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The resilient summer market got a cold slap in the face last week. There was a big recovery on Monday. But the market still looks wobblier than it did a week ago.

One day’s headlines seemed to undo the positive market narrative.

It started off as an ugly week for the market. But things have gotten better. Stocks flirted with the recent low on Monday but held strong and recovered. That’s a good sign. But is it enough?


Big tariff news is on the doorstep. Uncertainty abounds. It is unclear yet how many countries will be included in the reciprocal tariffs scheduled to take effect today and to what extent there will be exceptions. The market may be happier about things by the end of the week. But if it isn’t, stocks might go lower again.

What a difference a week makes. Just a week ago, the S&P was plunging back toward the low. But then the S&P rallied 4.5% and the Nasdaq soared 6.6% in the final four days of last week, erasing most of the index’s April losses.

The market has recovered in a big and fast way over the past week. Are we out of the woods?


What a difference a week makes. Things were frog ugly at the beginning of last week. We were approaching a trade war with the whole world. The S&P 500 came within a whisker of bear market territory (down 20% or more from the high on a closing basis). In fact, it hit the 20% mark down from the high on an intraday basis twice. Then last Wednesday happened.

Current Market Outlook


Last week was the third straight down week for the major indexes. More importantly to us, all remain clearly below their 50-day moving average. That keeps the intermediate-term trend pointed down, which combined with some soggy action from key groups (oils and chip stocks look like death) is a good reason to remain relatively cautious. Of course, not all is bleak—the longer-term evidence is still positive, and most leading stocks are in decent shape (though many did take on water last week). Overall, then, the song remains the same: We advise holding most of your strong, profitable stocks, but also holding a good-sized chunk of cash and being very choosy on the buy side. The onus remains on the bulls to retake control—until then, step lightly.

This week’s list has another strong group of stocks; a nibble here or there is fine, or simply put your favorites on your watch list. Our Top Pick is Array Biopharma (ARRY), which emerged on big volume last week, and it helps that many biotech names are acting resiliently.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	25-26.5	22.5-24
Ascendis Pharma (ASND)	119.09	123-128	112-115
Copart (CPRT)	74.80	69-71	63.5-64.5
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH)	174.52	177-183	162-166
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)	37.44	35-36	31.5-32.5
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	31-32	28.5-29.5
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	116-120	106-108
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	27.5-29.5	24.5-25.5
Viasat (VSAT)	81.22	90-92	83-84.5
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	132-136	121-123

Growth stocks have changed character over the past week, with abnormal action and breakdowns appearing. The good news is that a major top doesn’t appear to be in place; the general market is still hanging in there for now, and the long-term trend of most leaders is still up. But, taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, we’ve pared back a bunch and are actually holding more than half the portfolio in cash. That’s probably too high (we’d like to put some to work in fresher leaders), but we’re content to patiently wait for buyers to support the market.

In tonight’s issue, we review all our stocks, dive into the two main factors to your investment returns and go over many fresher names that could help lead the market’s next upmove.

The market remains in good shape, but growth stocks have come under pressure -- for the first time in months, we’re seeing a good amount of abnormal action. Longer-term, we’re still quite bullish, both on the market and on leading stocks, but given the action (and our solid gains this year), we’ve been paring back, with numerous partial profits and one outright sale, which has us holding a 37% cash position.

In tonight’s issue we write about all our latest thoughts on the market, and how to handle big winners that begin to act iffy. We also write up a handful of names we’re watching should growth stocks stabilize.

The overall evidence continues to lean bullish, but growth stocks are on a wild ride, first selling off in August/early September, then rallying for a few weeks before backing off again in recent days. We remain optimistic, but are still taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, pulling the plug on laggards while aiming to put money to work in potential new leaders. This week, we let go of Wingstop on Monday, leaving us with around one-quarter of the portfolio in cash.

In tonight’s issue, we write more about our thoughts on the market and our stocks, talk about one recent sell we wish we had back and dive into two secondary indicators we’re watching closely to tell us when the market (and growth stocks) will decisively break out.

