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Don’t ever forget about the dividends. A couple months ago we were spiraling into a recession and bear market. Now, things look good. There’s a reason that dividends have accounted for 44% of market returns over the last hundred years.

All Quiet on the Western Front is an ironically titled movie about war that won several awards at last night’s Oscars. It could loosely describe the last few days in the U.S. stock market too, as the collapse of three major banks (and counting?) has abruptly sent stocks tumbling back down into bear market territory and brought anxiety, uncertainty and volatility back to the forefront. So today, we’re selling our one bank stock, plus one other shaky growth stock, but making room for a cookie-cutter retail company that’s on solid ground. It’s a longtime favorite of Cabot Growth Investor Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.

The new year started with a whimper. Last week’s 1.5% down move ended a streak of nine consecutive up weeks for the S&P 500, the longest streak since 2004.

The streak had to end eventually. And a pullback after a 15% move higher is normal. Bull markets tend to have several 3% and 5% down moves. There may be more downside in the weeks ahead. But we are still in a market that is trending higher.

The final numbers are in. And they’re impressive.

After a bear market in 2022, the market indexes came back sharply in 2023. That’s not unusual. Prior to last year, there had been nine years of negative S&P 500 returns since 1980. Seven of those down years were followed by up years, and four of those seven up years posted returns of 20% or higher. The market doesn’t usually stay beaten down for long.

We are smack dab in the heart of earnings season for this portfolio. With the market sputtering along without much conviction, individual stocks are taking center stage, and earnings are a major part of that.

Quarterly and annual earnings will be reported this week from AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). The reports could be a hugely important factor in determining the near-term direction of these stocks.

The strong November rally slowed down last week but it’s still very much alive. The S&P 500 closed last week up 8.7% for the month and the good times might continue.

The current belief in peak interest rates and a “soft landing” has investors still in an optimistic mood. The VIX, known as the market’s fear gauge, hit the lowest level since January 2020 last week. Any piece of good news could ignite a further rally with the current kindling.

The rally that began in November is slowing down, but not dying.

Things are still good. Inflation is falling, the Fed is probably done hiking rates, longer-term rates have peaked, and the economy is still strong. But it’s that time of year. The holidays have a way of taking investor focus away from the market. Stocks tend to do whatever they were doing when investors stopped paying attention, which in this case is edging higher ever so slowly.

The market had a great November. But the rally petered out.

Wall Street always overdoes it. It took the good news about peak interest rates to another level and started pricing in Fed rate cuts early next year. The market pulled back on Monday because the Fed dismissed that notion.

The market was already struggling after the Fed’s “higher for longer” comment about interest rates. Now it’s getting hit with ugly headlines regarding the situation in Israel.

Geopolitical risks are always out there, and they act up occasionally. Hopefully, this new Middle East situation won’t expand into a wider conflict. There is also the Ukraine conflict. These are risks that could develop into a much bigger problem. Even if they don’t, there is still the interest rate and inflation situation.

The market is always uncertain. No one ever really knows in which direction the next 5% or 10% move will be. But this is a much higher level of uncertainty than usual.

The good year so far has been a surprise. Most pundits were forecasting more gloom and doom at the beginning of the year. But the S&P 500 is up 15% YTD. It rallied on the promise of a soft landing and then got a further boost as artificial intelligence spending promises to be a strong growth catalyst for the market’s largest sector for years to come. After sputtering for the last six weeks, where does it go from here?

It’s officially a correction. The S&P 500 fell 10% below the 52-week high on a closing basis last week. Now what?

As usual, all eyes are on the Fed. The Central Bank will decide on interest rates on Wednesday. Also, this week are earnings from Apple (AAPL) and several other large companies and another jobs report on Friday. But the Fed should be the main event.

The market was hit hard last week, so all trends are down, and increased caution is advised.
In the portfolio this week, we’re selling four stocks, which will both reduce risk and raise cash.


As for the new recommendation, it’s one of the world’s leading uranium companies, which has a great growth story thanks to growing negative attitudes toward Russian energy and growing positive attitudes toward carbon-free energy.


Details inside.

With the market down big today, it’s possible that the growth stock correction has done enough damage—but until we see real strength, it’s better to adjust to the trend—and that means going with a value stock today—an old technology name that you’ll recognize. As for our current holdings, there is only one change, a downgrade of one stock, Broadcom (AVGO), to hold.

In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Intel (INTC), Kenvue (KVUE), Paramount Global (PARA) and SLB Ltd. (SLB).

Alcoa (AA) is navigating tariff-related challenges relating to aluminum pricing and sourcing.

SLB Ltd. (SLB) is well positioned to benefit from anticipated oil and natural gas price increases arising from the Iran/Israel conflict.

Every few months, I compile and read the results of our welcome series survey, which is taken by our newest subscribers. And while we get asked a lot of different questions on the survey, there’s one in particular that I see repeated frequently: “What are the differences between Cabot’s publications?” I’m going to explain our newsletters, one at a time in an ongoing series (similar to a series I wrote last year), to give you a better idea of how each one fits into your investing style and how you can take advantage of what we have to offer. Today I’m going to answer some of the most frequently asked questions about Cabot Market Letter. But first I want to introduce all of our publications.

Although the S&P 500 index has gone sideways in recent weeks, there is a lot going on under the hood.

The S&P 500 is now up over 40% from the bottom in March and less than 10% from the all time high. Forget about a bear market. It’s not even a correction any more.

Last week, I asked readers what they thought of airlines’ complex pricing schemes. (If you missed the issue, you can still read it here on the website.) Several of you responded with interesting comments, including the ones below. For the most part I don’t have a problem with the myriad and...