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The major indexes all closed last week near their highs, which is one big factor keeping the top-down evidence very bullish; nothing has changed with our big picture positive thoughts. That said, right now, we don’t think the situation is as strong as the indexes suggest—just looking at a variety of names, it’s clear many are consolidating even as the S&P and Nasdaq tested new high ground late last week. Again, we’re not saying that’s a big bugaboo, but right now, we continue to think being more discerning when looking for entry points makes sense, as does pruning some laggards if you have them. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with a decent amount of cyclical exposure but also some true blue growth names as well. Our Top Pick is helping to lead a new group move in metal stocks in general (and copper in particular).

Many of the underlying trends in cannabis continue to be favorable even if this is not reflected in the stock prices, which are down sharply this month.

States continue to advance legalization of recreational use. Lawmakers remind us that federal regulatory reform in banking remains on the table, and will get taken up by key Congressional committees this year. Europe should begin to advance recreational use legalization within the next several weeks, starting with Germany. Cannabis sector insiders are stepping up to buy stock. Industry consulting firms continue to affirm robust sales growth projections of 13% a year through 2027. There are tentative signs that price compression is neutralizing.

The market and many stocks staged a nice bounce last week, and despite many ups and downs and news-driven moves, they’ve all stopped going down for the past three to four weeks—and that means a few good days could actually produce an intermediate-term green light. Still, as has been the case for weeks, we need to see it before taking any big action: Until proven otherwise, the onus remains on the buyers to show up for more than a day or two, which means keeping plenty of cash on the sideline. As has been the case for a while, our Market Monitor remains at a level 3, though we’ll let you know if that changes going forward.


This week’s list is heavier on commodities than it has been in a while, though there are a few nascent earnings winners in there, too. Our Top Pick fills both bills, as shares are picking up steam after their Q3 report following a 13 month period of no progress.

It was a down-and-up week for the market, with a round of selling hitting the major indexes and many stocks as they approached their December highs, but then a solid-looking snapback on Friday and today. Moreover, most of the nascent positives that we’ve written about are still in place, with the broad market in solid shape and the 2-to-1 Blastoff Indicator still in effect; now we want to see the intermediate-term trend kick into gear and some breakouts occur. We’re encouraged, though we still think going slow makes sense. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.


This week’s list is again heavy on the cyclical- and turnaround-type names, and our Top Pick is a commodity name that’s near the top of an eight-month structure.

There were a lot of great stocks in 2017. But the 10 top stocks of 2017 all posted gains of at least 300%. Here’s who made the list.

There remain a few hundred leading stocks that are in great shape – they’ve reacted well to earnings, are in powerful sectors and find buying support just a couple of weeks after beginning normal corrections. However, there are also plenty of stocks that are languishing, or have been taken out and shot during earnings season, leaving investors scratching their heads. The bottom line is that stock selection is very important in this environment, as the leaders are putting on outstanding displays … but there are still plenty of potholes. Thus, holding a little cash as earnings season continues isn’t a bad idea; this week’s Top Ten, for instance, contains a couple of big earnings winners that look ripe for buying. Our favorite of the week is Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ), a pure “Bull Market stock” that’s going to benefit from both the strong equity markets and consolidation in the industry. Look to buy on a pullback of a couple of points.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
CNX (CNX)	0.00	54-58	-
CYBS (CYBS)	0.00	15 1/4 - 16	-
DECK (DECK)	0.00	125-135	-
DV (DV)	0.00	50-55	-
IBN (IBN)	0.00	60-64	-
NDAQ (NDAQ)	0.00	40-45	-
NUVA (NUVA)	0.00	37-42	-
SGR (SGR)	0.00	70-74	-
STLD (STLD)	0.00	49-53	-
STP (STP)	0.00	52-56	-