It wasn’t surprising to see the market pick up some steam following the resolution to Washington’s latest deadline. But what has been surprising is the sheer strength seen from the broad market and leading stocks. They’re hot! And, as we had hoped, some new leadership is beginning to emerge during earnings season. Of course, investor sentiment is bubbly, earnings season is still ongoing and many stocks are extended, so some potholes are possible. But given the evidence, we’re shifting our Market Monitor back into bullish territory.

This week’s list has a bunch of names that had been taking a breather during the past two to four months, but have now come alive on big volume as the buyers return. Our favorite is Spirit Airlines (SAVE), one of the few airline stocks that has a true, sustainable growth story.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	165-175	145-150
Seagate Technology (STX)	0.00	47-50	42.5-44
Stratasys (SSYS)	0.00	105-110	99-100
SunPower (SPWR)	12.26	32-34	26-27
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK)	0.00	67-69	61-62
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	40-43	35-36
Google Inc. (GOOG)	0.00	980-1,000	862-882
Finisar (FNSR)	0.00	24.5-26	22-23
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)	0.00	51-54	45-46
Athenahealth (ATHN)	0.00	130-138	116-118

In recent weeks, we’ve seen outstanding moves among growth stocks (and, increasingly, the broad market), which coincided with increasing giddiness among many investors. That’s a yellow flag, and today, we saw the first signs of abnormal selling among the leaders—big-volume distribution was evident among many stocks, no matter what the sector. To be fair, few names truly broke down, so we’ll keep our Market Monitor where it’s been. But today was a shot across the bow; the next few days should tell us whether this is a shakeout (we’ve seen a few this year), or whether a deeper (and well-deserved) retreat is likely during October.

This week’s list has many names that are more recent winners, and those types of names held up far better than most extended stocks today. Our favorite of the week is Las Vegas Sands (LVS), a leader from 2009-2010 that has re-emerged after a two-year rest. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	144-147.5	138-139
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	75-78	68-70
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	111-116	100-102
Safeway (SWY)	0.00	29-31	26-27
NQ Mobile (NQ)	0.00	21-23	18-19
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)	0.00	62-65	58-59
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	33.5-35	29-30
Finisar (FNSR)	0.00	22-24	20.5-21
Salesforce.com (CRM)	0.00	50-52	46-47
Boeing (BA)	432.22	114-117	107-107.5

This remains a split tape, with many defensive and some commodity stocks testing new-high ground, while most of the market is chopping around, and growth stocks are still lagging. That said, we have seen a few rays of light lately—the mid-cap indexes are back above their 50-day lines, many growth stocks have held support for many weeks, and we’re seeing a few more potential leaders emerge on earnings or other good news. We’re sticking with our neutral Market Monitor until we see more bullish action among a variety of stocks and sectors, but the next week or two will be interesting.

This week’s list is still relatively heavy on commodity names, but our Top Pick is a growth stock that just completed a game-changing acquisition. Avago Technologies (AVGO) has great projected earnings growth, but the company reports earnings on May 29 so keep new positions small.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow (Z)	76.64	95-100	88-90
Nabors Industries (NBR)	0.00	25-26.5	23-24
Lazard (LAZ)	0.00	47-49	45-46
Diamondback Energy (FANG)	0.00	72-74	66-67
Extra Space Storage (EXR)	0.00	49-51	46-47
Constellium (CSTM)	0.00	29-31	27-27.5
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)	24.03	53.5-55.5	50-50.5
Broadcom Limited (AVGO)	266.26	66-69	61-62
Athlon Energy (ATHL)	0.00	39-41	36-37
AerCap (AER)	0.00	45.5-47.5	41.5-42

The market remains very strong, with the trends of the major indexes and the vast majority of stocks pointed up, both of which keeps us mostly bullish. But really, we’re looking at things mainly on a stock-by-stock basis now; some names are extremely extended and vulnerable to air pockets, while others are just a few weeks into what look like new, sustained advance. With that in mind, we’re actually taking partial profits on one stock today, while averaging up in another — all in all, we’ll still be around 18% in cash.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we write about some of our favorite cookie-cutter stories out there at the moment; we own one great one, but we’d like to have another. And we also review all our stocks, present some new ideas and talk a bit how to handle the speculative, super-hot names in the proper fashion.

