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Current Market Outlook


The third week of September brought another bout of sharp rotation, with leading growth stocks trading lower while other areas of the market firmed up. To this point, the action has been acceptable given the big runs in so many stocks during the summer, but some indexes and many stocks are approaching key levels—if the buyers show up here, all could be well, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see another leg up develop. But if not, the odds that a deeper and longer retreat among leading stocks will increase. Today, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a 7 (out of 10), and it’s good to see some new leaders emerge. But the next few days will likely be important for the intermediate-term outlook.

This week’s list is still heavy on growth ideas (though some are turnaround-type plays), but our Top Pick is Rowan Drilling (RDC), which is showing great strength by lifting out of a big bottoming area.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Aaron’s (AAN)	74.35	51.5-53.5	46-47.5
Atlassian (TEAM)	182.16	88-92	79-81
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	51-53	46-47
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY)	57.01	61-63	55-56.5
Omnicell (OMCL)	81.03	67-70	62-63.5
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	48.5-51	42.5-44
Paylocity (PCTY)	97.34	77.5-81	70-72
Rowan Drilling (RDC)	15.52	17.7-18.7	15.8-16.4
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	64-66	58-59
Yelp (YELP)	41.30	47-50	43-45

Current Market Outlook


After a punishing month, last week’s three-day bounce qualifies as a decent first step for the market and many individual stocks and sectors—most now have some breathing room above last week’s low points, and ideally, we’ll begin to see more potential leaders strut their stuff in the weeks ahead as the situation stabilizes. But a good first step is the best description we can give the bounce at this point given that the intermediate-term trends of just about everything (indexes, sectors, stocks) remain pointed down, and the odds favor plenty of volatility (at the very least) going forward. It’s not 2008 out there, but trends are negative, so until the bulls truly retake control, defense is the name of the game. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 3.

The good news is that this week’s list has many recent earnings winners that could do well once a new uptrend gets underway. Our Top Pick is Exact Sciences (EXAS), a name we’re high on and that remains perched near its highs after another excellent quarterly report.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Bilibili (BILI)	28.71	13.3-14.5	11-12
Cooper Tire (CTB)	31.50	30.5-32.5	27.5-29
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)	141.68	126-131	114-117
Exact Sciences (EXAS)	116.91	70-74	63-65.6
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)	70.70	90-94	81-83.5
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	25.35	25-26	22.5-23.5
Omnicell (OMCL)	81.03	66-69	61.5-62.5
Starbucks (SBUX)	64.49	62-64	56-57.5
Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)	26.82	22-23.5	20-20.9
VeriSign (VRSN)	190.71	157-162	145-149

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2022 issue.



In what could be a low-return market over the coming decade, stocks of relatively boring companies have a better chance to shine. We highlight five companies with grind-it-out growth, low share valuations and often-generous dividends that could produce significant market-beating returns.



We also discuss six appealing stocks we found by trolling through the 13F/D filings of like-minded institutional investors.



Our featured recommendation this month is Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT). An investment in Goodyear is an opportunistic purchase of an average company whose shares have fallen sharply out of favor for what look like short-term reasons.



We note our recent price target increases for Wells Fargo (WFC), Marathon Oil (MRO) and Shell plc (SHEL).

Current Market Outlook


After the umpteenth test of their February lows and 200-day moving averages, the major indexes have surged over the past couple of days, with many potential leading stocks going along for the ride. Put together, the action is very encouraging and raises the odds that we’ve seen a tradeable bottom. However, despite the uptick, we haven’t yet gotten a green light from our intermediate-term—a good day or two from here could do the trick, but we don’t anticipate signals. Thus, right here, we’re sticking with our current, cautious stance, though we’re keeping our eyes open for definitive signs that a new intermediate-term uptrend has begun.

