Search

Current Market Outlook


Ever since the mini-blowoff we saw in growth stocks in mid June, the market has been choppy, narrow and tough to maneuver, with many individual stocks going nowhere and a handful of leaders flashing abnormal intermediate-term action. But the character of the market seems to have changed during the past couple of weeks—the day-to-day rotation is gone, leading growth stocks have generally resumed their advances and the major indexes have moved to new highs. It’s still not 1999 out there, of course, and a big factor will be how the market reacts once big investors return from the beach next week. But there’s no question the evidence continues to improve, so we’re bumping up our Market Monitor to a level 8 (out of 10).

This week’s list has a bunch of good setups and great breakouts from growth-oriented stocks. Our Top Pick is Pure Storage (PSTG), which looks like it has recovered from the choppy action of the past few quarters.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Autodesk (ADSK)	229.00	150-155	137-140
DocuSign (DOCU)	107.98	63-66	55-57
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)	49.89	19.5-20.5	17.5-18.5
Nordstrom Inc (JWN)	60.72	58-61	53.5-55.5
Novocure (NVCR)	0.00	38-40	33-34
PetIQ (PETQ)	30.82	35.5-38	30-31.5
Pure Storage (PSTG)	25.64	25-26.5	22.5-23.5
SailPoint Technologies (SAIL)	31.60	29-31	26.5-27.5
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	117-122	105-108
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)	64.96	66-69	61-62.5

Current Market Outlook


After establishing three bottoms in three months—with each bottom higher than the last—the broad market blasted higher last week, pushing our Market Monitor back into the green zone. But we’re not recommending indexes, we’re recommending stocks, and these stocks are not bouncing off bottoms, they’re breaking out to new highs! Furthermore, a lot of these market leaders are new names that are not familiar to investors—which means there is far more potential buying power than selling power in the stocks.

There are many great growth stories in the bunch, with many possibilities of huge long-term gains in revolutionary businesses, and our Top Pick is one of them; it’s Coupa Software (COUP), a small but fast-growing company whose spending-management software addresses a huge potential market.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AAXN (AAXN)	87.11	51-55	45-48
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	51-54	46.5-48.5
Green Dot (GDOT)	85.11	70-72	63-65
Guess (GES)	0.00	23-24.5	20.5-21.5
Petrobras (PBR)	14.78	15-16	13.8-14.8
Pure Storage (PSTG)	25.64	22-23.5	19.5-20
Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC)	127.95	44-49	39-41
Tenet Healthcare (THC)	0.00	30.5-32	28-29.5
Trade Desk (TTD)	468.02	71-76	65-68
Twilio (TWLO)	183.39	50.5-55	46.5-47.5

There are only a few companies out there that provide the software that companies can use to implement IT cost-accounting. Today’s Cabot Small-Cap Confidential candidate is pioneering the entire movement.

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes bounced decently last week, though that was quickly given back today as the sellers reappeared. Day-to-day volatility is likely to remain high as the market remains news-driven (the 50-day average of the VIX volatility index is the highest in two years), but the bottom line for the overall market is simple: All of the major indexes we track are below their key intermediate-term moving averages, so until proven otherwise, the trend is down and you should remain cautious. As for individual stocks, many are still in good shape, but with the sellers in control, any buying should be kept small and all stops should be honored. We’re nudging down our Market Monitor another notch to reflect the growing selling pressures we see.

This week’s list does contain a bunch of solid charts despite the market’s carnage, which is an encouraging sign. Our Top Pick is Lululemon (LULU), which is one of many resilient retail names and has just gapped up on earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Energen (EGN)	77.04	59-61	55-56
Five Below (FIVE)	134.58	70-73	64.5-66.5
Guess (GES)	0.00	19.5-20.5	17.5-18
Kohl’s (KSS)	70.62	61-63	56-58
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	85-88	80-82
Okta, Inc. (OKTA)	148.41	37.5-39.5	34.5-36
Petrobras (PBR)	14.78	13.2-14.2	12.1-12.8
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	76-79	70-72
Smart Global (SGH)	0.00	46.5-49.5	42-44
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	74-77.5	68-71

