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We’re still in the midst of a market correction that began in late January. I consider this correction to be perfectly normal, and unrelated to politics, economics, natural disasters or war. In short, the stock market rose for 15 months without resting, and it was overdue to rest. Sometimes things really are that simple.

This month we review how the capital markets performed in 2020 and provide our outlook for 2021. We look at the broad equity market and trends below the surface, including growth/value, large/small and sector returns. We also briefly discuss the global equity and commodity markets as well as the U.S. fixed income markets. Our outlook starts with a review of how our 2020 outlook turned out, then dives into what we see for 2021 for the S&P 500, touches upon the rising influence of the two “Easts” and our wariness about speculation, and concludes with some timeless perspective about investing.

The issue also reviews the high yield bond market. We follow the high yield bond market as it provides a different perspective on equity markets. Importantly, there is considerable overlap among high yield bond investors, turnaround investors and private equity investors who may acquire undervalued companies.



Each January, we highlight our “Top Five” stocks for the coming year, based on a combination of favorable risk/return and timeliness. For 2021, our Top Five includes Conduent (CNDT), Meredith Publishing (MDP), Newell Brands (NWL), Signet Jewelers (SIG) and Wells Fargo (WFC).



Our feature recommendation is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD). The market views Ironwood as a failed pharmaceutical company but its low share valuation, steady/rising profits and the presence of an effective activist investor make the stock a stand-out value, in our view.



The letter also includes a summary of our recent sales of GameStop (GME) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX), our price target increases for Trinity Industries (TRN), Adient (ADNT), DuPont (DD) and General Motors (GM) as well as the full roster of our current recommendations.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2024 issue.

In this issue, we discuss our Top Five Stocks for 2024. We also dissect and review what happened in the capital markets in 2023 and offer our outlook for the coming year.

This month’s Buy recommendation, Mohawk Industries (MHK), is a major global flooring manufacturer whose shares are deeply out of favor. We discuss three key questions when considering an investment in a cyclical company and describe how Mohawk passes all three with flying colors.

There is a lot of uncertainty out there, which isn’t an entirely new scenario. We’ll continue to try and play it a little safe right now by keeping all stocks previously rated hold at the same rating.

Looking at the bigger picture, nothing has changed with our overall thoughts: The evidence tells us it’s a bull market and that the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact.

Today, I’m writing on a MacBook Pro. This morning I did my morning crossword puzzle on my iPad. All day long, my iPhone is by my side. My home Wi-Fi comes from Apple AirPorts. And some nights, I stream entertainment through my Apple TV. In short, I love Apple products, and I expect to continue using them for many more years. But one of the most important market truisms is this: “The company is not the stock.”

Holding cash is not a successful long-term investment strategy, especially where inflation reduces the value of cash.

I rarely ever delve into the murky, stinky waters of politics, and really, I’m not going to start now. If you’ve listened to the news, you probably know about the good and bad of the $800 billion (and growing) stimulus package that will soon be taken up in the Senate. I’m actually optimistic that the Senate will be able to pass a workable, bi-partisan bill. However, my rant today is based on policies that have been adopted by Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike. I’m talking about the various tax credits currently in the tax code, and the income thresholds that apply to them. Some aspects of the current stimulus bill include these thresholds.

Recently, we held our very first Cabot essay contest and the response was incredible! We received lots of insightful, well-written essays from you, our readers, and after selecting four finalists, we asked you to choose your top pick. The final results were too close to call, resulting in a tie between Essay #1 and Essay #4. Congratulations to the two winners! I’ve re-printed the two winners’ essays below with some comments written by those of you who voted. I hope you enjoy reading them as much as we did. Thanks to everyone who submitted essays and voted for their favorites--you helped make this contest a great success!

Today I want to start off with a word about a certain technical indicator you’ve probably heard a lot about this week. It’s a prediction that gets made every year by Punxsutawney Phil, who sticks his head out of the ground to predict whether or not winter is here to stay. As a child, I believed in the power of the groundhog to forecast the weather. But soon I realized that it would probably be winter here for at least six more weeks. In any event, I’m not putting much stock in old Phil to forecast the seasons or anything else. We don’t do predictions here at Cabot, we watch the market and use our disciplined market timing indicators to stay on the right side of the trends.

It’s been another mostly constructive week as many of our stocks inch higher and the economic picture continues to improve.

For my last issue of 2011, Editor Elyse Andrews interviewed me to get my thoughts on the market.

Last week I ran a quiz here, which was designed to give me a better picture of exactly who you are.

With Thanksgiving and a long holiday weekend coming up, it’s a good time to do a little “self scouting.”

Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter, launched in 2003, uses the teachings of Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, in a system that safely builds long-lasting wealth. Unlike Cabot’s growth publications, the letter doesn’t use market timing, instead relying on a 76-year-old system, followed by investors such as billionaire Warren Buffett, to pick undervalued stocks and hold them as they reach a specified valuation.

Most of the market’s biggest winners get going in a real powerful way four to six weeks (a couple of weeks for a buy signal ... plus another two to four weeks after that) after the market has bottomed. Many times, the investor who rushes to be the first to buy after the market bottom will miss out on the real leaders, instead buying what he thinks are the real leaders. That’s why, in the stock market as in life, patience is a virtue.

While my heart is with growth stocks, there’s no question that many commodity stocks are doing well. My bias against them at this time is that most lack any sort of sales or earnings growth. And my own experience investing in shrinking or money-losing operations, frankly, is not good. I usually lose money when I toil in such fundamentally unsound stocks. However, I’m also a tape-reader, and some of the best price-volume patterns today are found in a few commodity names, so I’m going to give you a few stock ideas, and let you decide what to do with them.

I recently received a question from a reader asking about some of the terms we use when writing about investing. I’ll bet the questioner isn’t the only reader who’s confused about some of our investing terminology. So today I’m going to rundown a list of terms that appear frequently in our writing.

Last Friday, while the Dow was dropping 250 points, I took a look at the new highs list. I found 34 stocks, many of them too illiquid and some too stodgy, but one in particular that interests me. It’s Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (RDY), a major Indian pharmaceutical maker.