The market remains super strong, and we’re pleased to see many growth stocks that rested during December break out to new highs so far this year. Shorter-term, the lack of good entry points among stocks we’re watching is a reason we’re still holding a chunk of cash on the sideline. But we remain very bullish longer-term and think pullbacks and/or shakeouts will provide some solid entry points.

Tonight, we’re standing pat once again with our collection of stocks, most of which act great. In the issue, we do write about one big-cap name that we think has regained its status as a liquid leader (Alibaba), and it’s probably the top stock on our watch list today. Elsewhere we do highlight some other ideas, and as always, share our latest thoughts on all the stocks we own.

The market has been ripping higher with broader participation from sectors that weren’t doing much a couple months ago. That’s the good news. And it’s showing up in the charts with the Small Cap Index at multi-month highs (but well below all-time highs). IPOs are starting to find their legs too. The not-so-good news is that the market is looking a little stretched, which could mean a pause or pullback is coming sooner rather than later. But, the market has a way of doing the unpredictable and with so many investors thinking it’s time for break we could see just the opposite. This month we try to play both sides of the ball by spreading things around in different sectors and across market caps. There’s some IPOs, some high growth software and MedTech ideas, and another growth + value name. They all have their own qualities and stand out to me for different reasons right now.

Last year, there were at least 7.9 billion records—including credit card numbers, home addresses, phone numbers and other highly sensitive information—that were compromised by computer hacks, mainly through invasions of business networks.

Current Market Outlook


The big-cap indexes remain in rarified air, as they continue to levitate and the sellers refuse to put up a fight. Even more encouraging is that many stocks that took the prior few weeks off (generally building tight ranges) have resumed their advances, a good sign. That said, the upmove has become a bit more selective (small- and mid-cap indexes haven’t participated lately) and numerous yellow flags among secondary indicators are still in place. All of that is a longwinded way of saying that not much has really changed—it’s a strong bull market that should go higher down the road, but the risk of near-term potholes is elevated. Thus, you should remain bullish and continue to hold most of your strong performers, but picking your spots on the buy side makes sense as well.

This week’s list includes a bunch of names that have shown excellent strength after resting for a few weeks—or in some cases, months. Our Top Pick is blue chip Salesforce.com (CRM), which has accelerated to new highs after a 15 months of base-building.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Aecom Technology (ACM)	0.00	45.5-47	42-43
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)	0.00	83-88	71-75
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	225-235	202-206
Dynatrace (DT)	36.59	27.5-29	24-25
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	112-115	103-105
Guess (GES)	0.00	21-22	19-19.5
JD.com (JD)	39.58	38-39.5	34.5-35.5
Qorvo (QRVO)	129.47	112-116	101-102
Salesforce.com (CRM)	0.00	178-182	164-167
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	65-67	59-60

The broad market remains strong, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive, so I remain optimistic that we’ll see higher prices in the month ahead and I continue to recommend that you remain heavily invested. However, it’s worth noting that the market is increasingly ripe for a pullback, and that a few of our super-strong stocks (LK and SPCE and TSLA) are also ripe for major pullbacks. In other words the market looks a bit overheated here.

Thus this week’s recommendation is a lower-risk, high-yielding chemical stock with very little downside potential. I think it will balance those higher-risk stocks nicely. Lastly, the addition of this stock means we have to sell one, and the victim this week is TopBuild (BLD).



Details in the issue.

As we head into 2020, emerging markets are at the top of the Cabot Global Stocks Explorer menu after developing a nice uptrend in the fourth quarter of 2019. In addition, they are cheap - trading at a substantial discount to U.S. markets on a valuation basis. Today’s new idea is at the sweet spot of several powerful trends in China and has delivered steady and substantial profits to shareholders over the past five years.

Today’s featured stocks are those that I sense are most likely to rise this month. We’ll probably see near-term strength in energy companies, alongside rising oil prices; and insurance companies, as their fourth quarter results include capital gains from investment portfolio performance. Earnings season kicks off this month with banks reporting fourth quarter results. It’s not too late to sell the worst stock in your portfolio and replace it with shares of a high quality, growing company that has a bullish price chart.

We enter 2020 in a tricky situation. It is very late in the recovery and bull market and the market is near an all time high. While the bull market is likely to last a while longer, this still isn’t a great place to be in general. However, while the overall market is expensive there are rare pockets of great value.

In this issue I highlight a shipping stock that has remained profitable and paid dividends every single quarter through an industry depression. That company is yielding a massive 9.6%. And industry conditions are improving. It may be 2020 in the overall market, but I found a place where it’s 2009 again.