Current Market Outlook


It’s not perfect, but from a top-down perspective, the market remains in good shape—today’s stretch toward new highs for many indexes (the S&P 500 made it, though most others didn’t) keeps the intermediate- and longer-term trends pointed up. That said, under the surface, things are a bit disjointed, with selling on strength seen in some extended growth leaders and buying picking up in names that are either cyclical (oils, financials) or fresher (those that haven’t had huge runs). That doesn’t mean you should chase every stock and sector that’s moving and ditch those that are wobbling, but it is important to avoid complacency with your winners (honor stops and take partial profits when offered) and, on the buy side, focus on stocks showing outstanding accumulation in recent weeks.
Those are just the type of charts we’re honing in on these days, and this week’s list has another batch of (mostly) newer names showing excellent action. Our Top Pick is Anaplan (PLAN), which looks like a new leader in the software space.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AGCO Corporation (AGCO)	76.24	75.5-78	69-70.5
Anaplan (PLAN)	47.52	47.5-50.5	42-43.5
eHealth (EHTH)	122.74	80-84	71-73
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	51.5-53.5	46-47.5
Kratos Defense (KTOS)	24.08	21-23	18.8-19.8
Novocure (NVCR)	0.00	58-61	51.5-53.5
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	88-92.5	77-80
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	66-68	61-62
Smartsheet (SMAR)	44.12	47-49.5	42-43.5
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	16.68	13.7-14.7	12.2-12.6

Current Market Outlook


The broad market’s weakness has finally caught up with the major indexes. Last week we saw an end to the post-September market rally, with all major indexes (and most stocks) breaking down. We never got too bullish in recent weeks because of all the warts on the rally, and now it’s time to be cautious, selling your losers and laggards and holding plenty of cash. From here, we’re open to any scenario, ranging from yet another quick snapback to a prolonged downtrend after months of topping action. Just following the evidence, we’re moving our Market Monitor down to the lower end of neutral.

This week’s list reveals that despite the broad market implosion, there are still many resilient stocks; you could nibble on one or two or just add them to your watch list. Our Top Pick is TAL Education (XRS), a stock that looks to be in a bull market of its own.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TAL Education (XRS)	0.00	43-45	40-41
Wayfair (W)	167.03	43.5-45.5	40-40.5
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)	123.32	34-35	32-32.5
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)	242.42	31-32.5	29-29.5
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	81.5-84	77.5-78
Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)	0.00	26-28	24.5-25
Five Prime Therapeutics (FPRX)	0.00	37-40	31-32
Eagle Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EGRX)	0.00	88-93	80-82
Acuity Brands (AYI)	0.00	224-230	208-210
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)	15.37	25-26	22.5-23

The big news today is that last week’s market weakness turned our intermediate-term market-timing indicator negative. But no one indicator is perfect, and at Cabot, we use another indicator to measure the market’s long-term trend—and that indicator is still positive. Thus it’s a standoff, which means our Market Monitor is positioned at dead neutral. Short-term, we tend to think the market is ripe for more of a pullback, simply because it’s had such a great, long advance. But long-term, we remain optimistic that once the correction is complete, the main uptrend can continue, and this thinking, in part, is because there are so few investment alternatives! In any event, our goal is to continue presenting you with stock that are most prone to short-term strength, and this issue brings a nice mix of old and new. Read them all, choose your favorite story, and work to find a good entry point. Our favorite this week is Twitter (TWTR), which has a huge fundamental story and a decent technical setup.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	125-131	123-124
VeriSign (VRSN)	190.71	58.5-60.5	56-57
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS)	14.25	91-95	80-82
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	56-62	52-53
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	41-43	39-40
Pandora Media Inc. (P)	0.00	31-33	29-29.5
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	70-75	69-70
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)	0.00	91-93	83-85
Gilead Sciences (GILD)	75.10	76-79	73-74
CalAmp (CAMP)	0.00	27-29	24-25

Current Market Outlook


Following last week’s rolling crash in the market, everyone is wondering what comes next, but instead of predicting (guessing), it’s better to stick with the facts. Here’s where the evidence stands: The intermediate-term trend is clearly down for all major indexes and most (though not all) stocks, and given that this comes after a prolonged advance, some time is likely going to be needed to repair the damage. Short-term, though, we did see some legitimate extremes in a few key measures (900-plus new lows on the NYSE on Friday; just 3% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day line; record SPY volume on Friday) that says today’s bounce could go further. All together, it’s best to be in a cautious stance (holding cash, limiting new buying, pruning your worst performers), though you shouldn’t panic out of everything—holding on to your resilient winners is fine, and if you have plenty of cash, a little buying is fine as well.

