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The market is finally enjoying a rally today, with the major indexes up after a few positive earnings reports. As of 2:45 ET, the Dow was up 644 points and the Nasdaq was rallying 400 points.

As we march toward a well-deserved weekend, the market is looking to hold support (S&P 500 holding up so far while Nasdaq has cracked a little). There’s no sugarcoating it – this has been a horrific week. But if there is a glass half full perspective it’s that when everybody is bearish it just might be time to start buying.

It’s the heart of earnings season. More than a third of all S&P 500 companies report this week. Can the earnings barrage save this market?

The market could sure use some help. It just got hit with more bad news when it was already teetering. The market was see-sawing between generally positive earnings in a still strong economy and the specter of an aggressive Fed seriously slowing the economy over the rest of the year. Then it got hit with news of Covid spreading in China and likely slower growth in that country and globally.

The market got off to a decent start to the week, but things have deteriorated for many names over the last two days. There are a few stocks that I had anticipated selling relatively soon, hopefully into some strength.

While things can turn up quickly, especially during earnings season, the market’s downturn over the last two days suggests we should drop a couple of names today.

The bleeding out among growth stocks is continuing today thanks in part to Netflix’s (NFLX) implosion, with the Nasdaq and most growth funds under pressure.

What a difference a few days can make. A little over a week ago the market looked like it was about to roll over and die. But since the close on March 14 the S&P 500 has soared more than 8% and the Nasdaq has spiked more than 12%. Will the magnificence last?

I doubt it.

It’s Fed decision day. The Central Bank is going to raise rates. And the market loves it.

All three market indexes are up big for the second day in a row. Despite the fact that the Fed will today announce the first rate hike since 2018, it’s expected and the market isn’t worried. As a matter of fact, investors sense we will navigate this minefield with no additional cause for concern.

Clif Droke, Chief Analyst for Cabot’s SX Gold & Metals Advisor, advised me that he had traded out of our latest recommendation, the iPath Series B Bloomberg Tin Subindex Total Return ETN (JJT).

It’s that time of the month. I mean when all eyes are on the Fed, of course. But this time investors have one eye on the Fed and the other eye on Russia.

At the same time, a new narrative is emerging: slowing economic growth. The last several trading days are reflecting investor angst that inflation, the Russian war, and a tightening Fed will slow growth both domestically and internationally. That’s new.

For the major indexes, it hasn’t been a bad week—the big-cap indexes are down a bit, while some of the broader indexes are up a tad—but the story of the week has been under the surface, where growth stocks were taken apart (ARKK down 9% through Thursday) while even some leading areas (XME down 6.5%) also took hits.

Our comments on recommended companies that reported earnings, news on several companies and some brief thoughts about the effects of the war in Ukraine on investments.

Today’s inflation data (CPI) wasn’t expected to be great but was even a little worse than anticipated as consumer prices rose 8.6%. That’s up from 8.5% in March and 8.3% in April. One can slice and dice the data a lot of ways but if you want to flag the main issues, they are probably energy and food prices.

The mid-May to early-June period saw the market take a few baby steps, which we wrote about here and in the Monday issues—it had put itself in position to do some good things in the intermediate term, but we had to see some honest-to-goodness strength and upside follow-through.

Things are looking better. The market stopped going down. Now it’s going sideways. That’s better.

Stocks have moved above the bear market precipice as investors have apparently priced in the fact that inflation will be persistent and the Fed will have to raise rates aggressively this year. That’s a major bummer to factor in. The market appears to have absorbed that shock, at least for now.

The major indexes are down modestly today after the European Central Bank laid out a plan to tighten policy. As of 215 pm, the Dow was down 157 points and the Nasdaq was off 129 points.

It’s happened. The market’s flirtation with the bear market precipice is over. It’s now a full-blown tawdry affair. The S&P 500 officially crossed into a bear market at Monday’s close (down 20% or more from the high on a closing basis).

That means the bull market that began in March of 2020 has ended after 2 years and 3 months. The culprit is inflation, and the Fed’s likely reaction to it. It had been hoped that inflation was peaking and would recede all by itself without the Fed having to be as aggressive as feared. But those hopes were dashed when May inflation came in at a worse-than-expected 8.6%, the highest yet and the worst in more than forty years.

As we head into the weekend, it’s shaping up to be a red week—just about all of the major indexes are down 2% or so coming into Friday, with growth funds down a touch less.