Spot charter rates have begun to boom and most expect the good times to continue for many quarters if not longer—while Q3 results were still sour, this company’s stock moves on perception of the future, and it’s pretty much established now that 2020 will be a banner year (analysts see earnings of $3.61 per share!).

Current Market Outlook


Usually when the market is stretched and sentiment is complacent, the market latches onto a reason to retreat, and last week provided it, with the Middle East conflict offering an excuse for sellers to get active and buyers to pull in. The good news is, thus far, the retreat has been reasonable—the major indexes are still even above their 25-day lines, and few stocks have cracked key support or flashed any abnormal action. That said, we’re leaning toward the view that, Iran or not, the short-term is likely to remain tricky, with rotation, potholes and news-driven moves likely to be the norm for a while. Thus, we remain bullish, but continue to advise picking your spots—many stocks have etched nice month-long rest periods, though some others probably need time to consolidate.

This week’s list has a bunch of names that haven’t appeared in Top Ten for a long time (if ever). Our Top Pick is Alibaba (BABA), which has finally kicked back into gear after a long time in the wilderness. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	208-216	192-196
Bilibili (BILI)	28.71	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	157.5-162.5	143-146
Eldorado Resorts (ERI)	0.00	56-58	51-52
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)	0.00	76.5-80	66.5-68.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	76-79	69.5-71
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	95-97.5	86-87.5
Tenet Healthcare (THC)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33.5
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	13.2-13.7	11.7-12.0
Scorpio Tankers (STNG)	0.00	37.5-39	33.5-34.5

The chart of the S&P 500 is showing us that the index may be finishing a double-bounce pattern; bouncing at the same low of approximately 1,880 where it touched down twice during the late summer 2015 market correction.

Today, I’m changing the rating on many Smart Investing stocks to Hold. These rating changes are only about share price. Other than Axiall, none of these stocks are experiencing earnings downgrades or corporate troubles. They are all undervalued growth stocks.

There’s a lot more to “buying low” than just identifying falling prices.

2015 is almost over, thank the Lord! The stock market lacked momentum, trading sideways virtually the entire year.

How do you know if you own a “good” stock that will bring you capital gains?

I have two rating changes in the portfolios today: Intuit (INTU) in the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio moves from Hold to Buy, due to the capital gain opportunity presented by the price pullback, and Priceline (PCLN) in the Growth Portfolio moves from Hold to Buy, due to the capital gain opportunity presented by the price pullback.

There’s been lots of news on our portfolio stocks in recent days: upside earnings surprises, downside earnings surprises, share buybacks, dividend increases and M&A activity.

There are two major reasons that we saw a 3.6%+ drop in U.S. stock markets last week.

We’re nearing the end of third-quarter earnings season, and so far, 75% of companies reported results that beat Wall Street’s expectations!

We’ve had a huge stock market rebound in October, with the NASDAQ up 9%, and the Dow and S&P 500 each up about 8% month-to-date. Investors are going to breathe a great sigh of relief when they see their October 31 account values.

Good news! Last week, the S&P 500 broke out of a sideways trading pattern, where it had been resting since the late-August U.S. stock market correction. The S&P could easily rise to 2,120 this fall—a 5% move—barring unforeseen bad news.

This healthcare tech company’s shares were recently initiated at Berenberg to ‘Buy’ and upgraded at Craig-Hallum to ‘Buy’.

This tech company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.06 last quarter and Wall Street is forecasting that the company will grow at a 54.64% annual rate for the next five years.

It was a volatile and divergent day in the market, with the Dow rising 198 points but the Nasdaq fell one point and growth stocks got hit very hard, registering one of their worst days of the year. As a result, we are selling 1/3 of a position and moving another position to hold.

The shares of this tech company were also recently initiated at Guggenheim with a ‘Buy’ rating.

This pharmaceutical company is expected to grow at an annual rate of 31.67% for the next five years.

Blackstone Group reported second quarter economic net income (ENI) of $0.90, above all analysts’ estimates.

The top five holdings of this fund are: Vail Resorts Inc (MTN, 0.66% of assets); PTC Inc (PTC, 0.64%); Burlington Stores Inc (BURL, 0.61%); Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY, 0.60%); and GrubHub Inc (GRUB, 0.56%).

This defense and aerospace company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 last quarter, and forecasts for this year are for 14.5% growth.

This home retailer beat analysts’ estimates by $.0.04 last quarter and is expected to grow at a 25% annual rate during the next five years.

This tech company’s shares were just initiated at Evercore ISI Group, with an ‘Outperform’ rating and upgraded at Deutsche Bank, to ‘Buy’.

Bank of America (BAC) reported a big second-quarter earnings beat this morning.

Our second recommendation is some profit-taking.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.