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Small-Cap Confidential
Undiscovered stocks that can make you rich
Issues
There is a growing mental health crisis going on out there.

But it’s starting to be addressed by a tiny, unknown (so far) company with a virtual care platform that’s beginning to make a difference across the U.S. And it’s doing so while growing both the top and bottom lines.

All the details are inside the April Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
Half of all people need cataract surgery. But even though messing with your eyes is a massive decision, the Big 3 MedTech players in this market don’t have the best solution out there.

This is where today’s company comes in. It has developed cutting-edge technology that drives better outcomes for patients needing cataract surgery. The key? Its lens can be customized once in the eye!

All the details are inside the March Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
The auto insurance market has been in a deep freeze since the middle of 2021. But now it’s thawing ... maybe even shifting into growth mode. That means huge potential for companies with direct access to the market.

That’s where today’s idea comes in. It’s a micro-cap internet company that offers unfiltered exposure to the auto, home and renters’ insurance markets.

All the details are inside the February Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
This month we’re jumping into a small software company that provides solutions for a specific small- and mid-sized business (SMB) market.

While the market for SMB software has been tough for the last two years, this company’s revenue growth has accelerated and customers that bailed in 2022 are coming back. In short, best-of-breed software isn’t dead! And this player is about to become profitable too. Enjoy!
This month we’re adding a small company that specializes in software that helps organizations train their employees and the partners they work with.

The company has a market cap of $1.5 billion, is growing revenue by about 25% and throws off a ton of cash relative to its size. Moreover, I rarely see this stock in the media, despite impressive growth and achievements. I think that’s about to change.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
This month we’re adding a small company that specializes in the opaque and inefficient market for selling surplus and salvaged goods.

The company has a market cap of just $580 million and is growing revenue and EPS by double digits. It’s an interesting setup, especially as government agencies and corporations increasingly look to save money and achieve sustainability goals.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
We’re switching things up this month, steering clear of high-tech, medical devices and other fancy types of companies.

This company is super easy to understand, sells a product pretty much everybody adores, has a seasonal tailwind and is executing on its profit growth agenda.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
This month we’re jumping into a highly specialized financial services company that helps immigrants send money to friends and families overseas.

You can think of it as the modern version of Western Union (WU). But there’s more to the story than that. Starting with a vision that’s a lot more about helping customers than overcharging them.

The hook is that revenue growth is off the charts. And it’s profitable!

All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
This month we’re digging into an emerging software star that specializes in helping brands communicate with consumers like you and me.

The details behind the technology are a bit technical. But if you’ve noticed an uptick in personalized emails and text messages letting you know it’s a good night to get takeout, or that those shoes you’ve been pining for are back in stock, you get the picture. Enjoy!
This month we’re digging into a recovering healthcare specialist that is both a self-help and an AI automation story.

After a few missteps in 2022, a significant acquisition and a new management team have the stock on the right track again.

Moreover, high healthcare utilization and a rapid acceleration in the company’s automation capabilities suggest strong revenue and profit margin growth throughout 2023 and into 2024. Enjoy!
This month I’m featuring an innovative software company with an AI angle.

While AI is all the rage, bordering on hype, this company’s learning platform has been harnessing the technology for a few years. The latest iterations of AI are likely to help make its product better and open new monetization opportunities.

It’s a neat story and the company has terrific products that are loved by users. Because of the recent run in tech stocks, we’ll start with a half-sized position. Enjoy!
For the second month in a row we’re going where the growth appears most resilient. Which means MedTech.

This month it’s another company focused on the spine. But a very specific area. The company specializes in implants for sacroiliac joint (SI) fusion. It already reported Q1 results (beat expectations) and the stock is acting well.

Enjoy!
Updates
The story of the week was yesterday’s slightly hotter-than-expected CPI report, which has shifted the rate cut narrative/speculation to only two cuts this year, down from three, and sent the 10-year yield north of 4.55% (it was below 4.4% last Friday).

While this morning’s better-than-expected PPI number has helped to soften the CPI blow, the debate from here is going to be just how long the Fed is willing to push its luck/try not to rock the boat and keep rates where they are.
The story of the week in the markets has been that central bankers are still leaning toward cutting rates by mid-year (odds still favor a cut in June). That’s helped stocks do pretty well, with outsized performance in energy, banks, insurers and homebuilders.

I’ve been monitoring the performance of small-cap sector ETFs versus those of the comparable large-cap offerings. It’s been interesting to see small-cap financials, materials and industrials performing far better.
Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday, which followed the FOMC’s March policy decision (hold) and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), went better than expected.

Many investors were primed for Powell to dial back expectations for three rate cuts later this year. Yet the SEP maintained that stance, which was set in the December SEP. That’s despite a slightly higher PCE inflation rate and GDP forecast than was expected three months ago.
Small-cap stocks continue to underperform their larger peers though, with the exception of this morning, the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ETF (IJR) has been inching higher toward resistance at 110.

