We’re happy to see that the markets – despite a brief pullback – continue to rise. Home prices – as calculated for the Case-Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan areas – now stand at 246.04, up from 220 a year ago.

Consumer confidence and sentiment continue to increase, and that’s great for the economy. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP rose 6.4% – the second-fastest pace for growth since the second quarter of 2003!



This month, our Feature Recommendation is a French company that is the leading fiber telecom platform in rural France. The company has been awarded 4.5 million FTTH (fiber to the home) lines spread across 23 Public Initiative Networks. Additionally, investors will like the very nice 5.60% annual dividend yield.



We’re taking some more profits this month, with the sale of Unilever PLC (UL). Earnings performance has not been great, and it’s having a lot of trouble clearing resistance. We’ll take our 37.5% return to the bank and use it for our new recommendation.



We hope to see you on our May Platinum Club webinar; it’s scheduled for May 6 at 2pm. In the meantime, don’t hesitate to reach out to us if you have any questions.



Happy Investing!



Nancy Zambell and Kate Stalter

Current Market Outlook


To us, the major (and most disappointing) theme of the past few weeks has been the selling in stocks as they approach their old highs—selling on strength has been seen in growth stocks for a couple of months but it’s even seeping into many cyclical-type names, too. In other words, while selling pressures are controlled (the intermediate-term trend remains up), buyers aren’t exactly stepping up in a major way. Of course, the real question is whether earnings seasons causes the bulls to flex their muscles; so far, that hasn’t happened, but there are a ton of reports coming this week and next, so we’ll see how it goes. Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think keeping some cash on the sideline and aiming to enter mostly on pullbacks remains the best play. We’re again leaving our Market Monitor at a level 6.

This week’s list has a hodgepodge of names, many of which have reacted well to earnings, so if you’re going to buy strength, these are some top candidates. Our Top Pick is Crocs (CROX), one of the few growth-oriented names that has shown great power of late.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)	31	30-31.5	27-28
Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN)	31	29.5-31	26.5-27.5
Capital One Financial (COF)	150	141-146	128-131
Chart Industries (GTLS)	154	149-155	137-140
Crocs (CROX)	98	95-100	84-87
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	203	197-204	181-184
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	26	25-27	22-23
Robert Half (RHI)	88	86-88	78-80
Scientific Games (SGMS)	58	54-56	48-49
United Parcel Service (UPS)	212	203-209	184-188

The market’s main trend remains up and thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in stocks that can help you meet your investing goals, all while remaining diversified to reduce risk.

Today’s recommendation is a high-yielding stock that has a great history of performance—and as it’s still working its way back toward its high of February 2020, it’s attractive technically.



As for our current holdings, there are no changes. With the new addition, the portfolio is fully invested.



Details inside.

Explorer positions have a good week on the back of a market moving up on broadly upbeat first-quarter earnings, rising consumer confidence and, of course, stimulus and spending from Washington. The cash and liquidity has definitely buoyed the market but how it is put to work long term is critical.

This week’s recommendation is a rather aggressive small Canadian player in the commercial drone business.

The market is still trending higher. But it can’t continue at the recent pace. And a 10% or so correction is possible at any time, especially after such a strong move higher. While the short term is always unpredictable, I’m still bullish over the intermediate and longer term.

With the market looking topsy in the near term, it’s a great time to write covered calls. In this issue, I highlight two call writing opportunities on existing portfolio positions. These calls provide a great way to cash in on a high market without giving away too much upside potential.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the May 2021 issue.

With the stock market continuing to reach record highs, and with most stocks either participating in the rally or facing structural, fundamental challenges that they won’t likely overcome, finding new ideas can be a challenge. As contrarians, we want to look for stocks in places which others find too unconventional or uncomfortable, as bargains may be found there. One such place is in stocks with low share prices, generally under $10. We discuss five interesting turnarounds among this group.



Real estate investment trusts, or REITs, have surged since Pfizer announced on November 9, 2020 that they had developed an effective Covid vaccine. Yet some REITs haven’t fully participated. We review six laggards that have quite favorable risk/return traits.



Our feature recommendation is Dril-Quip (DRQ). This company manufactures highly-engineered drilling and production equipment for offshore oil and natural gas projects. The shares are heavily out-of-favor yet offer considerable upside, backed by a solid company with a large cash hoard and zero debt.



We mention our April 1st price target increase for Mohawk Industries (MHK) from 180 to 220. As several companies continue to show strong fundamental improvements, we are raising our price targets on Adient (ADNT), Western Digital (WDC) and Wells Fargo (WFC), while moving Jeld-Wen (JELD) to a HOLD. Also, we update our article from last month on high yield bonds.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

It’s been eleven weeks since the marijuana sector topped, sending the Marijuana Index down 50%. But as the picture of this correction gets clearer, every day I get a little more bullish about the possibility that the sector is ready to turn up again.

Two weeks ago, acting on this belief, I used half our cash to average up in the industry leaders and add one new small stock to the portfolio and today I’m doing just a little more buying, averaging up in another small operator.



After this buying, the portfolio will be roughly 29% in cash, and going forward, we’ll continue to take our cues from the market, always working to own the market’s leaders as we move closer and closer to full federal legalization.



Full details in the issue.

Not to sound like a broken record, but day-to-day sector rotation continues to be the story of the last week of trading, and almost all of 2021. The good news is that this is a fine situation for the Cabot Profit Booster portfolio as we are rotating with the market, buying the best stocks, and keeping the portfolio as diversified as possible.