The sharp market break of 2008 has made it clear that the bears are in control, which means you should remain in a highly defensive position. But money has to flow somewhere, and it appears that, for the moment, pharmaceutical and metal stocks are in favor. This week’s Top Ten sports three pharmaceutical stocks, two other medical names and two precious metal stocks – and most of them have good-looking chart patterns. Just be aware that even strong stocks can get hit in bearish environments, so your emphasis should be on building your watch list, holding cash, and making just token new buys until the storm passes. Our favorite pick this week is Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI), a steady company whose bottom line is set to accelerate this year. The stock just broke free from a long consolidation after a bullish outlook, which should offer support on any retreat.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AUXL (AUXL)	0.00	28-31	-
BMRN (BMRN)	0.00	34-37	-
CPHD (CPHD)	0.00	26-30	-
DV (DV)	0.00	53-59	-
GOLD (GOLD)	0.00	38-41	-
LKQX (LKQX)	0.00	19-21	-
MATK (MATK)	0.00	29 1/2 - 31	-
MLNM (MLNM)	0.00	15-16	-
PAAS (PAAS)	0.00	33-36	-
PPDI (PPDI)	0.00	39-44	-

We all prefer rising markets to declining markets, but there is a silver lining to a weak tape – when most stocks are heading south, it becomes easy to spot abnormal strength. That’s what OptiMo, our proprietary stock screening system, has been doing in recent weeks; if big investors aren’t selling shares in this market, they’re likely to buy with abandon during the next bull move. Of course, with the bears in control of most stocks, you should stick with a defensive stance for now – no use investing a ton of money when the odds are against you. But nibbling on a couple of leaders and readying your watch list should pay off when the bulls return. This week’s Top Ten contains another batch of commodity, solar and emerging market stocks. Our favorite of the week is ICICI Bank (IBN), an Indian bank that’s directly leveraged to that country’s tremendous growth. The stock broke out last week, and Indian stocks are acting well.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ABX (ABX)	0.00	48-53	-
ASTI (ASTI)	0.00	17-23	-
CF (CF)	0.00	100-110	-
CHU (CHU)	0.00	20-23	-
HOLX (HOLX)	0.00	66 - 68 1/2	-
IBN (IBN)	0.00	66-72	-
ILMN (ILMN)	0.00	64-72	-
JASO (JASO)	0.00	65-70	-
KGC (KGC)	0.00	21-24	-
SWN (SWN)	0.00	56-58	-

We’ve been writing that the recent straight-up move in leading stocks, combined with signs of speculation in early October, all happening right in front on earnings season, was a recipe for lower prices in the short-term. And voilà! Stocks got hit hard last week and early this morning, as the sellers gained traction. At this point, the major market trends are up, so we believe this correction will eventually lead to higher prices … but we’d still be a bit cautious in the short-term, as selling pressures usually don’t disappear after just one week. This week’s Top Ten contains a few earnings winners from last week (always good candidates for further upside), as well as a few new names. Our favorite of the week is New Oriental Education (EDU), a Chinese firm that gapped up on strong earnings last week, but has pulled back with the market in recent days. It’s a bit thinly traded, and thus jumpier, but we think buying a little here will work out.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ANR (ANR)	0.00	24-26	-
AUO (AUO)	0.00	18 1/2 - 20	-
BIDU (BIDU)	0.00	310-320	-
EDU (EDU)	0.00	65-75	-
ISRG (ISRG)	0.00	260-272	-
LIFC (LIFC)	0.00	38-41	-
LULU (LULU)	0.00	45-55	-
MTL (MTL)	0.00	60-66	-
SA (SA)	0.00	32-36	-
SPWR (SPWR)	0.00	91-96	-

Sometimes, the market’s outlook is clear – either the buyers are clearly in control, and the leading stocks are surging on huge volume … or the sellers are driving things lower, as everyone’s favorite stocks get taken out and shot. Today, however, we’re somewhere in the middle. Many leaders are hanging in there, with some showing great volume trends, but a few are breaking down, and the broad stock market is in horrible shape. Thus, while it’s not a full-fledged bear market, the odds aren’t heavily in favor of the bulls, either. Your best strategy is to hold some cash on the sideline, and restrict your new buying to only the best stocks at logical, sound entry points. Our favorite of this week is Massey Energy (MEE), a big, liquid stock from the suddenly powerful coal (yes, coal!) sector. We advise buying on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
OXPS (OXPS)	0.00	29-32	-
WFR (WFR)	0.00	73-83	-
ARD (ARD)	0.00	36-38	-
BEAV (BEAV)	0.00	48-50	-
CYBS (CYBS)	0.00	15-16	-
JASO (JASO)	0.00	58-66	-
MEE (MEE)	0.00	33-36	-
MELI (MELI)	0.00	50-60	-
NDAQ (NDAQ)	0.00	43-48	-
OSIP (OSIP)	0.00	42-47	-

