Cabot Stock of the Month Issue: July 11, 2024

Market Review

Sideways appears to be the rule of the markets these days—at least until the election is over and the Federal Reserve begins lowering rates. No rate cut this time, and now Fed watchers are saying we’ll be lucky to see just a one-quarter-point reduction this year.

Inflation—at 3.3%—is on the right track but has still not reached the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, so the Fed is not anxious to begin reducing interest rates.

Job openings continue to increase more than forecast, unemployment claims are steady, and the unemployment rate—at 4.1%—remains healthy. Housing prices continue to rise, now averaging $419,000 nationwide, although sales have softened, while inventory is rising.
Growth stocks remain the market leaders, with large-cap companies up 24.68% and midcaps gaining 6.27%, year to date. Large-cap value stocks are in third place, up 5.17%. Small caps are showing some life, except small-cap value companies, which have lost 3.40% so far in 2024.

Sector-wise, there’s been a big shift in leaders this month. Technology is once again ahead of the pack (+20.99%), followed by Communication Services (up 20.78%), and Financial Services (10.48%). Real Estate (-4.39%), Basic Materials (+2.76%), and Consumer Discretionary (+5.87) are the laggards, with the latter two sectors at least in the positive category.

Here at Cabot, we haven’t changed our thinking much since last month—stay picky, take profits when you can, and don’t hesitate to clean out the losers in your portfolio. Some of the best advice I received when I started down this investment road was, “It’s okay to fall in love with the company, but not the stock.”

That adage has served me well, and you’ll see that in this issue, we are taking that advice, cashing in on some profits and dropping a couple of investments that haven’t performed as well as I would like.

And since the market is somewhat stalled, in this issue, I’m offering you an aggressive idea to help boost your gains—a company that is employing cutting-edge technology and adding new products that are revolutionizing the financial industry.

Feature Recommendation

Robinhood Markets Inc Cl A (HOOD): Growing Beyond a Trading Platform

Recommended by Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst, Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader

“We consider digital brokerage leader Robinhood (HOOD) to be the glamour play in the sector, thanks largely to its exposure to currently ‘hot,’ but volatile, areas like crypto, options and even the resurgent meme stocks, not to mention many unique attractions—such as its paid Gold membership for $5 per month, where you can get higher rates on cash, more trading tools and even good deposit matches.

“And if the bull continues to heat up, the company should be a prime beneficiary from the increase in trading activity among small participants that typically follows, thanks to the aforementioned perks and advantages over stodgier big-name competitors.

“To that end, Robinhood’s equity trading volume for May expanded 76% from a year ago and rose 23% from April, to $87 billion, while assets under custody (AUC, a key metric) of $135 billion were up 65% year-on-year. Net deposits were $3.6 billion, translating to a 35% annualized growth rate compared to April’s AUC. Net deposits through May are already more than 2023 as a whole. (Like many peers, the firm also benefits from larger interest spreads.)

“To keep the growth trend on track, the firm is making an aggressive push into 24-hour trading—it already offers this service for 900 stocks and ETFs. The company is working with partners to provide the needed liquidity for this endeavor in a move that could force bigger brokerages to follow Robinhood’s lead in offering round-the-clock trading—a move the top brass thinks will attract more assets to the platform.

“On the crypto front, the company just acquired global crypto exchange Bitstamp, adding an institutional business to Robinhood’s stock and crypto trading app segments. And Robinhood’s pipeline of new offerings continues to grow, including retirement accounts that should bring in a wider asset pool, plus a credit card offering that will enable the firm to become a bank as well as a brokerage.

“Additionally, Robinhood is expanding its presence internationally. It just launched in the U.K. earlier this year, with plans to add more countries in the coming months. “Obviously, the stocks and crypto movements will be key, but if the bull market rolls on, Robinhood should see business soar.

“HOOD is holding up well despite the crypto correction that’s playing out, which I take as a good overall sign. Buy”

For a company that’s only been around 11 years, Robinhood knows how to make news.