This week’s list is chock-full of stocks that look like they want to move higher if this rally is the real McCoy. Our Top Pick is Shake Shack (SHAK), which catapulted higher on earnings last week on its heaviest volume ever. Keep positions small and use a loose leash.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Box Inc. (BOX)	0.00	23-25	21-22
Ecopetrol (EC)	22.17	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)	0.00	74-77	68-70
Realpage (RP)	0.00	57-59.5	53-54
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	85-88	76-78
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	54-58	48-50
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	89-93	82-84
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	106-110	97-100
Valero Energy (VLO)	97.40	109-113	99-101
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	51-54	46-48

Current Market Outlook


It’s been a great start to the year, with most areas and indexes shooting ahead on solid volume in recent days. We’re still seeing some wild moves (up and down), which is par for the course for early January and you can expect volatility among individual names to remain elevated in the near-term. Our focus is always on the intermediate- to longer-term, so while there remain some near-term yellow flags (with many stocks extended to the upside and with sentiment bubbly, you should pick your spots on the buy side), the positive price and volume action keeps us bullish.

This week’s list is about evenly split between growth stocks and industrial/commodity stocks, which tells you how broad the advance has been. Our Top Pick is Commercial Metals (CMC), a mid-sized steel-related outfit that just catapulted out of a huge base on earnings. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alcoa (AA)	0.00	51-53	47-49
Autohome (ATHM)	98.65	70-73	65-67
Commercial Metals (CMC)	0.00	23.5-25	21-22
Dycom Industries (DY)	0.00	109-113	99-101
Lear Corp. (LEA)	0.00	184-188	173-176
Lennar (LEN)	61.85	64-66.5	60-62
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	204-210	191-194
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	85-88	79-80.5
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	44-46	40.5-41.5
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	23-24.5	21-22

Current Market Outlook


After a 10-day, 11% plunge for the major indexes, the market has stabilized for the time being. When looking at the evidence, we see that the longer-term trend is still up, but there’s no doubt the intermediate-term trend is down, the broad market is unhealthy and many stocks have cracked. A bounce could easily get underway at any time, but until the intermediate-term trend turns up (indexes back above their 50-day lines and some stocks acting better), you should play some defense by holding cash, cutting back on new buying and, if you own some broken stocks, using any market rebound to pare back. On the flip side, we still advise holding your resilient stocks—if they’ve held up so far, they have a good chance of doing well whenever the correction finishes up.

What’s interesting is that, despite the market carnage, we saw a ton of positive earnings surprises last week—which is a good way to spot potential leaders down the road. Our Top Pick is Grubhub (GRUB), which has the look of an emerging blue chip.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	16-17	14-14.5
BeiGene (BGNE)	170.20	116-124	103-107
Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)	17.24	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	45.5-47	43-44
GrubHub (GRUB)	140.03	81-86	72-75
New Relic (NEWR)	103.70	61-63	56-58
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	16.68	17-19	15-15.5
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	29.5-32	26.5-28
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW)	311.99	253-270	225-230
Wayfair (W)	167.03	88-92	81-83

Current Market Outlook


The past week saw yet another round of rotation, but this one was the sharpest and most violent we’ve seen all year, with many leading growth stocks getting crunched while other areas of the market (especially those benefiting from likely lower corporate taxes) surged. Our advice, as usual, is to follow the plan—some growth stocks look very toppy after long, uninterrupted runs, and for those, selling (or partial selling) makes sense. But other growth stocks are pulling back normally, and some new leadership is emerging. It makes sense to pull in your horns a bit, possibly holding some cash until the market settles down; we’ve nudged our Market Monitor down to reflect that. Right now, we advise taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, holding your resilient/advancing issues, while honoring your stops and selling names that break down.

This week’s list is heavier on cyclical, building and retail stocks, all of which have caught huge updrafts during the past few days. Our Top Pick is Warrior Met Coal (HCC), a big turnaround play in the coal sector. Buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Beacon Roofing (BECN)	0.00	60-63	55-56.6
CH Robinson (CHRW)	0.00	84-87	78-79.5
E*Trade Financial (ETFC)	0.00	48-50	44.5-46
Gardner Denver (GDI)	0.00	30-32	27.5-28.5
GrubHub (GRUB)	140.03	64-67	57.5-59.5
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	55.5-57.5	51-52.5
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)	43.32	32.5-33.5	29.5-30.5
Tyson Foods (TSN)	0.00	80-83	74-76
USG Corp. (USG)	0.00	36.5-38	34-35
Warrior Met Coal (HCC)	0.00	21-22.5	17.5-18.5

The big news today is that our Cabot Tides are now positive, telling us the market’s intermediate-term trend has once again turned up, and thus making all our market-timing indicators positive.

This morning we sent out a bulletin announcing this and discussing two new buys and you can read more about those in this issue.