With the market in a defined downtrend, the odds are against the bulls; buying a bunch of stocks, even if they have tremendous Top Ten-type relative strength, will usually cost you money. Thus, you should be focusing on building your watch list of resilient stocks with top-notch growth stories; doing that today will prepare you to pounce once the market gives us a green light. This week’s (and last issue’s) Top Ten is a great place to begin building – you’ll find a wide array of stocks here, from different industries with different prospects. Many are familiar names, which we view as a good thing; big investors are still sitting tight with many leaders, giving them a shot at racing ahead once the bulls re-take control. Our favorite of the week is Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), partly due to its chart (some recent high-volume buying suggests good support on any weakness) and partly due to the ongoing boom in oil and gas infrastructure.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AG (AG)	0.00	54-57	-
BIDZ (BIDZ)	0.00	14-17	-
BUCY (BUCY)	0.00	80-84	-
CBI (CBI)	0.00	48-52	-
CNX (CNX)	0.00	52-55	-
FLS (FLS)	0.00	86-93	-
FSLR (FSLR)	0.00	190-210	-
MA (MA)	0.00	175-185	-
STP (STP)	0.00	60-65	-
UTHR (UTHR)	0.00	90-100	-

Investors came back from the holidays in a selling mood last week, driving the indexes and leading stocks sharply lower. And while everyone hopes that this is the final push lower before the bulls truly re-take control, the fact is nobody knows what the future holds. What we do know is that the sellers are punishing most stocks, and the narrow list of leaders that were holding up are now going along for the ride. Conclusion: You should be playing defense, mostly sitting on the sideline and waiting for the storm to pass. As for new buying, a small buy or two is still OK, especially in areas that are actually pushing ahead during this down market. This week’s Top Ten, for instance, features many commodity-related names to examine. Our favorite is Barrick Gold (ABX), which spiked to new peaks last week on its biggest volume in years, as institutions anticipate more good times for gold prices as the Fed cuts rates and the U.S. dollar sinks. It’s worth a nibble here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ABX (ABX)	0.00	45-49	-
ADM (ADM)	0.00	41-46	-
ATW (ATW)	0.00	90-100	-
BMRN (BMRN)	0.00	33-36	-
CMED (CMED)	0.00	43-48	-
CTCM (CTCM)	0.00	26-30	-
FCN (FCN)	0.00	57-60	-
MON (MON)	0.00	110-115	-
MTL (MTL)	0.00	85-95	-
UTHR (UTHR)	0.00	100-105	-

The market’s action of two weeks ago gave evidence that the bulls were taking control…but last week’s volatility tells us the bears still have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. All told, this remains a tough market, so your best move is to keep some of your powder dry while focusing on specific stocks and sectors that are in their own, private bull markets. That means focusing on commodities, especially oil, as well as a few emerging growth-oriented leaders. Just remember that earnings season is beginning, so you should have a game plan in place on how you want to handle your stocks before they report. This week’s Top Ten is similar in structure to many of the past few weeks, but contains a couple of new names to consider. Our favorite of the week is Mechel (MTL), a company that has its hands in all the right cookie jars—steel, iron ore and coal. The stock powered ahead on big volume last week, and we think you can take a position now.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
MTL (MTL)	0.00	130-150	-
NFLX (NFLX)	0.00	34-37	-
POT (POT)	0.00	165-175	-
XCO (XCO)	0.00	18-21	-
APA (APA)	0.00	123-129	-
CLR (CLR)	0.00	34-37	-
CSIQ (CSIQ)	0.00	22-25	-
FDG (FDG)	0.00	57-60	-
KEX (KEX)	0.00	53-56	-
MTH (MTH)	0.00	19-21	-