In 2021, the company made waves with the trading frenzy with meme stock GameStop (GME) and, recently, the frenzy was revived via investor Roaring Kitty’s Twitter posts.

All that noise led to extreme volatility in the stock which has helped to obscure the elements that make Robinhood an attractive investment.

The company’s platform continues to grow and now its users can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), American depository receipts (ADRs), options, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Additionally, investors can trade fractional shares, buy on margin, sweep their cash sweep, create retirement accounts, buy IPOs and trade 24 hours a day.

Robinhood caters to the younger generation, providing educational tools such as beginners’ guides, investing fundamentals, feature tutorials, a financial dictionary, and Crypto Learn and Earn. Additionally, customers can access banking products such as Robinhood credit cards, cash cards and spending accounts, and wallets.

As Mike mentioned, the company just agreed to buy Bitstamp, the world’s longest-running crypto exchange with retail and institutional customers across the EU, U.K., U.S., and Asia. The deal is due to close in the first half of next year.

Additionally, Robinhood is making forays into artificial intelligence (AI) with its announcement that it will acquire Pluto Capital Inc., an innovative AI-powered investment research platform.

According to the company’s press release, “Pluto’s algorithms excel in tailoring investment strategies to individual customer profiles. Pluto offers highly customized recommendations by analyzing factors, including risk tolerance, investment goals and historical behavior. This personalized approach ensures that each investor receives strategies aligned with their unique financial objectives.”

That sounds like it fits in well with Robinhood’s hands-on reputation with its customers, doesn’t it?

Robinhood has also expressed its intention to offer advisory services to further enhance its financial services. The AI tools will most likely play an important part in that endeavor.

The shares of Robinhood were recently upgraded by Wolfe Research to “outperform,” citing its “durable” 30% GAAP earnings growth runway for the mobile broker, driven by 20% net deposit growth and 5% account growth. The company has a 29 price target on Robinhood stock.

The company will release its second-quarter 2024 financial results on Wednesday, August 7, 2024, after market close. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $0.14 on $621.26 million in revenues.

About the Analyst: Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst, Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader

A growth stock and market timing expert, Michael Cintolo is chief analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader. Since joining Cabot in 1999, Mike has uncovered exceptional growth stocks and helped to create new tools and rules for buying and selling stocks. Perhaps most notable was his development of the proprietary trend-following market timing system, Cabot Tides, which has helped Cabot place among the top handful of market timing newsletters numerous times.

As the markets continue with their sideways motions, I decided we needed a “spark” of an idea for this month’s issue—a company that operates in a high-growth arena. And for that idea, I went to Mike Cintolo, who always offers recommendations of cutting-edge, high-growth stocks. And once again, he didn’t disappoint!

Here is our interview:

Nancy: Inflation has been very stubborn, prompting the Federal Reserve to drag its feet on cutting interest rates. Yet, the markets have remained pretty resilient to the uncertainty, mostly on a bullish bent.

In your recent Cabot Top Ten Trader, you said, “Don’t fight the evidence.” Would you please elaborate on that statement, as to your current advice to investors?

Mike: Not fighting the evidence is one of my central tenets, and my point here is simply that, while everyone can guess about inflation, rate cuts, economic growth/recession, the market has the final say. Right now, the vast majority of the market is in a trading range and most things are trendless—so we’re picking our spots and holding some cash.

Nancy: Your Cabot Top Ten Trader focuses more on the short term vs. the 12-18-month period that many newsletters target. Do you have a favorite holding period for a stock—one in which you say to yourself, it’s just not going the way I want or it’s time to take a few dollars off the table? In other words, what prompts you to sell?

Mike: It’s a good question, but I don’t believe in using specific time frames. If a stock wants to go straight up for 9 months, I’m fine just holding on. That said, I would say I’m not afraid to cut a loss in 2-3 weeks if a stock doesn’t perform. And, especially in this environment, I’m often taking partial profits in the same time frame (2-3 weeks) if things go well. But from there, I’ll often trail a stop and see what comes. On average, our holdings are probably a month or two, but it varies greatly.

