In the July Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we briefly consider some of the factors making right now a particularly difficult time to make investing decisions, even though markets are near record highs.

To help make life a little easier we once again seek comfort in diversification. This Issue features dissimilar stocks that are bound by a common denominator; each company is either in an early stage of its life cycle, or early in a phase of growth/business model transition that should drive market-beating returns over the coming quarters.



Enjoy

The Scale of the Problem
How big is the energy transition the world needs to undergo? The decline of carbon dioxide emissions last year (a drop of 6.3%) was the sharpest decline since WWII. The world needs 30 more years of that magnitude in a row to constrain global warming to “just” 2 degrees Celsius.

The European Union wants to do its part. It announced a stricter carbon program, aiming to slash emissions by 55% by the end of the decade and to more than double E.U. renewable use, with the expectation it may do away with carbon altogether after 2030. It also plans a carbon-adjusted border tax for goods, based on home country emissions. Domestically, we’re still waiting for an infrastructure bill, but are heartened by the creation of a federal platform for instant solar permits. The Solar Automated Permit Processing program integrates local and federal databases to streamline approvals of rooftop solar projects, which can eliminate a large pain point of time and money. Can these programs keep the growth going? Renewable energy use globally rose 14% in 2020. It needs much more of the same.



The more immediate problem for us is the market, which is suffering from delta variant worries. Yet a choppy market (we’re not in a bear market, yet) sows the seeds of the next rally. This issue we look at three stocks – Ameresco (AMRC), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and General Motors (GM). They each have a combination that makes future leaders – real sales, profits and a clear growth trajectory.



You’ll see for this issue of SX Greentech Advisor that we’ve tweaked our format to make information more accessible – shorter stock write-ups with bite-sized sections and more charts. It’s part of our aim to be nimbler. Please let me know if you have any feedback on the format, or any other questions or comments, at brendan@cabot.net. There is still time too to join me and my fellow Cabot Wealth analysts for our 9th Annual Smarter Investing, Greater Profits Online Conference, August 17-19, where we will present our look ahead and some of our best picks for the next year.

After a volatile week, the major market indices all closed out with losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.97%, the Dow lost 0.52%, and the Nasdaq declined by 1.87%. And the bearish sentiment continued on Monday as the S&P 500 lost another 1.6%. Which leads to a question I’ve been receiving from a few Profit Booster subscribers: “Will you keep recommending trades if the market gets ugly?” The answer is yes. In times of rocky market action, I will continue to make trades for two reasons:

Current Market Outlook


The evidence has been steadily improving, but July has changed that—first came a lot of narrowing (most stocks below their 50-day lines even though the big-cap indexes were near new highs) along with a lack of breakouts, then came last week’s selling pressure (that saw many growth stocks show real slippage), and today we saw the sellers really start to hit things left and right. On the positive side of things, many growth titles were resilient today, and we still see a good number of setups out there; given that there are renewed fears of the virus, it’s possible many growth titles could do well even if the market has a rough go of it. But right now, the onus is on the bulls as the market’s intermediate-term trend has turned down and most stocks look iffy. We’re moving our Market Monitor to a level 5 but are keeping our eyes open for what comes next.

This week’s list is a mix of names, though some of the growth titles look like decent risk-reward situations on this dip. One of them is Marvell Technology (MRVL), a leading chip maker that’s pulling back normally after a persistent move to new highs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Autodesk (ADSK)	287	284-290	270-274
Avantor (AVTR)	36	35-36.5	32-33
Bruker (BRKR)	78	76-78	70-71
Burlington Stores (BURL)	311	307-313	290-295
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	1551	1520-1560	1400-1425
CrowdStrike (CRWD)	250	247-253	223-226
Dexcom (DXCM)	435	425-438	390-395
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)	92	90-93	84-85.5
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	55	53.5-55.5	48.5-49.5
Revolve Group (RVLV)	64	62.5-65	56-57.5

The bull market remains alive and well, with major indexes hitting new highs in the last week. However, growth stocks in particular have been hit hard recently—finally spilling into the broad market in the last few trading days—and that requires some selling, so today we’re purging four of our weakest performers from the portfolio. As for new buying, today’s recommended stock is growing by consolidating a fragmented mature industry. It just came public this year, so it’s a name few investors are aware of. The stock was originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities.

Details inside.



Lastly, I hope you’ll join me for the 9th Annual Smarter Investing, Greater Profits Online Conference, August 17-19. We have an incredible lineup of experts ready to share their best picks.

Growth stocks had been improving some, but the sellers never quite disappeared, and now they’re back with a vengeance—many growth-oriented measures are down 6% to 10% this month alone, and even the broad market is going along for the ride.

Thankfully, we never got heavily invested given the indecisiveness, and now we’re throwing up some safety nets—we sold one stock yesterday (giving us more than half in cash) and put two others on hold.



Despite the selling, we’re not throwing in the towel—we see a ton of decent setups still, so if earnings season goes well, there could be some liftoffs. But for now we’re remaining cautious until things change for the better.

A 10-year Treasury bond pays just 1.4%. A three-year CD pays less than 1%. A 20-year AAA-rated municipal bond pays 1.20%. After taxes and inflation, you don’t even break even. And that’s not to mention the fact that bond prices can plummet if interest rates rise.

The only game in town is dividends. You can still generate high rates from well-chosen dividend stocks and other income-paying securities. It’s nerve-racking to have so many of your investment dollars in the stock market, but with bonds so low paying and treacherous, there is little choice if you need to generate income.