The past couple of weeks have brought a distinct change in the market’s behavior. While the major indexes continue their mild advance, beneath the surface, we’re seeing more and more stocks acting in a healthy manner, including plenty that have gapped up on earnings. That tells us that big investors aren’t waiting patiently to build positions—they’re buying with both hands, driving the market’s leading stocks higher. There will be bumps in the road, of course, but you should be putting money to work in the market’s leading stocks at prudent buy points. This week’s Top Ten contains something for everyone—some commodity, some growth, some big, and some small. Our favorite of the week is Gafisa (GFA), a fast-growing Brazilian homebuilder that shot out of a nice, tight pattern last week. Earnings are due out tonight, but we think you can buy some around here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
CNQR (CNQR)	0.00	36-38	-
FEED (FEED)	0.00	17-20	-
FST (FST)	0.00	56-60	-
GFA (GFA)	0.00	42-46	-
KSU (KSU)	0.00	42-46	-
MA (MA)	0.00	260-280	-
MMR (MMR)	0.00	24-27	-
PWRD (PWRD)	0.00	29-32	-
WLT (WLT)	0.00	73-83	-
X (X)	0.00	155-165	-

The sellers have dug in their heels during the past two weeks, and with the major indexes near their late-January lows, our Market Monitor above has moved back into bear territory. Growth stocks are still a mess, as they have been for weeks, and even some commodity stocks are now taking it on the chin. Still, the overall inflation theme is intact, and we believe putting a little money to work in the leading sectors (gold, oil, natural gas, coal) during this pullback could work out well. Just be sure not to go overboard; keep plenty of cash on the sideline until a real bull market begins, and keep commitments relatively small. This week’s Top Ten contains some familiar names, but also a couple of newer ones that have good potential. Our favorite of the week is Arch Coal (ACI), a well-positioned coal firm that’s pulled back to its 50-day line in recent days. Usually, the first 50-day test after a powerful breakout (like coal stocks have experienced) is successful, so you could buy a little right around here, and keep a stop in the low 40s.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ACI (ACI)	0.00	44-47	-
APA (APA)	0.00	112-120	-
AUY (AUY)	0.00	16-18	-
BUCY (BUCY)	0.00	95-102	-
EAC (EAC)	0.00	36-38	-
LKQX (LKQX)	0.00	21 1/2 - 23	-
MMR (MMR)	0.00	15 1/2 - 17	-
PGI (PGI)	0.00	14 - 15 1/2	-
SLW (SLW)	0.00	15-17	-
WMS (WMS)	0.00	35-39	-

The market is no longer as healthy as it was, but the bull market is not dead, either, just going through a change of character—a change that helps some of our stocks and hurts others. That’s investing!

As for this week’s stock, it’s a name you may not have heard of yet—it’s young—but lots of Chinese have, as it serves the mass market.

And in the portfolio, there are two changes—one simple sell and one “retirement” of a stock that has achieved its short-term potential but that might still be kept around for the long term.

Details in the issue.

As we head into December, there are several major factors at work on the market, and most of them are negative: interest rates are rising, global trade is at risk of slowing, and the major trend of the market is now down. But not all factors are bleak. On the positive side, the deep correction has made stocks cheaper, and as stocks have fallen, investors have become more fearful, which eventually becomes a good thing.

So while caution is clearly warranted, it’s important not to stick your head in the sand.

The market’s main trends remain up, and thus I remain bullish, while continuing to remind you that a balanced portfolio with attention to risk management is always smart.

Last week’s “surprise” failure by Facebook to meet growth expectations has kicked off a correction in growth stocks that will likely run for a while, while allowing other types of stocks to come to the fore. This is natural. Our job is to follow the leaders, and to discard stocks that are no longer doing what we hired them to do.

Even though there was some crazy action in the market last week the bulls remain in charge and many stocks are breaking out to fresh highs.