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Current Market Outlook


After last Monday’s plunge, the initial rebound was very encouraging, and the fact that the major indexes are still doing their best to hang in there is a plus. But, while many individual stocks are in decent shape, the wild rotation that has been a hallmark of 2021 has returned, with money racing into cyclical areas and out of growth stocks the past couple of days. We’re still sticking with a stock-by-stock approach, and most names, despite their wobbles, remain in fine shape, simply pulling in after big runs; others, however, look worse and should be pared back or sold. To be fair, such action isn’t totally surprising—big breaks like last Monday’s usually have some reverberations, so we wouldn’t say the action is negative as much as it’s a sign we’re still in the tricky, choppy environment that has existed for some time. We’re going to leave the Market Monitor at a level 5 and see how things play out in the days ahead.

The good news is that this week’s list is full of names that have enjoyed outsized accumulation of late. Our Top Pick is Devon Energy (DVN), which looks like a leader of a fresh breakout in energy stocks (and cyclical stocks more broadly). We suggest aiming for dips as these names usually pull in after powerful rallies.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Apache (APA)	23	22-23.5	19.5-20
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (BHVN)	133	130-134	116-119
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS)	109	102-106	93-95
Cimarex Energy (XEC)	88	82-85	72.5-74.5
Devon Energy (DVN)	35	32-34	28.5-29.5
DoorDash (DASH)	217	206-212	185-189
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. (SEAS)	58	56.5-58.5	51.5-52.5
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	84	82-85	73-75
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	80	78-81	69-71
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	674	655-675	600-610

Current Market Outlook


After one of the wildest weeks in months, you’ve probably seen countless articles talking about the action and the reasons for it. To us, though, it’s what happens during the next few trading sessions that will count most—right now, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is up, though it’s more of a mixed bag for leading stocks (both growth and cyclical). In our view, there’s been enough iffy action to warrant some action; we’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 6 in today’s issue and have a fair number of sells. But what comes next will count most, with a strong, broad rebound (including some positive earnings reactions) likely boding well, while an inability to bounce/further selling possibly putting a nail in the coffin of the post-November advance. For now, we’re paring back and tightening stops but still giving most of our winners a chance to hold support and resume their advances.

This week’s list has a surprising number of solid charts given the recent turmoil, though we generally still favor buying on dips or some tightening action. Our Top Pick is PagerDuty (PD), which is refusing to budge.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)	114	108.5-111.5	98-99.5
Aphria Inc. (APHA)	13	11.5-12.5	10-10.5
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)	166	157-163	140-143
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	53	50.5-53	45.5-47
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	16	15-16	12.8-13.3
The Michaels Companies (MIK)	15	14.5-15.2	12.8-13.2
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)	269	225-245	185-200
PagerDuty (PD)	51	47-50	41-42.5
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	104	97-104	85-88
Redfin (RDFN)	75	72-76	64-66

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the December 2021 issue.

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Current Market Outlook


Last week brought another small improvement in the market, both for the major indexes (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their fifth straight up week and are holding above some key longer-term moving averages) and for some leading stocks—more growth stocks with top-notch fundamentals have reacted well to earnings, offering some much-needed leadership for this rally. Of course, the flip side is also true, as a bunch of stocks have been crushed on earnings, and the broad market’s action is just decent. Overall, we’re a bit more constructive than we have been, so we’ll bump the Market Monitor up a notch, but it remains vital to be selective—buy what’s working, keep losses small and avoid or sell anything that breaks down.


This week’s list has an encouraging batch of growth stocks with good stories and numbers (not as many defensive-type stocks this week). Our Top Pick is LinkedIn (LNKD), a dynamic big-cap growth stock that’s come back to life after its quarterly report blew away expectations.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ultimate Software (ULTI)	0.00	200-205	185-186
Lending Tree (TREE)	411.51	108-116	95-97
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)	0.00	96-99	87-88
Proofpoint (PFPT)	113.79	67-70	60-61
The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN)	0.00	1380-1440	1300-1310
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	234-242	214-216
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE)	0.00	245-255	230-235
Expedia Group (EXPE)	0.00	130-133	119-120
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP)	34.94	91-95	83-85
Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)	0.00	19-20	17-17.5

It’s been a constructive week for the market, and for our portfolio. After bouncing off its 200-day moving average two weeks ago, the S&P 500 turned positive for the year yesterday, its first return to the black in four weeks.

Yesterday’s strong market triggered a technical indicator, a follow-through signal that tells us buyers are lurking. Of course, today’s big decline so far isn’t good to see, but nevertheless, this and other measures (awful sentiment, etc.) tell us there should be support on weakness.

Almost everywhere in the mainstream media and across most Wall Street research firms, there is a common implication that a recession will bring a bear market for stocks.