This week’s list is a good place to start building your watch list (or, if you’re in the buying mood, looking for candidates to nibble on). Our Top Pick is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which has a good overall story and what could be a big catalyst, too. Aim for dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Atlassian (TEAM)	182.16	142-146	131-133
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	88.76	55-58	47.5-49
Cloudflare (NET)	39.32	20.5-21.5	18-18.5
Datadog (DDOG)	81.52	42.5-44.5	39-40.5
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	267-277	239-242
Enphase Energy (ENPH)	46.70	48.5-51.5	42.5-43.5
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	435-455	390-400
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	223-231	202-206
Seattle Genetics (SGEN)	150.85	107-111	98-101
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	78-81	71-73

Coronavirus fears re-emerged in a big way over the weekend, causing today’s across-the-board selloff. As we look at the evidence, here’s what we see: The intermediate-term uptrend has been cracked, especially when you look at the broader major indexes, and given that this selling comes after a big run and more than a few yellow flags during the past month, it’s likely we’re in a correction that will take some time to play out. That said, it’s also very unlikely that this is the end of the overall bull market, as the longer-term trends and stance of the indexes and most leading stocks are positive; heck, many stocks look just fine (so far) on their charts. Put it together, and we think it’s time to play a little defense and build up some cash by cutting losers and laggards, though we’re also aiming to hold most of our resilient, profitable performers, giving them a chance to hold up and get going.

Encouragingly, this week’s list has a bunch of decent-looking growth-oriented names to consider. Our Top Pick is Zoom Video Communications (ZM), which has not only a very strong chart but also a growth story that appears to benefit from the spread of the coronavirus.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)	82.24	47-50	43-44.5
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	102-106	91-94
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)	339.47	353-365	320-327
Floor & Décor (FND)	68.03	55-57	50-51
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)	70.70	80-83	72-74
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	660-690	620-640
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)	98.49	108-112	98-100
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	132-137	116-119
Zillow (Z)	76.64	57.5-60	52-53.5
Zoom Communications (ZM)	155.83	100-105	86-89

Current Market Outlook


As we steamroll toward the end of the decade, the overall market remains in good shape—the intermediate-term trend is firmly up, the number of stocks hitting new highs is expanding and many longer-term studies tell us that 2020 is likely to be another solid year. That said it’s not all peaches and cream out there—short-term, huge number of new highs often leads to some retrenchment, and we’re also seeing a bit more divergent action among individual stocks, with some growth titles hitting potholes while investors rotate elsewhere. None of that is “bad,” per se, but it is a reminder to honor and update your stops as time goes by, and to take a couple of partial profits if you score a decent profit.

This week’s list has a wide variety of newer names, from construction to precious metals to biotech to chips. Our Top Pick is Synaptics (SYNA), which has the makings of an intriguing turnaround as it’s riding a few powerful growth trends.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Aecom Technology (ACM)	0.00	42-43.5	39-40
GDS Holdings Limited (GDS)	80.15	47-48.5	43-44
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	71.5-73.5	65-66
Pan American Silver (PAAS)	27.28	20-21	18-18.5
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	71.5-74	64.5-66
PTC Therapeutics (PTCT)	0.00	47-49	42.5-43.5
Reata Pharmaceuticals (RETA)	0.00	197-210	178-183
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	368-383	335-345
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)	0.00	107-111	96-98
Synaptics (SYNA)	0.00	63-66	55-56.5

The majority of the evidence when it comes to the overall market remains positive, but the environment for individual growth stocks remains very challenging—many are still holding up well, but no real money is being made as waves of selling pressures show up every couple of days. We’re still holding our resilient names and aren’t opposed to new buying here or there, but it’s important to hold some cash and keep new buys small until the bulls step up to the plate for more than a few hours at a time.

Current Market Outlook


It’s not a wild, rampaging bull market, but there’s no question the evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks—earnings season has offered more good than bad, with a decent number of positive reactions and breakouts, and for the first time in months, we’re seeing some follow-on buying (strength leading to more strength), which is typical of what you see in a sustained uptrend. There are still hurdles to overcome (most indexes are still testing the top of multi-month ranges), and short-term, investors are a touch complacent, so we wouldn’t be shocked to see some wiggles or further crosscurrents. But with more stocks acting well and with the trends of the major indexes pointed up, we think extending your line makes sense. We’re nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7 on tonight’s issue.

