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  • Peter Brimelow writes in his 1/24/08 column, “A top-performing letter that presciently went bearish in November is Cabot Market Letter...”
  • MarketWatch’s Peter Brimelow quotes Paul Goodwin, editor of top performing Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, as urging caution.
  • On Voice America internet talk radio, Cabot Editor Paul Goodwin reports on investing oportunities he sees in China. 5/1/08
  • Cabot Top Ten Report Outperforms Nasdaq by more than 40%.
  • Rate hikes typically come when the market is trending up, and investors tend to expect these trends to continue—so they do, for a while. So whether the Fed hikes rates this month, next month or months later, don’t be afraid. Remember that the first rate hike, on average, comes in an environment that is beneficial to investors, and thus you should make the most of it.
  • Last week, we started our multi-part discussion on position sizes, and looked at the benefits and weaknesses of an equal-weighted approach. Let’s look at perhaps the most common weighting used by fund managers: relative weighting.
  • It’s not news that the stock market has been sloppy lately. After the steady march upward to a doubling of the S&P 500 from the early 2020 low, and a 33% increase from year-end 2019 before the pandemic, one can hardly be disappointed in the market’s performance.
  • Crista has updates on several portfolio stocks.
  • Please expect volatility, and that definitely includes periodic large market pullbacks. I’m not just saying that as a standard disclaimer. There’s a certain amount of irrational exuberance that’s taking place now.
  • This is a Bulletin for experienced stock investors who like to trade stocks or options over the short-term: a few days or weeks.
  • In the Boston area, we’ve had nearly 8 inches of rain so far this month. This 0.7 inches-per-day average compares to the 0.6 inches-per-day average for a monsoon rainforest, the type found in the tropics along the equator. Sounds a lot like the dampened mood of the stock market. Compared to the crisp 19% return for the average stock in the first half of the year, the 1% return so far this month seems soggy. Part of the reason is that there are too many mixed macro signals – rising inflation but falling bond yields, murkiness over whether the Biden administration’s large spending proposals will be passed, surging Covid cases despite what appeared to be the end of the pandemic, incredibly strong economic and profit growth which may be rolling over. Investors also are stuck in the mud of pre-earnings season, wondering whether high expectations will be exceeded or merely matched and worried that companies missing their estimates will be harshly punished.
  • Two portfolio stocks report first quarter results.
  • Some time ago, there was a television show with the above title that pulled viewers back into the 1970s. It used that earlier era to create a somewhat unique vibe that inadvertently highlighted how much has changed in our world over the decades.
  • There are several portfolio changes today
  • Last week, we wrote about how the damp Boston-area weather matched the soggy stock market. Pressing our literary luck today, the market is following another New England weather meme: “if you don’t like the weather, wait a few minutes.”
  • Crista has rating changes for three portfolio stocks and reports an earnings miss for a fourth.
  • After a stunningly strong market so far this year, with the S&P 500 producing a 20% total return through Monday, the slow grind-down of most stocks since early September has seemed interminable. The 1,100 largest stocks in our 3,000-stock database have declined only 2% in the past two weeks, but the steady flow of higher inflation news, a growing likelihood of interest rate increases, a never-ending pandemic, the prospect of higher taxes of all kinds and memories of the tragic events of 9/11 makes us feel like we’re stuck inside on a cold, rainy day watching an awful four-hour movie.