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Current Market Outlook


Last week had some promising moments, but by week’s end, the sellers had pushed the major indexes back down on the week. At this point, the bears are running wild, as most of the major indexes remain in wide trading ranges. At the very least, the intermediate-term trend is sideways-to-down, and the broad market is in poor health, with hundreds of stocks hitting new lows on a daily basis. It’s OK to hold some resilient performers, but we urge a cautious stance, with plenty of cash on the sideline and limiting new buying to just small positions of resilient stocks.

This week’s list has some solid ideas, though there are no broad trends apparent—mainly company-specific situations that have attracted some buyers. Our Top Pick is Alkermes (ALKS), a speculative biotech that could swim against the tide thanks to the FDA’s recent approval for one of its high-potential drugs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Red Hat (RHT)	0.00	79-81	74-75
Pure Storage (PSTG)	25.64	15-16.5	13.5-14
NetEase, Inc. (NTES)	0.00	170-176	160-162
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	103-107	96-97
Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI)	0.00	50-55	44-46
FLSR (FLSR)	0.00	62-65	56-58
Extra Space Storage (EXR)	0.00	84-87	80-81
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	650-667	618-622
Alkermes (ALKS)	0.00	75-78	68-69
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	89-92	85-86

The past three weeks have done a lot to improve the market’s stance, in our view. At long last, the action of the indexes and most potential leaders has tightened up; no longer are names gapping up or down randomly based on overseas news. And this tightness has, in the case of many stocks, come after a period of accumulation. In other words, we’re seeing a change of character for the good—it looks like many stocks are poised for a move higher. Until that move really begins, we’ll leave our Market Monitor in neutral territory ... but be sure to have your shopping list ready should the bulls flex their muscles.

This week’s list continues the string of high-potential stocks that are either finishing up their base-building work, or have already pushed to new highs ahead of the market. Our favorite is Verisign (VRSN), a steady growth play as the leading Internet domain registrar. Try to buy on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Express Scripts Holding Company (ESRX)	79.25	59-61.5	-
Five Below (FIVE)	134.58	30-32	-
Mindray Medical (MR)	0.00	33.5-35.5	-
Ocwen Financial (OCN)	0.00	21.5-23	-
Pharmacyclics (PCYC)	0.00	54-56	-
Rackspace (RAX)	0.00	51-53	-
SeaDrill Limited (SDRL)	0.00	38-39.5	-
Team Health Holdings (TMH)	0.00	25-27	-
VeriSign (VRSN)	190.71	44.5-46.5	-
Weyerhaeuser (WY)	0.00	23-24	-

Updates on all our stocks, no ratings changes, and 10 stocks that look likely to rise 5% in the near term.

The market has been holding up well, and small caps in particular are looking steadfast as we move into the second half of August.

Current Market Outlook


Last week saw all the major indexes close clearly below their 50-day moving averages, a development which, combined with another batch of breakdowns among leading stocks and cracks in key sectors (like chip stocks), has us taking another couple of steps back—we’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 5 (out of 10) in today’s issue. To be clear, the market isn’t a disaster here, as most major indexes are just 3% or 4% from all-time highs, many stocks (especially growth stocks) are still relatively resilient and the longer-term uptrend isn’t in doubt. But the onus is on the bulls to take a stand. After six weeks of correcting and consolidating, we need to see buyers step up before putting a bunch of new money to work. In the meantime, we’re holding some cash and keeping new buys small.