This buying brings our cash position down to 23%, which is still high for a bull market, but we won’t rush; we’ll watch carefully to see where the real leaders are and guide you to increased investment in them in the weeks ahead.

The market remains in a correction, and with the intermediate-term trend pointed down, we’re still advising a cautious stance. That said, we do think the pieces are in place for a new advance, from positive longer-term evidence, a big dip in sentiment and bullish action from many leading growth stocks.
In tonight’s issue we review all of our stocks, fine tune our watch list and we also look at the medical sector, which we think could be a leadership area going forward for a few reasons.

Current Market Outlook


The market’s meltdown today cracked the intermediate-term uptrend that got going back in January, with all major indexes (and many leading stocks) closing well below their 50-day lines today. Big picture, we still see this as a bull market, so we’re still OK holding most of your shares in your strong, profitable stocks; encouragingly, despite taking on water, many stocks are still hanging in there. That said, you also shouldn’t be complacent—after four months with no meaningful pullbacks, it’s likely (not for sure, but likely) the market needs more than six trading days to consolidate the January-April advance. In a nutshell, you should keep tight stops in place on losers and laggards, give your profitable names a bit more rope and, on the buy side, be very selective and/or keep positions small. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 5.

Interestingly, this week’s list is very heavy on growth-y names despite the market’s plunge. Our Top Pick is Match.com (MTCH), which has a great long-term story, and the stock has re-emerged after earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Avalara (AVLR)	102.00	64.5-67.5	56-58
HubSpot (HUBS)	582.89	170-175	157-160
Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)	146.30	107-111	97-100
Match (MTCH)	0.00	66-69	58-60
PayPal (PYPL)	147.00	105-107.5	98-100
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	74.5-77.5	64.5-66
Tandem Diabetes (TNDM)	74.77	60-63	54-55.5
Teradyne (TER)	82.83	44.5-46.5	42-43
TopBuild (BLD)	111.00	77.5-81	70-72
Woodward (WWD)	111.91	105-108	95-97

Current Market Outlook


Most major indexes have finally taken a bit of a breather during the past few trading days, with the 200-day moving average providing a bit of logical resistance. So far, the damage has been very limited and, in fact, many leading growth stocks actually hit new highs today. Without predicting any specific path, the big prior run, overhead resistance and still-iffy longer-term trend probably means more choppiness and potholes are on the way, especially as earnings season continues. But the overall evidence (which, by the way, includes a lack of meaningful pullbacks so far) continues to impress. We still think the next big move from here is up, but be sure to pick your spots (and your stocks) on the buy side, and practice patience with your strongest performers, giving them a chance to continue advancing.

This week’s list sports a bunch of recent earnings winners from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Array Biopharma (ARRY), which has shown fantastic accumulation pre- and post-earnings as it lifted to all-time highs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	20-21.5	17.5-18.5
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	575-605	530-540
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)	102.15	103.5-107.5	95-97
Glaukos Corp. (GKOS)	67.84	65.5-68	59-61
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)	51.30	30-32	27-28.5
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	85.22	74.5-77	67.5-69.5
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	213-220	193-199
Paycom Software (PAYC)	0.00	163-170	146-151
Spirit AeroSystems (SPR)	92.54	90-93	83.5-85
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	73.5-77	65-67

Current Market Outlook


The market came close to giving an all-clear signal last week, but the endless U.S.-China trade flareup knocked the market back on Friday. Despite the headlines, we still don’t see the environment as a total disaster—the indexes themselves are still holding above their recent lows, and many individual stocks (and most we’re following) are actually more resilient than that. But the bottom line is that little money is being made, and with the intermediate-term trend continuing to point down, you should remain in a cautious stance, keeping new buying on the small side and holding some cash. From here, we’re open to anything—given the pervasive pessimism, a new uptrend wouldn’t shock us, but the onus remains on the bulls to prove they are retaking control before we become more constructive.

