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Small-Cap Confidential
Undiscovered stocks that can make you rich
This month we are going with a small industrial company that is showing how consistent focus on operational improvement can pay dividends.

Once thought of as a highly cyclical company with management that tended to drop the ball, execution has improved dramatically. In 2022 revenue was up 14% and EPS was up 41%.

With exposure to megatrends like infrastructure and global electrification, I see more upside ahead.

This month we are dialing up the risk a little with a small software company that has a potentially disruptive platform that streamlines back-office processes for small and mid-sized businesses.

There are risks. The economy isn’t super strong, and this is a competitive market. But this company has a truly innovative set of solutions, is in one of the market’s most beat-up sectors and has new products and a low-cost customer acquisition strategy.

It’s also profitable and generates positive free cash flow, two attributes that make it an attractive acquisition target.

This month we’re going with a small software company serving a resilient industry that has been slow to adopt to cloud technology, but which is coming on strong now.

Despite the tough macro environment this company has been beating expectations for many quarters. Management has been raising revenue guidance too, and a tweak to the business model is starting to pay dividends.

This month we’re going with a little-known consulting company that’s growing revenue and EPS in the double digits as it helps organizations adapt to the changing times.

It is growing especially quickly in areas like digital transformation, which is challenging for lumbering organizations in the healthcare and education segments where the firm generates the bulk of its revenue.

With a fresh revenue and profit growth strategy and a plan to return more money to shareholders, this little company’s stock looks great.

With market jitters returning following the Fed’s meeting yesterday, we’re going back to a segment that’s served us well so far this year – MedTech.

Today’s portfolio addition is another highly specialized company that’s doing things far better than the competition and growing by over 30%.

The market has been trying to climb off its knees this week as we’re finally getting some solid evidence that both inflation and the job market are cooling.

In a seemingly odd twist, in the short term what’s bad for the economy is probably good for the stock market. While that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet, I’m going to up our risk profile slightly with a potential big winner in the battery industry.

This company is currently qualifying batteries for wearable technologies and expects to move into more consumer markets, as well as the EV market, in the coming years. All the details are inside the October Issue.

The market has been iffy since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “prepare for pain” speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.

With interest rates up and (most) stocks down since I’m going with a high-quality name this month.

This healthcare specialist just posted 44% growth in Q2 and has grown its covered lives by 80% over the last 12 months. It’s profitable, and with a bucket of new contracts in the first half of 2022 the business looks set up for a terrific 2023.


The market is getting stronger and higher-growth names are leading the charge.

This month we dig into an overlooked company with a global payments platform that’s helping solve digital payment challenges in complex industries.

Growth is expected to be over 30% for a number of years, and the stock is acting well.


This month we go back to the MedTech well and pull out a small company with a potentially transformative technology that could shake up the organ transplant market.

With recent FDA approvals and a platform that appears to be head and shoulders above the standard of care, this company is enjoying rapid revenue growth now.


The market continues to be messy, but we’re going to take a partial swing at a profitable software company playing in a big, growth market – cloud services.

This company is like a smaller version of Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. But without all the other parts of those much, much larger companies.

We may be a bit early. But we’ll manage that risk by taking a half position in a company that’s likely to grow above 30% for years and is very profitable.


The market remains very challenging for high-growth stocks. While I have a list of innovative companies I’m excited to recommend (at some point), for now we’ll continue to diversify our portfolio with more value-oriented names.

This month’s new addition is a little-known supermarket chain I’ve been following for some time. The pitch is very straightforward – rising prices and an insulated business model should help the company post impressive growth in 2022 and 2023. Not to mention we have upside if/as the name spreads among investors that are increasingly looking for just this kind of stock.

Last but not least, the chart looks fantastic.

Inflation is hot and the Fed just began raising rates. It is expected to hike ten more times by the end of next year.

While yield curve inversion and recession risk is out there, many banks are flush with cash. And consumers are in great shape. As rates go steadily higher, bank stocks are poised to significantly grow earnings.

The most aggressive way to play this is with a bank that’s leveraged to short-term rates. That’s the strategy we’ll take today with a pure-play digital currency bank.


Small-cap stocks have underperformed their larger-cap peers by a wide margin since Jerome Powell’s Congressional Testimony just over three weeks ago.

Part of that is because of the hawkish tone he struck. But mostly it’s because of the fallout of the SVB debacle, concerns over a 2023 financial crisis and what the spillover effects could be on the broader economy.
Yesterday the FOMC decided to move ahead with another 25bps hike, bringing its federal funds target rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The statement was missing the phrase, “...ongoing increases in rates would be appropriate,” which was present in the eight previous statements, suggesting the Fed may be done hiking soon.
The big news of the week is, of course, rising risks in the financial system following the failures of several smaller regional banks in the U.S. as well as instability in some larger institutions abroad, mainly Credit Suisse (CS). We also received February inflation data in the form of CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday), which continue to show that inflation is moderating but isn’t collapsing. The February PPI report showed a 0.1% decline versus estimates for a 0.3% increase.
The big events so far this week have been Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday) and the House Financial Services panel (Wednesday). He sounded more hawkish than he did during his February 1 press conference.
We’re in the thick of our portfolio’s earnings season so today’s update will be short and sweet. My focus this week is on providing updates on positions as they report and laying out expectations for companies that have not yet reported.

