Tech stocks are having a tough week as interest rates and inflation fears creep up. This is uncomfortable for many because five companies, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook, make up almost 25% of the market value of the S&P 500. My view is that this pullback is providing new entry points for some tech stocks that have been on a good run. For perspective, most non-tech stocks are weathering the increase in bond yields quite well.

Today, we’re selling two profitable ideas that have lost some momentum, and our new Explorer recommendation centers on turbulence on the high seas.

As we march toward spring it appears real-world risks are decreasing (more vaccines, lower case count, etc.) while the market risk for growth stocks has gone up (higher yields, volatility, etc.), at least in the short term.

As I scanned through dozens of charts and evaluated stories for this month’s addition my focus was repeatedly drawn to one stock. The chart is compelling, the story is enticing, and the recent Q4 report and forward guidance illustrate sound fundamentals, supported by long-term demand growth.



The stock appropriately balances the potential risks and rewards in the current market.



Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2021 issue.

As value investors, we follow the goings-on at Berkshire Hathaway, and comment briefly on its earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, released this past Saturday. Your chief analyst owns some Berkshire shares (the lower-priced Class B shares), but isn’t a full-fledged Berkshire “groupie.”



We also discuss our new Buy recommendation – British insurance company Aviva, Plc (AVVIY). This company is emerging from a period of global sprawl and weak leadership, led by a new and impressive CEO.



Currently-recommended Dow (DOW) is a strong beneficiary of the global economic re-opening, with higher earnings likely ahead, so we are raising our price target to reflect this still-undervalued stock’s potential.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.



Thanks!

Fears of rising inflation, and what that would mean for interest rates, weighed on the market last week, especially growth stocks, which were crushed. Fortunately, the Cabot Profit Booster portfolio is well diversified, and our stocks held up spectacularly for the most part, and some even made new all-time highs.

The markets have been mostly positive in the past month, with the Dow rising about 1,000 points. The economy is rolling along nicely. Consumer confidence is up, employment is steadily rising, and the housing market is still booming.

That bodes well for the next few months, and we remain bullish on the markets, albeit with a dose of caution.



We are expecting—once this first Biden stimulus package gets underway—that Infrastructure spending will be next on the new president’s agenda, and that is where our Feature Recommendation should shine. The company is already seeing double-digit sales and earnings increases, as the economy recovers, and rising Infrastructure outlays should exponentially boost its profits.



We are taking some profits this month with the sale of Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), which has gained 388%. We’ll be looking at some additional opportunities to cash in, and we’ll make sure to alert you should we make those decisions or any other portfolio changes between issues.



Happy Investing!

Current Market Outlook


The market staged a nice-looking rebound today, especially given that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were hanging around their 50-day lines coming into today. Up is definitely good, but when examining the evidence, we see a tale of two markets. Growth stocks still look ragged, as many cracked key support last week and have been extraordinarily choppy during the past month (a sign bulls and bears are fighting it out after big runs). However, the broad market is largely fine, with small- and mid-cap indexes perched near their highs and many sectors acting fine. All in all, the evidence has worsened, so we’re knocking our Market Monitor down a notch, but we’re mostly taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, ditching those that break down while targeting new buying at resilient names.

This week’s list is heavy on cyclical and re-opening plays, though chip stocks remain a bastion of resilience. Our Top Pick is Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), which staged a long-term breakout in November, has huge growth and has been unaffected by the market’s wobbles.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP)	229	218-225	200-204
Amkor Technology (AMKR)	25	23-25	19-20
Avis Budget Group (CAR)	58	53.5-56.5	46-48
Bausch Health Companies (BHC)	32	29.5-31	26.5-27.5
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)	55	51.5-54	45-46.5
HubSpot (HUBS)	527	490-510	430-440
Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC)	52	48.5-52	41-43
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)	149	141-146	125-128
Shake Shack (SHAK)	118	113-118	100-103
Valmont Industries (VMI)	244	226-236	203-208

Last Tuesday the market sold off big-time. Today it recovered equally big. But many stocks haven’t bounced as much as they fell, and some of them are in our portfolio. That’s the general reason for my four sell recommendations today.