This week’s list has a wide mix of stocks that have resisted the market’s downward pull—with some actually advancing despite the environment. Our Top Pick is MasTec (MTZ), a stock we missed a couple of weeks ago but think it can have a sustained advance due to its exposure to many strong markets.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Allakos (ALLK)	77.83	80-84	66-69
Blackstone Group (BX)	49.12	47.5-49.5	42.5-43.5
D. R. Horton (DHI)	66.55	48-49.5	44.5-45
HubSpot (HUBS)	582.89	196-200	178-182
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)	97.20	92-95	83-85
LivePerson (LPSN)	58.55	37-39	33-34.5
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	59-61	53.5-54.5
Pinduoduo (PDD)	87.53	28-30	24-25.5
Synopsys (SNPS)	137.53	133-137	122-124
Target (TGT)	124.77	101-105	91-93

Current Market Outlook


Last week’s action was encouraging, with the major indexes snapping back decently from Monday’s selloff and with many individual growth stocks either acting resiliently and/or reacting well to earnings. That said, three up days (Tuesday-Thursday last week) are not enough to reverse the prior meltdown—right now, all major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages and, generally speaking, the overall intermediate-term trend is neutral-to-negative. We’re not advising you to hole up in your bunker, but the onus is on the bulls to prove that the tariff-induced decline was a shakeout; until then, it’s best to remain cautious by holding some cash, keeping new buys small and making sure your losers and laggards don’t slip much further.

Going along with the action in growth stocks, this week’s list is chock-full of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick is TransDigm (TDG), a solid 20%-ish grower in the aerospace field that gapped on earnings and is set to pay a huge one-time dividend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	75-78.5	64-66
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	144-147	128-131
Lattice Semi (LSCC)	23.92	17.5-18.5	15.5-16.2
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)	261.52	243-250	218-222
Medpace (MEDP)	76.28	75.5-78.5	67.5-69.5
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	124-130	107-110
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	85-88	75-77
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	80-84	70-72
TransDigm (TDG)	599.41	525-545	475-485
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	95-98	88-90

We’re in the middle of the summer market malaise. These markets tend to do whatever they were doing when investors went on vacation and stopped paying attention. The rubber usually hits the road when investors sober up and take a fresh look at things after Labor Day.

Sure, the market is historically cranky in September. Current fears about the Delta variant and inflation could gain more traction. The market could even sell off a bit. But I believe the current fears are overblown. Cyclical stocks and others that have been held back by recent concerns should shine again in the booming economy this fall.



In this issue, I highlight a stock with a strongly growing business that should thrive over the next several quarters as well as on the other side of the pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, it sells at a cheap valuation while the market is distracted by other things.

The chop factor remains in force in the market, with yet another round of rotation this week out of growth and into the broad market. Even so, we see more good than bad out there, with an increasing number of growth stocks having popped out of multi-month ranges and recent dips mostly looking manageable. We added another new name last week, and we could add more depending on how this rotation plays out, but tonight we’ll stand pat with our stocks and 30% in cash.

In tonight’s issue, we write about one sector that’s showing some signs of perking up, some encouraging sentiment readings and go over all of our stocks and many others we’re keeping a close eye on.

Earnings updates from three recommended companies as well as comments on other recommended stocks.

The market’s nascent bounce two weeks ago has morphed into a very impressive rally, led by a gaggle of growth stocks that are acting better than they have since late last year and early 2021. We’re not completely out of the woods, and earnings season can always throw a wrench into things, but there’s no question the evidence has improved. We’re putting some more money to work tonight, averaging up in one name and adding a familiar face back to the portfolio as well.

This is a huge week for earnings and economic news. Maybe, just maybe, the market will be driven by something other than tariff news.

This week, 180 of the 500 S&P companies report earnings, including several of the big tech companies. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP will be released. Jobs and inflation reports also come out this week. The consensus expectation for first-quarter GDP is 0.10%, way down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.

Things are certainly looking up in the market. The S&P 500 had an epic nine-day run of positive gains, the longest such streak in more than twenty years. The index rose over 10% during the streak. What’s going on?

The rally began after President Trump indicated a de-escalation of the trade war with China. There are ongoing negotiations with the other trading partners during the 90-day pause initiated on April 9^th. A perception is building that the worst of the tariff uncertainty is behind. Stocks also got a boost from earnings and economic news.

The market has leveled off since the huge recovery from the tariff Armageddon fears. And now, who knows.

The sticky issue to start the week is increasing trade tensions with China. A war of words is escalating between the two governments and threats are being made by both sides. It is being reported that President Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi today or later this week. Hopefully the two leaders will bring down the temperature.