42	37-38
Magna International Inc. (MGA)	0.00	94-96.5	88-89
CoStar Group (CSGP)	589.55	200-208	182-185
Athenahealth (ATHN)	0.00	178-182	154-156
Alaska Air Group (ALK)	0.00	87-90	80-81

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the September 30th issue.

This month we look at stocks that might benefit from the (eventual) arrival of a post-Covid world. Currently, the news seems uninspiring – new cases are accelerating in some regions that may foreshadow a return of economically-crippling lockdowns, and hopes are dimming for a vaccine in the near future.



Many stocks have surged already in anticipation of this yearned-for world, but many remain moribund. Some laggards are likely to be zombies – still alive but burdened with overwhelming debt loads. We avoided these, and instead found several that should prosper with the return of a fully-opened economy and also have more resilient capital structures to help them endure while we all wait.



We also looked at publicly-traded chicken processors and found that the sky is not actually falling, even if the shares seem to imply an atmospheric tumbling. Near-term wholesale chicken prices have become meaningfully but temporarily depressed, in our view. We highlight three stocks and discuss their risk/return nuances, along with a fourth intriguing commodity food company.



Our feature recommendation, Western Digital (WDC), trades at a depressed valuation but has major strategic changes underway.



The letter also includes a summary of our recent sale of Gilead Sciences (GILD) as well as the full roster of our current recommendations.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and a great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.



Thanks!

Growth stocks have changed character over the past week, with abnormal action and breakdowns appearing. The good news is that a major top doesn’t appear to be in place; the general market is still hanging in there for now, and the long-term trend of most leaders is still up. But, taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, we’ve pared back a bunch and are actually holding more than half the portfolio in cash. That’s probably too high (we’d like to put some to work in fresher leaders), but we’re content to patiently wait for buyers to support the market.

In tonight’s issue, we review all our stocks, dive into the two main factors to your investment returns and go over many fresher names that could help lead the market’s next upmove.