Current Market Outlook


Coming into last week, the market was at a key juncture, with many indexes testing their key 50-day lines and even the Nasdaq testing its 25-day line, which has contained its post-bottom advance. Happily, those tests were passed, and now we see the Nasdaq at new highs and other indexes getting some daylight above their 50-day lines. Of course, there are still a few issues out there, as the environment remains relatively bifurcated and there are few stocks at great entry points after 15-plus weeks on the upside; sentiment is also getting a touch euphoric. Thus, you should continue to keep your feet on the ground and not pile into stuff sticking straight up in the air, but you should also respect the primary, bullish evidence and stick to a heavily invested stance.

This week’s list has a bit of a secondary feel to it, though all the names have enticing stories and charts. For our Top Pick, we’re going with Ultragenyx (RARE), one of many biotech stocks that’s showing renewed strength.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alarm.com (ALRM)	71.33	64-67	57-58.5
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (BHVN)	75.71	68-72	60-62.5
Chegg (CHGG)	74.21	68-71.5	60-62
Cloudflare (NET)	39.32	35-37.5	30.5-32
Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS)	46.07	42.5-45	37.5-39
Thor Industries (THO)	104.76	98.5-102.5	89-91
Trade Desk (TTD)	468.02	415-435	365-380
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)	87.63	83-88	72-75
Upwork (UPWK)	15.93	13-14	11.5-12
Zscaler (ZS)	126.22	108-113	95-98

First and foremost, all of us at Cabot wish you a great long holiday weekend; our offices will be closed tomorrow but we’ll be back at it again on Monday.

As for the market, the story remains largely the same--there are some blemishes, but most of the evidence is positive, so we’re sticking with a heavily invested stance, albeit with some moves based on the action of individual stocks. Earlier this week, we trimmed a bit, leaving us with around 14% in cash.



In tonight’s issue, we write about one new liquid leader we’d love to own at the right price, along with all our latest thoughts on our stocks and the market.

Digital payments were already a big trend prior to Covid-19. But the pandemic has pulled forward demand for solutions that help businesses pay and get paid whenever, wherever, and however.

Today we’re profiling a small company that specializes in payment processing solutions. It’s relatively new to the public markets and has a market cap well under $2 billion.



While areas of its busieness have been harmed by the pandemic the big-picture story remains great. And management reported record sales activity in both March and April. And the stock’s looking great.



All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

Today’s featured companies have sturdy financial conditions and attractive valuations, with appeal to buy-and-hold investors as well as traders.

The markets eked out a positive return for the month of June, with the S&P500 returning 1.99%, capping one of the strongest quarters (+20.5%) on record. In this month’s letter, I describe a bit more about the re-opening and how it might affect the markets.

Like many consumer goods producers, companies that make apparel and related products have experienced sharply lower sales and profits with the stay-at-home restrictions during the pandemic. But, for companies that make everyday apparel, particularly those with enduring brands or an outdoor/active lifestyle focus, demand should eventually return to healthy levels.

In this issue, we list seven companies that we believe offer interesting recovery potential.

Genetic testing makes it easier for medical professionals to understand and diagnose diseases since a big portion of health problems have genetic origins. Today’s recommendation specializes in gathering genetic info across every stage of a person’s lifespan, working to consolidate testing into a single low-cost, rapid turnaround service, and it’s making good progress on that front—its efforts have led to test costs dropping from thousands of dollars to as low as $250 today.

The market remains in good health, though there’s been some weakness among growth stocks, but overall I think this correction provides some decent entry points so I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of the best stocks—while pruning your portfolio of underperformers.

Today our underperformer is Verizon (VZ), which I’ll sell because the stock has weakened further.



As for the newest recommendation, it’s unusual in that it’s actually in a sector I don’t care for, but the confluence of several factors (including COVID-19) means there’s substantial upside potential right now.

