Issues
Well, March in the markets certainly came in like a lion, didn’t it? And it looks like it may end the month the same way. Until we make progress in defeating the coronavirus, we expect continued volatility in the markets, and we recommend that you remain defensive.
That doesn’t mean Sell everything in your portfolio. Remember, you don’t have real losses until you sell your stocks. But it does mean if you are holding on to some stocks that weren’t doing well before the coronavirus outbreak, it might be a good idea to think about unloading them. But being defensive also means being judicious when buying. For the near future, I’m going to include this message in all my writings, as an alert that, certainly, you may buy these recommendations, but for most of us, they will provide entries into a ‘watch’ list that can be acted upon as the volatility disperses. Or you may find that you might want to nibble just a bit at some of them. That’s up to you, but please know that I’m here to help you with your investing decisions, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to me.
In the meantime, I—and our contributors—are very busy trying to find some great recommendations that will help your portfolio recover, once normalcy returns to the markets.
That doesn’t mean Sell everything in your portfolio. Remember, you don’t have real losses until you sell your stocks. But it does mean if you are holding on to some stocks that weren’t doing well before the coronavirus outbreak, it might be a good idea to think about unloading them. But being defensive also means being judicious when buying. For the near future, I’m going to include this message in all my writings, as an alert that, certainly, you may buy these recommendations, but for most of us, they will provide entries into a ‘watch’ list that can be acted upon as the volatility disperses. Or you may find that you might want to nibble just a bit at some of them. That’s up to you, but please know that I’m here to help you with your investing decisions, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to me.
In the meantime, I—and our contributors—are very busy trying to find some great recommendations that will help your portfolio recover, once normalcy returns to the markets.
As the bear market continues and stocks swing wildly we have some sage advice regarding what to expect over the coming weeks. The first part of this months Issue is all about understanding the environment. We’ll get into stock talk tomorrow.
There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty when it comes to all earnings forecasts for 2020, and it’s pretty much a given that this stock itself will miss initial forecasts in Q1. But the company looks poised to be one of the blue-chips best positioned to rebound whenever the virus storm passes.
Current Market OutlookFirst and foremost, with the virus now affecting most everyone, all of us here at Cabot are hoping you stay safe (and if you’re home with your kids, sane!). As for the market, there’s not much to say except the obvious: We remain in a very steep selloff, with bounces limited to a couple of hours, though we’re seeing such crazy extremes (price and sentiment) that a near-term low is possible at any time. Our advice really hasn’t changed despite the once-in-a-lifetime action of the past couple of weeks: You should remain cautious, holding plenty of cash and keeping any new buying on the small side. Eventually, there will be huge opportunities, but we need to see the market and potential leading stocks find support before thinking a workable low could be in.
In the meantime, we’re mostly focused on eying stocks that are showing some resilience—if something can hold up in this disaster, it’s definitely worth at least keeping a close eye on. Our Top Pick is Masimo (MASI), which could be a port in the virus storm.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Acceleron Pharma (XLRN) | 75.11 | ||
| Apple (AAPL) | 248.94 | ||
| Bilibili (BILI) | 28.71 | ||
| DocuSign (DOCU) | 107.98 | ||
| Equinix, Inc. (EQIX) | 547.73 | ||
| FTI Consulting (FCN) | 120.09 | ||
| Inphi (IPHI) | 120.16 | ||
| Masimo (MASI) | 159.56 | ||
| Repligen (RGEN) | 91.34 | ||
| TAL Education (TAL) | 50.49 |
Just when you start to think this coronavirus crash will never end—it will. And our goal is to have a portfolio of healthy stocks when that day arrives. In the meantime, our selling has increased our cash position significantly—and there are two more recommended sales today.
As for new buying—there aren’t a lot of healthy stocks to choose from, regardless of whether you’re looking for low-risk or high-risk, but one that stands out is today’s recommendation, which benefits from the booming growth in working-from-home (WFH).
Full details in the issue.
As for new buying—there aren’t a lot of healthy stocks to choose from, regardless of whether you’re looking for low-risk or high-risk, but one that stands out is today’s recommendation, which benefits from the booming growth in working-from-home (WFH).
Full details in the issue.