In this issue I highlight an ETF that strikes a more conservative cord than most dividend stocks. It employs a time-tested strategy that has proven to earn consistent high income while generating capital appreciation at the same time. It also pays dividend on a monthly basis and should thrive when the environment normalizes on the other side of the pandemic recovery.



For more great picks and information about navigating the current environment please join me for the 9th Annual Smarter Investing, Greater Profits Online Conference, August 17-19. We have an incredible lineup of experts ready to share their best picks.

Before we get into this recommendation, I just wanted to highlight our upcoming annual conference.

9th Annual Smarter Investing, Greater Profits Online Conference



It will take place from August 17-19 and you will hear from many experts (including me!) about opportunities in the market.



Today, we are recommending a stock with hidden value.



Some additional details:

• Its healthcare analytics division has grown at a 30%+CAGR and has a huge market opportunity in the years ahead.
• A slower growing competitor just got acquired at a premium valuation.
• My price target implies 70% upside within 12 months, but longer term this could be a multi-bagger.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

This Friday marks the expiration of July options, and if everything holds steady, our calls in MRO, GPRO and SGMS will expire worthless. As a result, we will maximize the call premium on each position. Per usual, on Monday I plan to sell my shares in each position and start the search for more opportunities.

Current Market Outlook


The news-driven environment featuring incessant rotation and crosscurrents remains in effect; throw in the fact that breadth is narrow (about half of stocks are still below their 50-day lines despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq being near new high ground; broad market indexes are chopping sideways) and earnings season is approaching and we think it’s best to continue going slow and aim to buy on weakness. That said, there are a growing number of good-looking growth stocks out there—not a ton are kiting higher, but there are lots of setups and, while there have been bumps in the road, the sellers really haven’t been able to sink their teeth into them despite some recent strength. All in all, we’re more optimistic than not, but stock selection and solid entry points are key.

This week’s list has a variety of sectors represented, including a few that have avoided the market’s volatility. Our Top Pick is Arista Networks (ANET), whose stock is in a smooth uptrend as growth picks up steam.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Antero Resources (AR)	15	13.8-14.3	12.3-12.7
Ares Management (ARES)	65	62-64	57-58
Arista Networks (ANET)	371	363-370	340-345
Bentley Systems (BSY)	64	62-64.5	57-58.5
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS)	44	42.5-45	36-37
L Brands (LB)	77	73-75.5	65.5-67.5
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)	821	775-795	700-710
PayPal (PYPL)	303	288-297	268-273
Rapid7 (RPD)	103	97-101	87-89
Synaptics (SYNA)	158	154-158	136-138

We have obviously lived through a very difficult period in the stock market recently, from which most of the portfolio stocks are recovering or have already recovered. Hopefully we will not see another similarly ugly stock market downturn for several years, but there are no guarantees.

Small-cap discretionary, energy, financials, industrials, technology and materials are all moving higher. That’s a healthy mix, and it’s helped push the S&P 600 Small Cap Index back up near overhead resistance.

As we enter the second quarter, emerging markets are on solid footing in a constructive uptrend as EEM remains just above both 50-day and 25-day moving averages. In light of this we are positive and increasing our allocation.

The tide is changing. The recent perception was that of sputtering economic growth in a market that was panicking about the possibility of a near-term recession. Many of our defensive positions have gone gangbusters in the past turbulent year but I’ll be watching the situation closely but for now I will bow to strong momentum.

You may have noticed that the price of West Texas crude oil is up about 48% since it bottomed in late December.

The overall market is still in fine shape, but there have been a growing number of yellow flags, including among growth stocks, which came under fire today. As a result, we are selling one position from the portfolio and downgrading another to Hold.

The S&P 500 was up 13% for the quarter, making it the best first quarter since 1998 and the best overall quarter since 2009. It’s impossible to predict short-term gyrations in the market, at this point, it looks like a slow slog higher for the market for the rest of the year. It is an ideal environment for dividend stocks and only once change to the portfolio as we are selling one position.

The market has been jumping around lately as it digests the Fed’s announcement last week that it expects to hold interest rates steady until 2020 (and just one hike in that year) and would stop shrinking its balance sheet later in 2019.

The MSCI Emerging Market index (EEM) is up 9% so far in 2019 but has basically hit the pause button in March.

This financial firm beat earnings estimates by $0.32 last quarter and is due to report fourth quarter results at the end of this month.

As the market correction continues, it’s important not to focus on the coronavirus news but to focus on the actions of your stocks instead.

Position update: This recommendation’s covered call has seen extreme volatility the past several days.

Carl will update the market and our portfolio on Thursday.

This staffing company just reported excellent fourth quarter results, but the share have dipped a bit, creating a buying opportunity.

Today’s market meltdown is turning our Cabot Tides negative, which, following the many yellow flags in recent weeks, has us paring back some.

Global citizens are beginning to witness a relatively unprecedented situation in which a communicable virus that originated in China is now traveling around the globe.

This preferred stock has a current annual yield of 6.76%, and is backed by a lodging Real Estate Investment Trust with a market cap of $2.75 billion.

Today three of our covered calls will expire. The great news, all three trades will be closed for nice profits!

Earnings continue to grow at this Chinese internet company, consistently beating analysts’ forecasts.

Headed into the event our position is in fantastic shape as the stock is trading marginally above our short strike price.

Crista has two rating changes today and reports on another with a good 2020 outlook.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.