Current Market Outlook


As we’ve been writing for many weeks, most of the primary evidence (trends of the major indexes, action of leading stocks) remains in the plus column, as do some key secondary pieces of evidence (blastoff indicators, number of new lows, etc.), so we’re sticking with a bullish stance. But the near-term should be interesting—the continuing dichotomy in the market means most indexes aren’t far from their 50-day lines, and we’ve started to see more up-down-up-down action, which, after a big, prolonged (13-plus weeks) upmove, tells you that the bulls and bears are beginning to fight it out. None of this is a reason to anticipate something sinister—again, most of the evidence is still positive—but it’s prudent to pick your spots on the buy side and have some stops in place in case the sellers make a stand and/or another bout of rotation takes hold (we started to see that today). We’re nudging our Market Monitor down to a level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with stocks of all stripes making the cut. Our Top Pick is Etsy (ETSY), which has come alive after a year-long rest. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP)	84.11	71.5-75	62-64
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	97.5-102	84-86
Farfetch (FTCH)	26.23	16-17.5	14.5-15.5
GenMark Diagnostics (GNMK)	15.47	12.3-13	10.6-11
HubSpot (HUBS)	582.89	207-212	187-190
Inphi (IPHI)	120.16	107-111	98-100
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	26-27.5	22.5-23.5
Meritage Homes (MTH)	102.20	71.5-74	63.5-65
Plug Power (PLUG)	8.35	7.2-7.6	5.9-6.2
STAAR Surgical (STAA)	57.94	56-59	49-51

Four Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week.

The Emerging Markets Timer continues to flash a buy signal, as the iShares Emerging Markets Fund remains above both its 25- and 50-day moving averages, and the lower (25-day) has both turned up and gotten back on top of the 50-day. We have no changes in the portfolio today.

It’s Trump Week, and stocks are in a holding pattern until the 45th President is sworn in this Friday. In fact, stocks have scarcely budged for the past month on the heels of the furious post-election rally.

First, a review of our stock selection strategy and performance, then updates on all our stocks. Today’s portfolio changes: Goldman Sachs (GS) moves from Buy to Strong Buy, and Kraft Heinz (KHC) moves from Buy to Hold.

The market could be a bit vulnerable in the short-term, but our market timing indicators remain bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we’re putting one stock on Hold, but we’re adding a new stock. That will leave us with about 20% in cash.

Most of the outperformers of the last two months—including financials, energy stocks and industrials—are consolidating, but we haven’t seen significant pullbacks.

Here are a few things that I’m noticing among various stock sectors. Semiconductor stocks look extremely bullish. Make sure you have one of those in your portfolios! Good choices today include Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML Holdings (ASML).

No Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week. However, I recommend that two companies be sold: Gildan Activewear (GIL) and Team Health (TMH). I also include questions from subscribers along with my answers.

The Emerging Markets Timer is now flashing a new buy signal, as the iShares Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) has risen above both its 25- and 50-day moving averages and the lower (25-day) has turned up. Our only portfolio move today is to return TAL Education (TAL) to a Buy rating.

Stock markets started the New Year with a nice pop yesterday, after closing out the last week of 2016 marginally lower. While one day of action isn’t enough to indicate a trend, we’re optimistic that 2017 could bring a strong market rally.

In the past 30 days, 12 analysts have increased their EPS estimates for this tech company, and the consensus forecast is for 24.6% growth next year.

This speculative stock has significant insider holdings and looks very undervalued.

Crista is adding a new stock to the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio

Analysts expect this sleep innovator to grow 31.1% this year.

There is earnings news on several of the stocks in the portfolio.

Analysts expect this chipmaker to grow 34.8% next year.

Stocks in the marijuana sector are off to a flying start this year.

One of our portfolio stocks rose 11% this morning upon a Reuters report that private equity firms Sycamore Partners and/or Apollo Global Management (APO) might announce a buyout in February.

Analysts expect this fitness company to grow at an annual rate of 28.2% over the next five years.

Analysts expect this medical data company to grow at an annual rate of 30% over the next five years.

This software company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.05 last quarter, and Wall Street expects it to grow 45.5% next year.

The market appears to have firmed up a little over the last week.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.