The market has crashed during the past three weeks, with the major indexes down 25%-plus and many stocks down much more than that. We’re seeing some truly historic oversold extremes, which tell us a bounce could get underway at any time, but we’re also not seeing the market able to bounce from those extremes. The bottom line is the same as it’s been since late February: The sellers remain in control of the market and the vast majority of stocks, so we’re holding plenty of cash and paring back as need be.
Bigger picture, the market (and the country) will get through this pandemic in time, so it’s important not to lose your cool. There will be big money to be made down the road, and we’re on the hunt for stocks showing some minor relative strength and studying up on some new stories (a couple of which we highlight in the issue). But the goal is to get to the next uptrend in one piece--right now, you should respect the action and remain defensive.
Bigger picture, the market (and the country) will get through this pandemic in time, so it’s important not to lose your cool. There will be big money to be made down the road, and we’re on the hunt for stocks showing some minor relative strength and studying up on some new stories (a couple of which we highlight in the issue). But the goal is to get to the next uptrend in one piece--right now, you should respect the action and remain defensive.
The coronavirus is sending the market into a tailspin. It took a thriving bull market from all-time highs to the cusp of a bear market in a matter of weeks.
It is likely that this market will not significantly recover until there is more clarity on the extent of the economic disruptions it is causing and how long they will last. That seems unlikely for several weeks at least. In the meantime, the market is vulnerable to constant headline risks.
It is likely that the market has not found a bottom.
That said, this too shall pass. The coronavirus is a black swan event that is singularly responsible for the market crash. When the panic and emergency subsides, and it will, the market will likely recover and make up for lost time.
In this issue I discuss the ramifications and measures to protect your investments. As well, I identify rare securities that are timely opportunities while the market is down. These stocks have limited downside if the market continues to fall and huge upside leverage when it recovers.
It is likely that this market will not significantly recover until there is more clarity on the extent of the economic disruptions it is causing and how long they will last. That seems unlikely for several weeks at least. In the meantime, the market is vulnerable to constant headline risks.
It is likely that the market has not found a bottom.
That said, this too shall pass. The coronavirus is a black swan event that is singularly responsible for the market crash. When the panic and emergency subsides, and it will, the market will likely recover and make up for lost time.
In this issue I discuss the ramifications and measures to protect your investments. As well, I identify rare securities that are timely opportunities while the market is down. These stocks have limited downside if the market continues to fall and huge upside leverage when it recovers.
Amazon and others have a lock on the market for large-scale e-commerce, but this stock leads a different niche, as it’s the go-to place for buyers (46 million of them at year-end, up 16% from a year ago) and sellers (2.7 million, up 20%) of homemade, handcrafted goods.
This morning’s market crash will go down in history as a big one—biggest by point drop and one of the biggest by percentage drop. But this is no time to panic. Instead, it’s time to recognize that the market is increasingly offering its wares at bargain prices, and all you need to do is have cash on hand when the climate improves.
For our portfolio, that means selling one more stock today, Endava (DAVA).
In the meantime, Cabot analysts continue to find stocks that are attractive for one reason or another and today’s featured stock is one of them—a leading chipmaker with great prospects as the world goes increasingly online and digital.
Full details in the issue.
For our portfolio, that means selling one more stock today, Endava (DAVA).
In the meantime, Cabot analysts continue to find stocks that are attractive for one reason or another and today’s featured stock is one of them—a leading chipmaker with great prospects as the world goes increasingly online and digital.
Full details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookAfter two weeks of dreadful action, the perfect storm crashed down on Wall Street this morning, with imploding oil prices and more virus/economic fears causing a panic, though the damage was limited after the open. Short-term, today brought many truly extreme readings (more than 2,800 stocks hit new lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq combined!), so short-term, some sort of bounce or relief rally is possible (even probable). That said, (a) the nature of this decline has been breaking some rules, so there are no sure things, and (b) our focus remains on the intermediate-term, where the trends of just about everything are pointed down. Thus, while we’re keeping our eyes open, we’re focusing mostly on capital preservation and hunting for the potential big winners for the next uptrend.
