Issues
The Cabot Profit Booster Portfolio continues to do very well … though depending on which sectors are in favor and which are not on any given day, we have had some stocks moving up and down violently.
Current Market OutlookLast Thursday’s massive selloff was a shot across the market’s bow, and today saw the broad market take another punch to the gut. That said, the evidence remains mostly bullish at this point—the trends of the major indexes are up, nearly all institutional-quality leading growth stocks are still acting fine and many secondary indicators (such as the number of stocks hitting new lows, which remains microscopic) are also pointing higher. Of course, 2020 has been all about staying flexible, and right now isn’t a time for complacency; it’s always possible the 11-week advance is going to lead to a sharper correction or consolidation. Thus, you should be open to any possibility, but right now, the evidence remains bullish, so we advise remaining heavily invested.
This week’s list has a bunch of growth-oriented titles that are showing attractive setups. Our Top Pick is Lululemon (LULU), which could pull in further after earnings, but our guess is that this dip will give way to higher prices in the weeks ahead.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Argenx SE (ARGX) | 222.54 | ||
| Bandwidth Inc. (BAND) | 129.19 | ||
| Coupa Software (COUP) | 262.20 | ||
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) | 105.02 | ||
| DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) | 38.26 | ||
| Fiverr (FVRR) | 71.41 | ||
| Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | 304.69 | ||
| Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) | 65.95 | ||
| Peloton (PTON) | 53.03 | ||
| Redfin (RDFN) | 40.40 |
Last week’s sharp market selloff may have made headlines, but far more important than any one day’s action are patterns and trends, and today the patterns and trends I look at are still positive.
Still, diversification remains a key factor in successful portfolios, so today’s recommendation swings back to the conservative side; it’s a big global company with a healthy 4.8% dividend.
As for the current portfolio, while we sold two stocks last week just before the big drop, today I have no changes. All our stocks are behaving well.
Full details in the issue.
Still, diversification remains a key factor in successful portfolios, so today’s recommendation swings back to the conservative side; it’s a big global company with a healthy 4.8% dividend.
As for the current portfolio, while we sold two stocks last week just before the big drop, today I have no changes. All our stocks are behaving well.
Full details in the issue.
Our emerging markets signal (EEM) is decisively positive after relative outperformance by emerging market stocks over the last couple of weeks. The Fed signals that rates will likely stay near zero through 2022 and the Fed chairman promised to “run stimulus programs forcefully, proactively and aggressively for years, if necessary.”
Although jobs numbers surprised on the upside, it looks like the market is shrugging off that GDP will gap down about 6% in 2020 and the federal budget deficit reached $400 billion for one month – May!
Today, we have a new recommendation that is at the heart of technology and hedges the growing tension and risk in Asia.
Although jobs numbers surprised on the upside, it looks like the market is shrugging off that GDP will gap down about 6% in 2020 and the federal budget deficit reached $400 billion for one month – May!
Today, we have a new recommendation that is at the heart of technology and hedges the growing tension and risk in Asia.
This week, we profile an under-the-radar podcast hosting company in secular growth that is about to announce the results of a strategic review.
Our micro-cap recommendations have performed well in aggregate. Nonetheless, I believe my open BUY recommendations remain significantly undervalued as they have been left behind in this surging market.
Micro caps don’t benefit from passive investing as they are not owned by any indexes or ETFs. Nonetheless, the historical performance (~18% annual CAGR) of micro caps speaks for itself.
If we continue to patiently buy undervalued micro caps, we should do quite well over time.
If you have not already, I recommend that you read my Cabot Micro-Cap Insider Guide. It will help you get the most out of your Cabot Micro-Cap Insider membership, and make your investing decisions easier and more profitable. It will also explain much of the shorthand we use in Cabot Micro-Cap Insider, and explain our ratings.
Our monthly member call will take place this Thursday, June 11, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET. We will review all open recommendations and answer subscriber questions. You can register here.
If you have any questions about any of my recommendations, I encourage you to reach out to me directly at rich@cabotwealth.com.
Now let’s get into my newest recommendation.
Our micro-cap recommendations have performed well in aggregate. Nonetheless, I believe my open BUY recommendations remain significantly undervalued as they have been left behind in this surging market.
Micro caps don’t benefit from passive investing as they are not owned by any indexes or ETFs. Nonetheless, the historical performance (~18% annual CAGR) of micro caps speaks for itself.
If we continue to patiently buy undervalued micro caps, we should do quite well over time.
If you have not already, I recommend that you read my Cabot Micro-Cap Insider Guide. It will help you get the most out of your Cabot Micro-Cap Insider membership, and make your investing decisions easier and more profitable. It will also explain much of the shorthand we use in Cabot Micro-Cap Insider, and explain our ratings.
Our monthly member call will take place this Thursday, June 11, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET. We will review all open recommendations and answer subscriber questions. You can register here.
If you have any questions about any of my recommendations, I encourage you to reach out to me directly at rich@cabotwealth.com.
Now let’s get into my newest recommendation.
Despite the fact that the market indexes have come roaring back near the old highs, many stocks are still cheap. Cheap dividend stocks have created some of the highest yields in a decade. While there is great opportunity, it’s not as easy as it might seem.