Nancy: Large-cap stocks, and especially growth stocks, are still leading the markets. Are you seeing any specific sectors that look particularly attractive at this time?

Mike: So, the divergence out there is immense. For instance, in the latest push to new highs in the S&P 500, the number of stocks hitting new highs within that index was at similar levels to late April … when the market was just coming out of a correction!

That said, right now, I am seeing more setups if earnings season goes well. Chips are obviously still strong, but one growth area that intrigues me is software. It was a laggard earlier this year and really got clobbered in April/May, but it’s stormed back of late. There are many names in that group that aren’t obvious and should be “early stage” (not overplayed). So, if the market cooperates, I see some potential leadership there.

Nancy: You have an excellent track record of bringing little-known stocks to the attention of investors. Without disclosing trade secrets, would you share a couple of the technical indicators that you employ to discover these companies?

Mike: I wish I had some neat secrets that I could plug into a computer and spit out emerging blue chips, but the truth is my screens are very broad—looking for strength, liquidity and some general growth numbers (I prefer sales growth over 20%, but preferably a lot higher). But from there, it’s really digging into the chart, looking for powerful volume clues and a name that’s “under control” (telling you institutions are in control of the stock, as opposed to something flopping wildly all over the place) and a story that could result in rapid and reliable growth—which is like catnip to those aforementioned institutional investors. I know that’s not a simple answer, but it’s how I do it anyway.

Nancy: What are the 3-5 most critical challenges to the growth of the stocks in your portfolio right now?

Mike: Oh, far and away, it’s simply the market environment. I see many stocks fitting the fundamental criteria I look for, but very few names are running away on the upside, with lots of selling near resistance and choppy action. I do think the higher rates are keeping money on the sideline (I’m sure there are, say, pension funds, that are happy to get 6% or 7% in corporate bonds without taking the risk of buying a volatile, mid-sized growth name), so if that changes without the economy falling apart, it could help.

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Portfolio Updates

Tom Hutchinson brought us up to date on Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), commenting, “It’s been a few weeks of comeuppance for the mighty AI stocks. QCOM soared 39% from May 1 to June 18. But it has fallen 12% in the last few weeks. Not to worry, it was only down 2% for June. The recent stock performance reflects profit-taking in the AI space after a big surge from the last round of earnings reports. But QCOM should continue to deliver as several analysts see a major smartphone upgrade cycle for AI next year. Qualcomm is at the leading edge of chips that enable AI for smartphones and should benefit mightily. BUY”

Qualcomm—in conjunction with other tech businesses like Microsoft (MSFT)—is behind a big marketing push for “AI PCs,” laptops and desktops that are “promising embedded artificial intelligence features.”

These computers will include neural processing units with AI functions such as “natural language processing, image recognition and speech synthesis.”

The chip and computer makers are hopeful these enhancements will increase sales. U.S. sales this year are forecast to rise 5% to 69 million units and increase by 8% in 2025, according to Canalys.

Some analysts are predicting QCOM’s shares will go to 260, another 25% from its present price. Let’s keep our remaining shares for now, and let our profits ride. Hold for now.

Chris Preston, Chief Analyst of Cabot Value Investor and Cabot Stock of the Week, says, “It’s time to say goodbye to Citigroup (C),” saying, “While shares have made progress this year, up 17%, they’ve retreated from 64 to 60 in the last three weeks, and are now at their lowest point since April, dipping below their 50-day moving average. In a value portfolio, a four-point dip in three weeks normally isn’t much cause for concern. But in this case, it’s part of a pattern with Citigroup since it was added to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio in late 2021: one step forward, two steps backward. The result? A stock that’s down 10% in two and a half years.

“I had hoped that the strong results from the company’s first-quarter earnings report might help turn the tide in a more permanent way. Instead, Citi shares have dipped to two-month lows at a time when the market is at all-time highs. That’s not a good sign.”

“MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL”

I agree; our shares are up 48%. We did a partial cash-in on Citi’s shares in May. So, let’s go all in and take the remainder of our profits. Sell

Michael Brush, Chief Analyst of Cabot Cannabis Investor, updated his view on Curaleaf (CURLF), reporting, “Curaleaf has launched a line of edible products and drinks that use hemp-derived THC. The products will be sold under its Select and Zero Proof brands, and third-party brands. Products will be sold from its new hemp product website, TheHempCompany.com. Curaleaf expects to sell through other partnerships including one with DoorDash (DASH). The products will be available in 25 states and the District of Columbia. BUY”

Curaleaf will report its financial and operating results for the second quarter after market close on August 7, 2024. Wall Street is forecasting a loss per share of $.05 on $348.6 million in revenues. Continue to Hold.

TransMedics Group (TMDX) was reviewed by Tyler Laundon, Chief Analyst of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and Cabot Early Opportunities, noting, “TransMedics Group (TMDX) hit another all-time high earlier this week, possibly helped along by new coverage from CL King (161 price target) and a price target increase from TD Cowen (bumped up from 130 to 175). Shares closed just below 142 yesterday. HOLD A QUARTER”

Coverage of the shares of TMDX was just initiated at Stephens, with an “overweight” rating, noting, “The company’s OCS is improving the results of transplants while increasing the percentage of donated organs that can be successfully utilized. And TransMedic’s products reduce hospital costs.” Let’s continue to hold our remaining shares.

Tom also updated his take on Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), saying, “Just when this one starts to get some upside traction, it reverts to its recent meandering ways. This infrastructure company that used to be a market superstar in years past has been going sideways since the end of last year. The operational performance has been sound. Brookfield reported strong earnings and the shares rallied strongly off the early April dip. The company also raised the quarterly dividend by 6%. During sideways periods you still get the dividend and there could be a big move in store if interest rates trend significantly lower. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY”

Brookfield is predicting its FFO per share to rise by more than 10% in 2024.

CEO Sam Pollock was recently quoted, “Our sector-leading organic growth is highly correlated to the two most significant trends of this decade, namely, decarbonization and AI/digitalization. The investments we are currently making in our transmission, residential decarbonization, semiconductor and data center businesses will fuel our growth for many years.” Continue to Buy.

Chris Preston commented on NOV, Inc (NOV), saying, “There was no company-specific news for NOV this week, but the energy sector is starting to gather momentum as oil prices have risen to nearly $83 a barrel after dipping as low as $73 last month. NOV shares have followed suit, advancing nearly 7% in the last month, despite a modest pullback this past week. Crude prices being back above $80 for the first time since April could serve as a tailwind for NOV shares going forward.

“The stock has 30% upside to our 24 price target. It trades at just 11.9x forward earnings estimates and 0.84x sales, with a modest 1.2% dividend yield helping the cause a bit. BUY”

NOV Inc. will hold a conference call to discuss its second quarter 2024 results on Friday, July 26, 2024, at 10 a.m. (Central Time). Analysts are expecting EPS of $0.35 on $2.19 billion in revenues. Continue to Buy.

Carl Delfeld, Chief Analyst for Cabot Explorer, updated his views on International Business Machines (IBM), reporting, “International Business Machines (IBM) shares may not represent a high-flyer tech stock but will likely deliver steady results. Its stock looks cheap at less than 17 times forward earnings and a forward dividend yield of 3.9% should limit downside risk. Over the long term, the stock has upside as its hybrid cloud and AI businesses accelerate. Buy a Half”

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a “buy” rating and a 200 price target.

Our shares are up 32%. Continue to Hold.

Gates Industrial Corp, plc (GTES) was also reviewed by Chris Preston, who noted, “Gates is coming off some mixed earnings results in May. The 31-cent EPS results outpaced analyst estimates of 30 cents and was up 20% from the 25 cents it earned in the first quarter a year ago. However, sales of $862.6 million even more narrowly missed analyst estimates and, more importantly, represented a 3.9% decline from the $897.7 million in revenue from Q1 a year ago. The underwhelming results sent GTES tumbling about 8.7% in the immediate aftermath; it has continued to trickle downward, dipping to the mid-15s, a three-and-a-half-month low.