This week’s list is chock-full of recent earnings winners, including many that appear to be early in new uptrends. Our Top Pick is Qorvo (QRVO), a well-traded chip maker that’s just staged a wild earnings gap. Start small and preferably on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)	79.05	58-61	53-55
Bristol-Myers (BMY)	66.24	54-56	50.5-51.5
Garmin (GRMN)	97.45	92-94.5	84.5-86
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	68.5-71	61.5-63
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)	49.79	49-51	43.5-44.5
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	68-71	62-63
MurphyUSA (MUSA)	118.21	113-117	98-100
Qorvo (QRVO)	129.47	97-102	87-90
TopBuild (BLD)	111.00	103.5-107	94-96
TransDigm (TDG)	599.41	520-540	480-490

Current Market Outlook


Our thought that March 23 would prove to be a workable low was correct, and the past three weeks have seen the major indexes recoup 40% to 55% of their crash declines (depend on the index). It’s obviously been good to see, as is the continued constructive action in many stocks; it appears the wheat is separating from the chaff. Still, we think the next week or two will be the key juncture—if the major indexes can ramp from here, the intermediate-term trend would turn up and could coincide with some powerful breakouts. On the flip side, if the sellers reappear, a deeper pullback or a retest of the lows could be on tap. Right now, we’re optimistic, but we never anticipate signals; today, with the trend still down, you should remain defensive.

Happily, we continue to see a lot of stocks that want to go higher if bulls do retake control. Our Top Pick this week is Inphi (IPHI), which is already at new closing highs as demand for its high-speed goods improves. Start small and/or aim for dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	2070-2130	1890-1920
American Tower Corporation (AMT)	252.32	238-248	220-225
Bilibili (BILI)	28.71	25-27	21-22.5
Chewy (CHWY)	43.92	37.5-40.5	32-33.5
Ciena (CIEN)	44.25	42.5-44	38.5-39.5
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	87-91	77-79
Veeva Systems (VEEV)	180.23	159-163	144-146
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)	34.43	31-32.5	27.5-28.5
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	92-96	81-83
ZTO Express (ZTO)	28.84	26-27.5	23.5-24.5

It’s turning out to be a typical volatile January, with last week’s harsh selling among leading stocks leading to this week’s strong snapback that’s seen many leaders (including a few names we own) roar back to new high ground. That’s not to say the wobbles are over--in fact, we’d half-expect some more wiggles given earnings season is just getting started. But overall, things are volatile, but still bullish, so while we’re not flooring the accelerator, we are staying positive.


Last week, we sold half of one stock and placed another on Hold, but tonight, we’re going to start a new half-sized position in an old (from last year) favorite that we think got derailed mostly by the market environment last summer and fall--and now looks poised to do well if the market holds together.

Stocks keep hitting new highs, riding a stronger-than-expected earnings season and multiple red-hot trends (artificial intelligence, semiconductors, weight-loss drugs), all of which we have heavy exposure to in the Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s possible stocks in those sectors are due for a pullback, but tech as a whole is clearly thriving at the moment, so today we split the difference by adding a dividend-paying technology stock that’s been a long-time favorite of Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.

We are entering the heart of earnings season. So far, the results are unimpressive. The entire retail sector is on alert after Walmart’s pre-announcement about weaker earnings due to their accelerating efforts to offload surplus inventory.

The market remains relatively mixed from a top-down perspective, but growth stocks remain a different story -- some still look fine, but the action is very hit or miss, and recently, more have come under pressure, with air pockets appearing all over the place this week. That doesn’t portend doom -- in fact, some things like sentiment are encouraging, and the indexes aren’t in bad shape -- but we’ve pared back this week and will look to reinvest the proceeds once big investors decisively step up to support growth stocks.

The market is in sell-off mode, with the Nasdaq down more than 7% in less than two weeks. But while growth stocks are in the dumps, value stocks are flourishing, up 5% year to date and outperforming growth by one of the wider margins in recent memory. So today, we sell out of a couple growth stocks that aren’t working and beef up our value exposure by adding the newest recommendation from Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke. It’s a company whose name you likely know, but a stock that was severely out of favor with Wall Street until recently – a perfect turnaround candidate.

Details inside.

It’s been a great couple of weeks in the market, with the major indexes lifting nicely since the election and, more important, with leading growth stocks acting very well—while there have been some earnings wobbles, there’s been even more big rallies, with some stocks going into the stratosphere. It’s been a good couple of weeks, and with the evidence bullish, we are too—but we’re also keeping our feet on the ground, trimming some names on the way up and aiming to enter some fresher leaders, ideally on weakness.

A strong earnings season has propelled the broad market to fresh highs, and as we enter mid-August, “rotation” has become the buzzword of the moment.

We’ll respect this action by not pressing too hard on the gas today. But at the same time, with a number of attractive setups floating across my screen, we’re not going to be wildly conservative.

We step up to the plate and take a swing at three new positions today.