There is also great risk. In most cases, stock prices have fallen because the coronavirus lockdown has seriously hurt business. The financial pain is yet to be realized. Many of these high-yielding stocks will be forced to cut the dividend to free up much needed cash.
It is only those rare cheap, high-yielding stocks with safe dividends that offer great opportunity for dividend investors in this market. In this issue I highlight one of the very best. It is one of the best high-yield opportunities in a decade.
There is also great risk. In most cases, stock prices have fallen because the coronavirus lockdown has seriously hurt business. The financial pain is yet to be realized. Many of these high-yielding stocks will be forced to cut the dividend to free up much needed cash.
It is only those rare cheap, high-yielding stocks with safe dividends that offer great opportunity for dividend investors in this market. In this issue I highlight one of the very best. It is one of the best high-yield opportunities in a decade.
Today’s Covered Call idea is a recent earnings winner that broke out to new highs last week, and has pulled back in marginally early this week.
Eleven weeks off the market bottom, with the S&P 500 up 45% from its low, the news is finally getting good—which to me says that short-term, investing in stocks is likely to become a bit more challenging. That’s one reason I’m recommending selling two stocks today—and putting another two on hold.
Long-term, however, the future remains bright, especially for companies like the one featured today, which are serving global mass markets with products that they’re (literally) hungry for.
Full details in the issue.
Long-term, however, the future remains bright, especially for companies like the one featured today, which are serving global mass markets with products that they’re (literally) hungry for.
Full details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookFrom a top-down perspective, there’s not much to complain about when it comes to the current market—the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is firmly pointed up, and the broad market has come alive in a big way, with two major blastoff indicators turning green in the past two weeks. Thus, for the overall market, the outlook is mostly sunny, though there’s always the chance of a passing shower. However, leading growth stocks are now on the run a little bit; it’s been two weeks of on-and-off selling, and many are beginning to approach key support areas. As we’ve written lately, the good news is that breakdowns have been few and far between; the pullbacks have been normal thus far, but the next few days should be telling to see if growth names are in for a deeper retreat or whether everything can get in gear with the broad market on the upside.
As you’d expect, this week’s list is heavier in names that have more recently come to life, including a few cyclical-related names. Our Top Pick is Autodesk (ADSK), a growth-y name that should also get a boost from the economic recovery, and the stock has leapt nicely to new highs.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding (ASML) | 350.01 | ||
| Autodesk (ADSK) | 229.00 | ||
| Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) | 26.23 | ||
| Datadog (DDOG) | 81.52 | ||
| Elastic (ESTC) | 86.17 | ||
| Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) | 36.88 | ||
| Square, Inc. (SQ) | 91.04 | ||
| Thor Industries (THO) | 104.76 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Trex Company (TREX) | 117.56 |
Updates
Fourteen Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week.
All of our market timing indicators remain bullish, and the major indexes and many stocks are attempting to resume their post-election uptrends. In the Model Portfolio, we have three changes tonight.
As we enter 2017, big changes are afoot, both economically and politically. News media is currently laser-focused on which stocks are or are not likely to fare well with a new political administration in Washington D.C. This is a good time to remind you why I make my investment decisions based on numbers and price charts, not on trending news topics.
We booked a few profits after the big post-election runup in stocks. And with most of our positions holding firm right now, were sitting pat.
Four Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news during the past week.
The Emerging Markets Timer continues to flash a buy signal, as the iShares Emerging Markets Fund remains above both its 25- and 50-day moving averages, and the lower (25-day) has both turned up and gotten back on top of the 50-day. We have no changes in the portfolio today.
It’s Trump Week, and stocks are in a holding pattern until the 45th President is sworn in this Friday. In fact, stocks have scarcely budged for the past month on the heels of the furious post-election rally.
First, a review of our stock selection strategy and performance, then updates on all our stocks. Today’s portfolio changes: Goldman Sachs (GS) moves from Buy to Strong Buy, and Kraft Heinz (KHC) moves from Buy to Hold.
The market could be a bit vulnerable in the short-term, but our market timing indicators remain bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we’re putting one stock on Hold, but we’re adding a new stock. That will leave us with about 20% in cash.
Most of the outperformers of the last two months—including financials, energy stocks and industrials—are consolidating, but we haven’t seen significant pullbacks.
Alerts
Gold is looking more favorable, and this ETF gives you wide exposure.
We’re moving a stock from Buy to Hold.
This media/entertainment company is forecast to grow by 64% next year, and 16 analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the company in the past 30 days.
One stock moves from Buy to Strong Buy and four more stocks in the portfolio report quarterly earnings.
The top three sectors in this fund are Technology (21.4% of assets); Financial Services (15.66%); and Healthcare (14.89%).
Three of the stocks in the portfolio please the market with their quarterly earnings releases.
This life sciences company beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.07 last quarter.
Two of our stocks report strong earnings.
The top three sectors in this growth fund are Consumer Cyclical (23.57% of assets); Technology (19.67%); and Healthcare (14.26%).
Two of our stocks move from Hold to Buy in advance of tomorrow’s earnings releases.
Our first idea is a company that is expected to grow more than 20% next year, and we are taking profits on our sale recommendation.
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.