While our reports have been mostly good so far the market is still swinging with the interest rate breezes. I had thought that influence might diminish but with Fed members making hawkish public comments and expectations for more hikes after March both the 10-year and 2-year yield have become troublesome.
The market has continued to hold up surprisingly well in the face of less-than-great inflation reports.

We’re in a period where it appears the pros of slightly stronger economic growth outweigh the cons of a slower-than-desired inflation retreat. Earnings season is helping to return focus to company specifics, for the time being.

Our earnings season really heats up next week as we should have at least six positions report. It’s going to be an intense week, so buckle up!
This week has been taking place in the shadow of last week’s market-moving events.

Of course, I’m talking about the FOMC meeting and the resulting 25bps hike, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference where the term “disinflation” reverberated around the conference room over and over. The event sent the market higher in a risk-on rally that extended the move from the day before.
Our area was nailed with rain last night, knocking out internet service at our house. After spending a good part of the day skipping around town to get WiFi and doing what I can on a cell signal, my patience with technology is about gone. Coffee shops are great, but where are my mega screens?!
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index hit a 2022 closing low of 1,064 on September 26. On November 11 it moved back above its 200-day moving average line and closed at 1,232. That was a 16% move off the low.

The index then moved sideways for a few weeks before dropping back below both its 50- and 200-day moving average lines in mid-December. At that point, the index found support at 1,135, roughly 7% above the November lows.
The inflation outlook has certainly moved toward the “less bad” end of the spectrum over the last week. That’s the big-picture reason stocks have been doing well since last Friday. On Tuesday the NFIB Small Business Survey (December data) showed that the percentage of small businesses with job openings is falling, as are the percentage of businesses expecting to increase hiring over the next three months and the percentage planning to raise average selling prices.
I hope you’ve been having a good holiday season and are looking forward to a New Year. I know I am, especially considering the rough year for the stock market. It’s time to move on!
Small-cap stocks continue to trade in the same 5% range that they’ve been in for the last month. On the S&P 600 Small Cap Index that translates to a range of 1,184 – 1,252. At the low end of that range we have the upward sloping 50-day line.

Flywire (FLYW) reported Q4 results after the close yesterday that beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. Revenue was up 42% to $73 million (beat by $7.55 million) while GAAP EPS of -$0.01 beat by $0.11.
Expensify (EXFY) reported after the bell yesterday and revenue was a touch light (2% miss) while EPS beat expectations on the back of strong margins. Revenue rose 7.8% to $43.5 million (missed by $850K) while adjusted EPS of $0.07 beat by a penny. Management reaffirmed long-term revenue guidance of 25% to 35%.
TransMedics Group (TMDX) reported another terrific quarter after the bell yesterday that should have shares trading higher today. Revenue grew 223.7% to $31.4 million (beating by a whopping $7.8 million) while GAAP EPS of -$0.21 improved from -$0.46 in the year-ago quarter and beat by $0.11. That result caps off a year in which TransMedics grew revenue by 209% to $93.5 million.
Sprout Social (SPT) reported Q4 results after the close yesterday that were close to expectations as bigger deals, partnerships (i.e., and price increases drove revenue and annualized recurring revenue (ARR) higher, despite a challenging market for IT spending. Revenue in Q4 was up 30.8% to $69.7 million (missed by $200,000) while adjusted EPS of $0.03 increased from -$0.05 a year ago and beat by $0.05.
Inspire Medical (INSP) delivered yet another better-than-expected quarter after the closing bell yesterday as Q4 results came in near the high end of management’s pre-announced range.
I don’t love the action in Procept (PRCT) this week. While the broad market has been acting well and a lot of “risk on” stocks have gone up, shares of PRCT have headed south.
I don’t love the action in Procept (PRCT) this week. While the broad market has been acting well and a lot of “risk on” stocks have gone up, shares of PRCT have headed south.
This morning Inspire (INSP) issued preliminary Q4 2022 results that came in ahead of expectations. Management said it sees Q4 revenue up 76% to around $137.7 million (consensus was at $117 million, or +49%).
Enovix (ENVX) management hosted a two-hour-long presentation from their Fremont, CA factory yesterday afternoon that went deep into the company’s outlook for battery production, sales projections and customer interest. The team also talked about new senior management hires.
We’ve only held Treace Medical (TMCI) for about a month, but it’s been a wild ride.
Shares of Treace Medical (TMCI) have sold off this morning following the publishing of a short report from Culper Research.
This morning’s “less bad” CPI report (what a difference 0.2% makes!) is just what the market needed to get off its knees.