This week’s list is a great place to start, whether you’re building a watch list or looking to nibble. Our Top Pick is Vipshop (VIPS), which is one of many Chinese stocks that is acting very well.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| eHealth (EHTH) | 122.74 | ||
| Etsy (ETSY) | 112.97 | ||
| Everbridge (EVBG) | 107.90 | ||
| GSX Techedu (GSX) | 97.59 | ||
| iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) | 51.15 | ||
| Newmont Mining (NEM) | 57.31 | ||
| Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC) | 127.95 | ||
| Tradeweb Markets (TW) | 51.44 | ||
| Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) | 14.25 | ||
| ZTO Express (ZTO) | 28.84 |
Updates
It’s been a good five months for small cap investors after a rough end to 2015 and an extremely tough start to 2016. But since mid-February, the asset class, along with the broader market, has rallied hard. A healthy pullback in the S&P 600 Small Cap Index in early May set the stage for a burst through resistance, and we’re now sitting just 2.7% below the 52-week high.
Seven Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news.
The Emerging Markets Timer has turned positive, and we did some buying in a Special Hotline on Tuesday. We will wait to see how the portfolio reacts before we put our remaining 20% cash to work. We’re shifting CTRP to a Hold rating ahead of next week’s earnings.
I recommend you take rate hike expectations and macro-economic predictions with a grain of salt (they’re fickle things), focus on stocks that are working well, and keep your goals and risk tolerance in mind.
Nine Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news.
The market continues to act well following last week’s whipsaw buy signal. There are still obvious resistance levels for the major indexes to deal with, but all three of our market timing indicators are bullish and more stocks are acting well. We’ll stand pat tonight with our eight stocks and 20% cash position in the Model Portfolio, though further strength (especially among individual stocks) would prompt us to put our remaining cash to work.
Cabot’s market timing indicators show that the intermediate- and longer-term trends of the market are both up, so you can continue to put money to work judiciously. We have one ratings change today—PGX to Hold—but most of our holdings were very quiet over the past week.
For now, based on S&P trends, economic growth and the proliferation of easily identifiable undervalued growth stocks, I remain bullish on U.S. stock markets. I’m raising the rating on Big Lots (BIG) to Strong Buy, raising the rating on FedEx (FDX) to Buy, and lowering the ratings on Cardinal Health (CAH) and Intuit (INTU) to Hold.
Small caps made a heck of a move over the past week to close just below 700 on the S&P 600. That 4.3% move was led by growth (up 4.6%). Sector wise, tech led the charge with a 6.2% rally.
Continue to hold your best stocks, but also hold some cash until our market timing turns positive. This week’s action has been encouraging, but with our Emerging Markets Timer still negative, we have to wait a bit longer before putting cash to work. Tonight, we’re selling our remaining half position in Volaris (VLRS), leaving us with about 35% cash in the portfolio.
There’s a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve potentially increasing the Fed funds rate in June or July. Such a move would be positive for most financial stocks because they’d earn increased fees on their customers’ deposits, thereby boosting EPS. There are two financial stocks that are affected by rising interest rates in the Cabot Undervalued Stocks portfolios: E*Trade (ETFC) and Federated Investors (FII)
Alerts
Our other recommendations are selling previous ideas, with some profit-taking.
Shares of our first idea today jumped overnight on news that the company received good results on a drug for central nervous system disorders. You might want to watch for a bit of a pullback before buying.
Blackstone Group, an alternative asset manager, held an Investor Day on September 21 for the first time in four years.
This insurance company beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.25 last quarter.
This medical device company beat analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.18 last quarter.
The Marijuana Index is trending upwards, as it has been since mid-August, but is still short of exceeding its January high, and thus the advance is likely to continue.
This party retailer just announced it would acquire a master franchise group representing 21 franchise stores in the Minnesota, North Dakota and Texas markets.
In the past 30 days, 10 analysts have increased the earnings estimates for this consumer company.
In the last 30 days, six analysts have raised their 2019 EPS forecasts and nine have increased their 2020 forecasts for this beauty company.
This pharma company just announced its intention to acquire Biscayne Neurotherapeutics, a privately-held company developing a novel treatment for epilepsy.
Analysts expect this biotech company to grow at an annual rate of 23.9% over the next five years.
This ETF goal is to provide investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil SubindexSM.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.