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Current Market Outlook


If you haven’t stuck with a proven system in 2015, chances are you’ve been chopped to pieces by the market’s never-ending ups and downs. Today was another headline-driven selloff (Chinese stocks are seeing renewed weakness), but it doesn’t change the market’s condition—the intermediate-term trend is still sideways, with some stocks acting fine and others looking like it’s 2008. The plan remains the same—be selective on the buy side, honor all stops and hold some cash, but also give your most resilient stocks a chance to hold up and resume their advances. If leading stocks decisively break down, then we’ll change our tune, but so far focusing on the strongest stocks has been fruitful.

This week’s list features a few recent earnings winners, as well as a few that are set up well heading into their earnings reports. Our Top Pick is Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), a big-cap growth stock that remains in a firm uptrend following a better-than-expected report.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	248-256	230-232
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	101-106	93-94.5
Infinera (INFN)	0.00	22.5-23.5	20-21
IACI (IACI)	0.00	78.5-81	75-76
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)	0.00	59-62	54-55
Criteo (CRTO)	0.00	51-53	48-49
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	705-720	660-665
Cempra (CEMP)	0.00	42-44	37-38
China Biologic Products (CBPO)	0.00	112-117	105-106
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	515-530	470-475

The market put in a solid show last week, with the indexes finally getting off their knees. However, as you can see from our new market monitor above, the field is still tilted toward the bears – eight days of rallying doesn’t undo the 15% to 20% decline seen from mid-December to mid-January. If a new bull market is starting, there will be plenty of time and opportunities, but for now, you should stay defensive, holding cash, and buying only small amounts of certain stocks. OptiMo’s pickings remain somewhat slim, as much of the market’s recent strength has come from the most beaten-down sectors (financials, homebuilders, transports), which aren’t high-odds setups. But we believe there are some emerging leaders in today’s Top Ten, led byInteractive Brokers (IBKR), a newly-public market maker and brokerage firm for professional investors. Its business depends on the market’s action; if a new bull market unfolds, it should drive earnings and the stock much higher.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ACI (ACI)	0.00	44-48	-
ACOR (ACOR)	0.00	22-26	-
CALM (CALM)	0.00	28-32	-
IBKR (IBKR)	0.00	33-35	-
NITE (NITE)	0.00	14-16	-
OI (OI)	0.00	46-52	-
RATE (RATE)	0.00	50-54	-
SID (SID)	0.00	88-95	-
TNE (TNE)	0.00	56-62	-
WMS (WMS)	0.00	35 1/2 - 39	-

Late yesterday Accolade (ACCD) announced it was diving deeper into the telehealth market by acquiring 2nd.MD, a small start-up based in Houston, TX. The acquisition target provides expert medical consultation services to patients, typically at a critical point in the patients’ lives when a second opinion and/or consultation and provider care options are of utmost importance.

Most of the stocks in our portfolio that are holding up well (and in many cases moving higher) are either rated buy or hold, and those that aren’t have already been sold, or are rated hold, and being watched extremely closely.

If you have any exposure at all to small-cap cloud-based software stocks, you’re likely singing in the shower these days. It has been hard to miss with this class of stocks. In our portfolio, our small business cloud software stocks are driving overall portfolio returns with weekly gains of 5% to 10% not uncommon.

A few weeks ago, I wrote here about investing in master limited partnerships, or MLPs, and invited you to send in your questions about owning MLPs. (You can read the original article here if you missed it.) The tax issues surrounding these high-yield investments can get pretty complicated,...

With the market on edge we’re going with a slightly larger company than normal with this month’s Cabot Small-Cap Confidential selection. But we’re not being overly conservative. Shares of this software stock have been climbing steadily after a breakout move in May. The reasons? Growth is reaccelerating, profit margins are climbing, and the proportion of recurring revenue is going up.

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