Encouragingly, our screens are still picking up on plenty of attractive charts and stories. Our Top Pick is Innoviva (INVA), which has a couple of asthma treatments that are raking in the dough (much of it from royalties). It’s thinly traded, so consider buying a small position on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	111-114	102-104
Arista Networks (ANET)	0.00	129-133	119-121
Bioverativ (BIVV)	0.00	54-57	49.5-51
HP (HPQ)	0.00	17.7-18.2	16.7-17
Innoviva (INVA)	0.00	13.5-14.2	12.5-12.8
JD.com (JD)	39.58	31.5-32.5	29.5-30
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)	0.00	49-51	46-47
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	23.4-24.4	22-22.5
Seagate Technology (STX)	0.00	46.5-49	43-45.5
Yum China (YUMC)	0.00	31.5-33	29-30

The market began correcting in late March, and since then it has tried to get going twice (in late April, and in early June), with both rallies failing. Late last week, though, another rally attempt got underway, and while it’s early, it looks more promising—the upmove last Friday was powerful, and there appears to be less uncertainty surrounding Europe. Plus, potential leading stocks have now had two to three months to rebuild bases, so there are more potential buyable patterns out there. That said, the market remains fragile, and earnings season is dead ahead; our guess is that earnings, not Europe, will likely decide the market’s next big move. We’ll keep our Market Monitor in neutral territory for now, but color us encouraged by the market’s action.

This week’s list has a few good ideas; sector-wise, it’s clear that the housing stocks are performing best. Thus, we’ll keep it simple and name Lennar (LEN), the leading homebuilder in the market, as our Editor’s Choice; the company just came out with a great earnings report, propelling shares to new highs. Try to buy on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
3D Systems (DDD)	0.00	30-32	-
CPHD (CPHD)	0.00	42-44	-
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	27-28.5	-
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)	0.00	35.5-37.5	-
Expedia Group (EXPE)	0.00	46-48	-
Lennar (LEN)	61.85	28.5-30.5	-
Ocwen Financial (OCN)	0.00	17.5-18.5	-
Skechers (SKX)	0.00	19-20.5	-
Ultimate Software (ULTI)	0.00	85-88	-
Western Refining (WNR)	0.00	21-22.5	-

In recent days, several portfolio companies reported quarterly and/or full-year 2015 results. General Motors (GM), Robert Half (RHI), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Vulcan Materials (VMC) all surpassed market earnings per share (EPS) expectations.

There’s no doubt the evidence has improved during the past three weeks, with the major indexes living above their 50-day lines, the broad market returning to good health and with some leadership names perking up, too. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s perfect out there—defensive-type indexes and stocks have been outperforming, earnings season has been very tricky and we’re even starting to see some hot and heavy action in speculative names, which usually isn’t a great sign. All in all, the evidence is certainly more good than bad, so we’ve extended our line a bit but are also looking to be “pulled” into a more heavily invested position should more leadership names emerge. For now, we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with a lot of charts showing power, usually following earnings. For our Top Pick, we’re going to the cyclical side of the market, with a name that has out-of-this-world earnings and is just emerging from a tight area.

WHAT TO DO NOW: We continue to stay relatively close to shore as the major indexes remain rangebound and many stocks are hit and miss—but we are impressed given the resilience shown after some worrisome headlines, and earnings season has gone fairly well so far. Today and tonight, we’re making a few small moves: On the sell side, we sold one-third of our AppLovin (APP) stake today and, tonight, will sell half of our On Holding (ONON) position—but we’ll also buy an additional 3% position to Duolingo (DUOL) and start a half-sized stake in DoorDash (DASH). All told, we’ll still have a mid-40% cash position, but we could do more buying if the recent resilience leads to clear buying.

The market took a jab to the face last week, but it still looks good. It’s still a strong market. But one that is showing some vulnerability.


After a great first half and a strong July, the market pulled back 2% last week, reversing most of the July gains. The culprit was a Biden administration announcement of new AI chip export restrictions to China. That news also combined with a perceived likelihood of a Trump presidency and the possibility of further trade frictions with China. The technology sector, and semiconductor stocks in particular, took it on the chin.

There isn’t much not to like about this market. After a strong first half of the year, the market is having a great July. And the rally is broadening out. It’s not just technology anymore.

Life360 (LIF) Delivers Q3 Report

Last evening Zeta (ZETA) responded to the Culper Research short report with a scathing review of the allegations, saying, in short, that Culper is full of it and doesn’t know what the heck it’s talking about. It couldn’t even get Zeta’s auditor right. Link to the press release here.