It’s possible that with expectations for the first rate cut being pushed out to June (currently, subject to change) that my expected small-cap rally has been similarly delayed. I have been surprised that this asset class hasn’t seen more momentum.
It’s amazing how much some of our stocks have moved over the last week while the average gain of our portfolio is almost EXACTLY the same as that of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index.

Measuring Wednesday to Thursday early morning, shares of Remitly (RELY) are up 18%, Docebo (DCBO) is up 17% and Enovix (ENVX) is down 12%. Taking a simple average of our positions’ change over the last five sessions, though, the average change is 0.7%. That compares to a 0.8% gain in the S&P 600!
Small caps traded slightly lower the first two sessions of this holiday-shortened week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wobbled a bit but enjoyed a bigger pop than small caps today.

Nothing high level that’s a huge priority at the moment, other than that today we saw a significant “risk on” rally as Nvidia’s (NVDA) monster quarter restoked the AI enthusiasm flame that was beginning to dim earlier in the week.

Given all the earnings reports, and another due up early tomorrow (DCBO) I’m jumping right into our stocks for short and sweet updates.

Small caps have had a volatile week, which we can blame on the CPI inflation report (Tuesday) and subsequent move in interest rates. That all said, if you just woke up from a two-week nap you wouldn’t notice much at all at the small-cap index level. It’s actually a touch higher than it was on January 30 and currently challenging the levels seen last Friday (pre-CPI report).

That’s all a long-winded way of saying the market has digested the CPI report and determined (for now) that one slightly-higher-than-expected reading doesn’t make a trend. It’s helped that a few Fed officials have said the same.
The past week hasn’t been the best for small-cap indices given some concerns around smaller financial institutions and modest weakness in value-oriented areas of the asset class. But big picture, the growthier areas continue to look good and in our specific higher growth arenas (software, MedTech, etc.) I haven’t seen much at all to complain about.

The real test will be how the next three weeks go as that timespan will cover the bulk of earnings reports from our portfolio.
It’s been another strong week for stocks despite rising concerns about overseas conflicts disrupting the flow of oil and that the market is overshooting just how fast the Fed will cut rates this year.

It wasn’t long ago that investors were factoring in an 80% chance of a March Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cut. Today that probability is down to just 40%.

That said, what’s most important is the expected trend in the FFR. While the timing of the first rate cut and the pace of subsequent cuts remains open to debate, there’s no arguing that the market still sees rates significantly lower at the end of 2024.
With the market bouncing around in the first two weeks of the year on more speculation about Fed rate cut magnitude/cadence (economists are now thinking slower and fewer of them) and mounting geopolitical risks, small caps as an asset class have begun to trail the broader market.

That said, on a stock-specific basis there’s been a lot of positive motion in small caps in the MedTech and software space, which is where we concentrate.
The first two weeks of 2024 have been a bit sloppy with the markets down the first week, strengthening a bit this week then back down again today as this morning’s inflation numbers (CPI) came in a little higher than expected.

Thus far small caps have lagged large caps this year at the index level, though it’s not worth overthinking it too much just 11 days into the year.
First off, just a little housekeeping. I’ll be taking time next week to spend with my family, parents, siblings and new niece in Vermont. Much of our production staff will also be taking some time off, so there won’t be a Weekly Update next Thursday. If there is any pressing news I’ll address it via Special Bulletin.

I hope you have a Happy Holiday season!
Alerts
Sell Second Half Remitly (RELY)
Sell Braze (BRZE)

EverQuote (EVER) and TransMedics (TMDX) Deliver


At 6:30 AM ET this morning Docebo (DCBO) dropped its Q4 earnings press release. The company operates a learning platform for both internal and external learners and, yes, AI is mentioned in the first sentence of the press release!

Weave (WEAV) reported Q4 results after the close yesterday that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines while also giving 2024 guidance above consensus. Revenue grew 21.2% to $45.7 million (beating by $1.5 million) while EPS of -$0.01 improved by $0.05 over last year and beat consensus by $0.03.
Shares of Enovix (ENVX) are trading down today following the Q4 report and conference call last night, most likely because there was nothing major revealed during the call (nothing huge was expected). That said, there were a few incremental positives and the story remains on track.
Intapp (INTA) is down about 10% today (downside move wipes out January gain and puts stock at support near 40) after reporting Q2 fiscal 2024 results. I don’t love the reaction but think this will prove to be “noise” and that INTA remains a supremely compelling stock to own.
Docebo (DCBO) Tender Offer Thoughts
Braze (BRZE) and Liquidity Services (LQDT) Report
Sell Last Quarter Position Repligen (RGEN)
Duolingo (DUOL) Moves to Hold