“GTES shares were flat this week and seem to have found new support around 15.5. The stock has 28% upside to our 20 price target. GTES trades at 11x earnings, 1.19x sales and 1.27x book value, so they remain undervalued by traditional measures. GTES remains our best-performing stock, with a return of 46% in less than two years. BUY”

Our shares in GTES are up 38%. I’m going to Hold the remainder of our shares for now.

Tom Hutchinson reviewed UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH), saying, “Everything points to UNH being a great stock except the performance since it has been in the portfolio. Since it was added in April of 2023 it has returned -3%. The S&P is up 36% over the same period. MCK is up 63% and LLY is up 150%. I’m tempted to dump it but every time I look at the profits, the industry, and the track record I talk myself into keeping it. UnitedHealth reported impressive earnings last quarter and issued strong guidance. The stock has blown away the returns of the S&P over the last five- and ten-year periods. BUY”

UNH has raised its dividend every year for the past 15 years, upping it by 12% to $2.10 a share last month. The company has seen double-digit growth, yet remains undervalued (mostly due to the ups and downs of the healthcare industry).

I agree. Continue to Buy.

Eight of the nine analysts surveyed by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) have rated Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock as a buy or a strong buy, based not on its premium price or its popular weight-loss drug, but on its “promising pipeline” of drugs.

Novo is in the midst of Phase 3 clinical studies evaluating the semaglutide drug in treating Alzheimer’s disease and in metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), also known as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

Additionally, Wall Street is predicting that CagriSema, a combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide will become a blockbuster.

And, of course, we can’t discount the growth of the company’s obesity drugs in a marketplace that is forecast to reach $100 billion or more each by 2030. Buy on pullbacks.

I’m disappointed in Baxter International (BAX). The shares have lost 20% since we featured them in March and weren’t helped by the company’s recall of its Life2000 Ventilation System a couple of weeks ago. Let’s cut our losses. Sell

Chris Preston reported on Honda Motor Co. (HMC), noting, “Honda is making the full pivot to hybrids, with the Civic soon to become the latest addition to its hybrid fleet. Investors have started gravitating more to the companies that sell them. Invariably, those are well-established, big-name car companies made famous by many decades of selling internal combustion engine vehicles; most aren’t ready to fully abandon their roots but want to tap into the surging national (and global) appetite for electric, so they instead are turning to hybrids as a compromise. As a result, these once-stodgy car companies are tapping into new revenue streams, and their share prices are surging accordingly.

“Among the hybrid-rejuvenated, brand-name automakers, Honda offers the best value. Buy”

It was recently announced that Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NSANY) and Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC are linking up to develop EV software and build charging networks.

I’m willing to let our losses ride on this for a bit. Let’s change our rating to Hold for now.

Our shares of FTAI Aviation (FTAI) have soared 35%, and show no sign of slowing down.

Brokerage firm Jefferies is forecasting FTAI’s EBITDA to reach $1.1 billion in 2026, 10% higher than the consensus estimate. The firm set a 120 price target on the shares.

Meanwhile, 324 funds now hold positions in FTAI, up from 254 a year ago. Continue to Buy.

Tom Hutchinson also updated his views on our newest recommendation, McKesson Corporation (MCK), noting, “This supply chain pharmaceutical giant has pulled back from the high over the past couple of weeks. It’s no big deal. That’s normal behavior for this stock that has been trending higher since March of 2023. Everything continues to look solid. McKesson indicated earnings growth of 14% to 17% for this year. MCK is up 24% YTD. The pharmaceutical supply chain Goliath dominates a market that grows all by itself because of the aging population. BUY”

The company will release its first quarter fiscal 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, August 7, 2024. Analysts expect EPS of $7.23 on revenues of $87.19 billion.

Continue to Buy.

Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

ETF Strategies

I’m pleased with the overall performance of our ETF portfolio and want to take some more profits this month, by selling one-half of our investment in Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI). We’ve gained more than 50% on this issue, so let’s cash in some of that gain. Sell one-half of your holdings.

For new subscribers and as a reminder to existing subscribers, I wanted to share my recommendations for your Cabot Stock of the Month portfolio construction, based on your age:

And your personal risk tolerance:

Of course, these categories are not set in stone; you may want to tweak your percentages for your personal preferences.

Lastly, these ETFs remain on our Watch List:

• Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Fund (VBK)
• Midcap Growth ETF Vanguard (VOT)
• Total Intl Stock ETF Vanguard (VXUS)

Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Are Bringing Incredible Opportunities to the Brokerage Industry

Worldwide, the global securities brokerages and stock exchanges market size is forecast to grow to around $3,474.52 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.74%. The U.S. market size is expected to rise to $196.99 billion this year, growing at a CAGR of 4.23%, to reach $242.33 billion by 2029.

And in Robinhood’s favor, the online portion of the brokerage marketplace is expanding at an even faster rate. It is expected to advance at a CAGR of 14.7%, from $9.98 billion last year to $14.04 billion by 2031.

There are two major catalysts that are boosting the industry’s expansion:

Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to Finra.org, artificial intelligence (AI) will radically change the brokerage industry in several ways:

Communications with customers will be enhanced by automating and customizing communications via virtual assistants and email. It is expected that AI will radically elevate the virtual assistant experience by utilizing National Language Processing (NLP) (including speech-to-text/text-to-speech conversion, tone recognition, and text generation), Machine Learning (ML), and sophisticated customer authentication tools, including the use of facial recognition, fingerprints, and voice biometrics.

As for email inquiries, AI will help “screen and classify incoming client emails based on key features, such as the sender’s identity, the email’s subject line, and an automated review of the email message itself.”

Additionally, some brokerages are using AI for outreach targeting, analyzing existing and potential customers’ investment habits to provide customized content.

Investment processes such as account management to build customer profiles and offer customized research.

Portfolio management and trading. We’ve already seen robo investing, but AI has the potential to take computer-generated advice to another level, by using applications to determine trends and price movements, based on traditional and non-traditional services (such as social media and satellite imagery).

Trading to maximize speed and price performance.

Operational functions such as compliance and risk management.

Surveillance and monitoring of data and individuals, including traders, registered representatives, employees, and customers more efficiently based on risk.

Customer identification and financial crime monitoring.

Regulatory intelligence management.

Liquidity and cash management optimization.

Credit risk management of the brokerage’s counterparties.

Cybersecurity.

Administrative functions, by using AI to automate high-volume, less complex, repetitive, and manual tasks.

Document review and information extraction to read legal contracts, custody documents, and loan agreements much more efficiently and in less time than a person can process.

Cryptocurrency

This year, the U.S. cryptocurrency market is expected to reach $51.5 billion, increasing at a CAGR of 8.62% over the next four years, and growing to 992.50 million users.

But of course, crypto is creating some major changes in the stock markets of the world, including:

Increased market volatility.

Increased investment opportunities, including diversification, the development of new products (such as futures contracts and ETFs), and possibly higher returns.

Rise of blockchain technology. It’s expected to go beyond cryptocurrency to help other industries automate trade settlement, clearing, and payments.

Risks of hype and speculation, which can lead to higher volatility.

Regulatory uncertainty. Currently, the industry is not regulated like the traditional securities industry. That will be sure to change with time, but right now, this lack of regulation creates uncertainty and significant risk to investors.

Both of these innovations are sure to further boost the brokerage industry’s prospects. And Robinhood—with its recent acquisitions in both areas—has the potential to build its top and bottom lines.

I consider this stock to be aggressive, so please add to your portfolio with that in mind.

Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

**Purchase price reflects a 3-for-1 stock split

The next Cabot Money Club Stock of the Month issue will be

published on August 8, 2024.

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