Search

It was a relatively quiet week for Explorer stocks as a financial media frenzy focused an unprecedented amount of attention on the expected financials of one stock – Nvidia (NDVA).

Nvidia has quickly become the third most valuable company in the United States.

As of last Friday, about 30% of the S&P 500’s gain for the year was due to Nvidia, according to an S&P analyst.

Stocks continued to retreat last week, ensuring a down February after a very promising January. Still, the latest pullback has been fairly modest, with the 200-day moving average now acting as a floor instead of a ceiling, as it did for most of 2022. With the market in a state of flux, we’re adding another dividend stock today – a household name that used to be part of the Stock of the Week portfolio before we sold it late last summer. That looks like a mistake, as the stock has risen 11% since, and seems to be gathering more steam of late. It’s a longtime recommendation of Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.

The market and most Explorer positions struggled a bit this week except Conoco (COP), which is benefitting from crude oil hitting 2023 highs. Consumers and businesses are looking forward to the Fed ending interest rate increases as the inflation fight continues. Food inflation slowed to about 3% year-over-year in August, down from a troubling 13% a year earlier. Those topics, plus Japan, China and the electric vehicle arms race, in today’s Cabot Explorer update.

In my view, the best strategy for overseas markets is to play the trends with a contrarian value approach. For example, the Hang Seng China Enterprises index, a closely followed gauge of large Chinese listings in Hong Kong, has fallen about 11% so far this month after losing 14% last year. Foreign investors have sold about 90% of the $33 billion worth of Chinese stocks that they had purchased earlier in 2023 and have continued selling this year.

So today, we go against the grain on China.

As part of our ongoing “Core & Explore” approach, today I present three new ETFs for your consideration. These three funds should help you weather the market’s many ups and downs these days. They are designed to remain both in the market and keep flexible to take advantage of new growth opportunities without going overboard.

The S&P 500 and Explorer stocks are in an uptrend in November as investors bet that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are done for now and that inflation will moderate without a recession. In addition, with most S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results, more than 80% have beaten analyst expectations.

With the investing climate improving, today we add two new positions to the portfolio. Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving!

When I started in this business as an institutional stockbroker, Peter Lynch, the portfolio manager for Fidelity’s Magellan fund, was seen as a master of the game. His forte was picking smaller growth stocks. Upon stepping down in 1990 after his fund became too big to make any small-cap stock pick meaningful, he had delivered, over a 13-year period, a 29% per annum return to investors.

His lessons still ring true today.

Major indexes are at all-time highs as data indicated inflation retreated a bit. And many of our positions are soaring.

That includes new addition Neo Performance (NOPMF), whose shares were up 17% during the stock’s first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company reported a swing to profitability. It wasn’t our only holding to post double-digit performance last week.

Details inside.

The first week in April was quiet for Explorer stocks. Looking at what sectors are doing particularly well through the MSCI World index, technology and other cyclical sectors such as energy have outperformed.

Where are the bargains? Consumer staples, Europe, and perhaps even electric vehicle stocks. The EV slowdown can’t be denied – their first-quarter growth rate was a weak 2.7% vs. last year’s 47%. Hybrids vehicles are clearly preferred by many, and on the rise.

The latest earnings reports were mixed but generally encouraging.

The S&P 500 exceeding the 5,000 mark reminds us that while our dynamic economy leads to disruptions in companies and markets, and Fed interest rate moves can impact the market, it is revenue and earnings growth that really drives stock returns over time. Companies normally become more profitable over time, and that’s what leads to higher stock prices. Staying in the market and leveraging the power of compounding returns is important to successful investing.

So today, we expand our portfolio by starting a small position in a brand new asset class.

Shares of DLocal (DLO) are getting hammered today (-20%, roughly) after the company released formal Q3 results. Recall, preliminary results were released in October at the time of the secondary offering (priced at 52.25, versus stock at roughly 37 mid-day today).

The rally since the election continues as Bitcoin reached $90,000 for the first time. Tesla (TSLA) has climbed more than 40%, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks shares of some of the nation’s largest lenders, is surging.

Dutch Bros (BROS) shares jumped 36% this week as it beat analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines while offering improved guidance for the remainder of 2024. Sea Limited (SE) soared 10.3% as the Singapore-based company reported overall net income that beat estimates at $153.3 million, with a better-than-projected 31% rise in revenue for the September quarter.

As the United States and China reached a 90-day trade conflict ceasefire, markets have responded positively though the deal is not binding and lacks much detail. The S&P 500 edged into positive territory for 2025. A number of Explorer stocks are having very good years.

Tech stocks steadied a bit this week as quarterly earnings started coming in. Sea (SE) was up this week on two analyst upgrades. Super Micro (SMCI) will report crucial quarterly earnings early next week.

The Explorer’s one current European stock recommendation is Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO). It has passed French luxury group LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton to become Europe’s most valuable company.

Please note that next Thursday is July 4^th and therefore there will not be a Cabot Explorer issue though I will send out an alert if there is any significant news on our stocks.

For Explorer stocks this week, Neo Performance (NOPMF) shares were up 12%, and Super Micro (SMCI) gave back half of last week’s 20% gain.

The dollar rose to its highest level since last year as the Federal Reserve breaks with other central banks by keeping interest rates elevated, giving global investors an incentive to move cash to the U.S. to capture higher bond yields.

Good news was able to outrun the problems in 2021. But the problems are catching up. The economy ran so hot because if was picking up the slack from the pandemic and making up for lost time. But that slack will soon run out.

We are likely heading towards a more normal environment on the other side of the pandemic recovery. It is highly unlikely that market returns going forward are as high as they have been. That pace can’t be sustained. We are likely headed for choppier waters and a more sideways market where stock picking should be more crucial.



Inflation and rising interest rates may not be great for the overall market, but certain sectors can thrive in such an environment. In this issue, I highlight one such stock. The stock should shine on the other side of the pandemic recovery that lies ahead in the new year.

I spent most of last weekend planning an upcoming trip to Europe (Prague, Munich and Amsterdam). I reserved a rental car, found a couple places to stay... and looked into getting a new credit card. I already have credit and debit cards that don’t charge foreign transaction fees, which is important...