Current Market Outlook


Earnings season is always important, but it looks even more so this time—many growth stocks have been sitting around for the past two to three months (some even longer), while a decent number of cyclical names have been mostly up-and-down for the past four to five weeks. Thus, a collection of positive, powerful reactions to earnings could result in a bunch of good-looking buying opportunities … but, as always, we have to wait to see that happen before pouncing. Just going with what’s in front of us, nothing much has changed, with a lot of good setups but also a lot of selling in names that approach their old highs. Once that changes (due to earnings reports or anything else), it will be time to get more aggressive, but right now we’re sticking mostly with a buy-on-dips approach and waiting for buyers to really flex their muscle.

This week’s list has a broad mix of names, though most are more cyclical or turnaround plays. Our Top Pick is Steel Dynamics (STLD), which just leapt to new highs out of a tight area on huge volume. You can start a position here or (preferably) on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Burlington Stores (BURL)	321	312-318	285-290
Floor & Décor (FND)	113	109-113	97-100
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)	343	335-345	305-310
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG)	48	45-47	40.5-41.5
The Middleby Corporation (MIDD)	181	176-182	160-163
Okta, Inc. (OKTA)	285	275-282	248-252
Qorvo (QRVO)	199	194-200	173-176
Seagate Technology (STX)	93	85-89	76-78
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	55	52.5-55	46-47.5
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)	191	183-187	167-170

The market’s main trend remains up and thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested, always working to “upgrade” your portfolio by selling weak stocks and buying healthier ones.

Today’s recommendation is a well-known big technology stock that’s spent the past eight months going sideways, despite the fact that revenue growth has been accelerating. To me, it’s a very attractive setup.



As for our current holdings, there are no changes. After selling two stocks last week, everything looks good today.



Details inside.

There’s been plenty of volatility in recent weeks, but nothing has really changed with the market (trends are down) or our stance (highly defensive). We’re not heading to our Panic Room, though, as a strong rally from here could actually produce a Cabot Tides buy signal. In the Model Portfolio, we have no changes tonight, with three stocks and a cash position of around 76%.

After spiking last Wednesday, the major indexes have, predictably, pulled back over the past week. The market is likely to try to shake out weak hands a few more times before starting a sustained new uptrend. I have no rating changes today, but read on for brief updates on all our holdings.

Our portfolio stocks achieved another successful quarter of results, generally pleasing Wall Street with upside surprises as opposed to earnings disappointments or news of corporate difficulties. Nevertheless, 2018 has been a difficult year for stock investors, with the S&P 500 index delivering two 10% corrections. The best of companies can easily have their share prices languish for months on end, as we’ve seen all year.

The market’s volatility is a relatively normal correction. But for now, my plan is to keep making incremental moves to try to limit risk and pursue opportunities. Hopefully that will mean a number of positions move back to buy in November but there is one exception noted in today’s update.

The Cabot Emerging Markets Timer is heading in the direction of a new buy signal, but isn’t there yet.

The market has rallied since the last update; all sectors except for utilities are higher over the last five days. Materials, energy, financial and consumer discretionary stocks have led the rebound. While it’s certainly possible that the end of October marked the end of the correction, most corrections don’t end that neatly. No changes to the portfolio, but we do have plenty of good candidates lined up for when the market continues its advance.

The market has finally gotten off its knees, but our two main trend-following indicators are bearish and most stocks are still in rough shape. I advise you to remain patient and defensive but we could nibble on a stock if the market continues to power ahead. Since we sold a position on Monday, no rating changes to the portfolio tonight.

As we continue marching through earnings season, we’ve had 15 companies report thus far, with only one missing consensus estimates by any appreciable amount.

The market hates uncertainty and it is getting it by the bucket-full right now. If you need a simple explanation for this volatility, that’s it.

The Cabot Emerging Markets Timer is solidly negative, and the U.S. indexes have joined in the decline.

After a mixed performance last week, the market opened significantly lower yesterday, and the Dow and S&P 500 both hit their lowest level since the start of October. One of Cabot’s long-term market timing indicators just turned negative, which tells us it’s time to get more defensive. As a result, we are doing some selling today and moving two position to Hold.

I’m moving another five stocks from Strong Buy to Hold. It’s a normal seasonal pattern in the market that any stock that’s trading at its low point for the year during the fourth quarter will then remain low through the very last days of 2018 due to tax-loss selling. And unfortunately, the stock market has decided to present us with another correction, so most stocks are down in recent weeks.

This home builder beat analysts’ EPS forecasts by $0.05 last quarter, and Wall Street expects the company to grow at an annual rate of 14.83% over the next five years.

This preferred stock is issued by an investment and insurance company.

Especially with small caps, it’s not always an efficient market in the short-term. So sometimes the best thing to do is nothing. Just sit back and think it over.

The good news is that 2019, which started off so well for the cannabis sector but is ending so poorly, is nearing the finish line. The bad news is that we still have three weeks to go, technically, though many of those days will see light trading volume.

In the past 30 days, 13 analysts have increased their earnings estimates for this cloud computing company.

One of the portfolio stocks reported third-quarter results.

The market remains in a normal consolidation phase, and most of our stocks look fine.

The five largest holdings of this ETF are: Apple Inc (AAPL, 3.38% of net assets), Microsoft Corp (MSFT, 3.18%), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM, 3.04%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, 2.82%), and Verizon Communications Inc (VZ, 2.69%).

Coverage of the shares of this building supply company was recently initiated at Deutsche Bank and Buckingham, with a ‘Buy’ rating, and five analysts have raised their EPS estimates for the company over the past 30 days.

Crista continues to believe this stock is greatly undervalued.

Three analysts have recently increased their EPS estimates for this e-commerce company.

This portfolio stock shares are down 7% as investors worry about a potential pharmaceutical competitor.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.