Still, while there are growing divergences, the bull market is not dead yet, and today’s recommendation is a mass-market retail name whose stock looks great as investors look forward to more expansion.

November through most of January was relatively smooth, but we’ve seen more cracks over the past month—especially this week, as growth stocks have come under severe pressure. To be fair, our trend following indicators are still positive, so we’re not selling wholesale, but we’re not letting stocks get away from us on the downside, either.

Earlier this week, we cut bait on CrowdStrike, and tonight, we’re letting to of NovoCure, taking small profits in each. Our cash position will now be around 40%, and as always, we’ll remain flexible going forward, prepared to either put money to work (if this is another short-term shakeout) or raise more cash (if a “real” correction unfolds.)

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index broke out to a fresh all-time high this week and is now officially above the 1,000 level! I suspect that milestone isn’t going to make many headlines, but in our little corner of the world it’s kind of a big deal.

Today we’re selling one stock and ask you to consider owning another in its place, because their debt numbers and price chart are improving, and their EPS and P/E numbers continue to look very appealing!

Remain optimistic, but continue to take it day by day. The green light from the Cabot Tides remains in effect, which, combined with our solidly bullish Cabot Trend Lines, tell us to lean bullish. Tonight, we have no changes in the Model Portfolio, where we’re holding about 30% in cash.

After a two-week rally, the major indexes pulled back yesterday, but the retreat isn’t surprising given the market’s recent gains. The last two weeks have turned the market’s intermediate-term trend up, and conditions are in place for a sustained rally. Most importantly, the major indexes have now successfully (meaning they bounced) re-tested their correction lows three times since the start of the year.

Energy stocks are thriving, and some of them have risen into the stratosphere. I never recommend that people chase stocks that just rose 20% to 50% without resting. Let them rest, then jump in to catch the next run-up. On the flip side, financial stocks are just now emerging from a resting period. Many of my favorites appear ready to not only retrace their recent highs, but to surpass them as well!

This was another big week for our portfolio as four stocks reported quarterly results. Fortunately, the wind was at our backs as the broad market is on track for its best weekly gain since March!

Our Emerging Markets Timer is still negative, but it’s good to see EEM perk above its (still downtrending) 25-day line today. A good day or two from here could flip the intermediate-term trend.

One of the Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor subscribers asked me about a few stocks that were formerly in this portfolio, so here’s an update on those stocks.

Although the market remains volatile, the action in the major indexes improved this week. The S&P 500, for example, bounced off its 200-day moving average again Friday, its third time retesting that level and finding support since the start of the year. As a result, I have three rating changes today including one sell.

If you are an investor who owns mutual funds or ETFs, either in taxable accounts, IRA accounts, children’s custodial accounts, variable annuities, pension funds, 401(k) plans or 403(b) plans, you probably own AAPL as part of those funds’ portfolios.

It’s been my experience that the more an investor can lower their portfolio risk, the more enjoyable and lucrative their investing experience will be. When researching stocks, select the ones with strong future earnings per share (EPS) growth, relatively low price-earnings ratios (P/Es) and relatively low debt levels.

Remain cautious. The market is doing more chopping than declining in recent weeks, and because of that, a couple of good days on the upside could actually turn the intermediate-term trend up.

The major indexes are tilted to the upside to start the week—however, under the surface, we’re continuing to see increasing selling pressure on most growth stocks.

This building materials company recently announced a new acquisition—Heritage One Door & Carpentry.

This company continues to spin off and acquire other businesses, strengthening its medical and commercial strategy.

As summer morphs into fall and Wall Street returns to full operation, I’m seeing some welcome signs of buying in the cannabis sector. So today we’ll join them, by averaging up in two of our holdings.

The second recommendation is a sale of a previous tech pick.

Our first idea today was just upgraded to ‘Buy’ at Loop Capital.

This contract research company beat analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.18 last quarter and six analysts have recently increased their earnings forecasts for the company.

We’re selling two stocks today.

This regional supermarket also gets a nod from Zacks, scoring an ‘A’ on its VGM (value, growth, momentum score)

One of our portfolio stocks moves from Strong Buy to Hold.

Despite the apparent death of the AMGN/ALXN merger, this stock continues to be a prime candidate for acquisition.

Three retail stocks reported earnings.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.