Current Market Outlook


Last night, the headlines blared that there was no deal among Middle Eastern countries to curtail oil production, which led to a big overnight move down in oil prices and threatened to take a chunk out of major stock markets. Today, though, the reaction was fine—stocks actually rose on the day while oil prices declined only modestly. It’s not just a good lesson (pay attention—not to the news—but the market’s reaction to the news!), but also a good sign that the general market can shrug off “bad news” and continue along its way. More important will be earnings season, which will pick up steam in the days ahead. Right now, we continue to lean bullish and will be watching earnings reactions closely—how stocks react to their reports will be very revealing.

This week’s list has a mix of old world stocks (housing, construction, precious metals) and growth-oriented stocks (retail, technology). Our Top Pick is Adobe Systems (ADBE), a big-cap growth stock that has a great story and looks poised to break out.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TAL Education (XRS)	0.00	52-54.5	49-50
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	180-183	166-167
Weibo (WB)	98.16	20.5-21.5	18-19
U.S. Concrete (USCR)	0.00	61-63	55-56
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	22-23	20-20.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	58-61	53-54
KB Home (KBH)	36.05	13.5-14.5	12.5-13
Kate Spade & Company (KATE)	0.00	23-24.5	21-21.5
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)	79.05	38-39.5	35-36
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	94-97	87.5-88

I recently brought you an issue of Cabot Wealth Advisory that reviewed some of our most important investing lessons from the year written by three of our editors. Today, I’m going to bring you something from the rest, Timothy Lutts, Cabot publisher and editor of Cabot Stock of the Month, Paul Goodwin, editor of Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report and Michael Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Report and Cabot Market Letter. I hope this helps you tackle your next investing challenge.

The cannabis sector remains in a correction, with Canadian stocks in particular still struggling—even as Cannabis 2.0 promises new retail opportunities. But the fundamentals of the industry remain bright, and investors are now beginning to discriminate between the winners and the losers—with the best stocks showing substantial increases in buying volume recently.

The portfolio remains more than a third in cash, waiting for the sector’s main trend to turn up, and there are just two small adjustments today. The portfolio will sell half its position in Cresco Labs (CRLBF) and double its position in Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR).



Full details in the issue.

The main trend remains up, in both the broad market and the cannabis sector in particular, but in the intermediate-term, we are now in a correction, and thus a little more caution is advised.

In fact, in today’s issue, I’m raising cash by selling portions of the portfolio’s two biggest investments, and then buying some more of one of the portfolio’s “safest” investments, if anything in this industry can be called safe.

The market put in a solid show last week, with the indexes finally getting off their knees. However, as you can see from our new market monitor above, the field is still tilted toward the bears – eight days of rallying doesn’t undo the 15% to 20% decline seen from mid-December to mid-January. If a new bull market is starting, there will be plenty of time and opportunities, but for now, you should stay defensive, holding cash, and buying only small amounts of certain stocks. OptiMo’s pickings remain somewhat slim, as much of the market’s recent strength has come from the most beaten-down sectors (financials, homebuilders, transports), which aren’t high-odds setups. But we believe there are some emerging leaders in today’s Top Ten, led byInteractive Brokers (IBKR), a newly-public market maker and brokerage firm for professional investors. Its business depends on the market’s action; if a new bull market unfolds, it should drive earnings and the stock much higher.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ACI (ACI)	0.00	44-48	-
ACOR (ACOR)	0.00	22-26	-
CALM (CALM)	0.00	28-32	-
IBKR (IBKR)	0.00	33-35	-
NITE (NITE)	0.00	14-16	-
OI (OI)	0.00	46-52	-
RATE (RATE)	0.00	50-54	-
SID (SID)	0.00	88-95	-
TNE (TNE)	0.00	56-62	-
WMS (WMS)	0.00	35 1/2 - 39	-

The past month has brought great performances from many of our marijuana stocks, but right now, there’s a risk that the market is turning down, preparing to take some of our profits.

Long-term, however, trends toward increased legalization mean prospects for the marijuana sector are brighter than ever; next week’s election will tell us a lot about what the next few years might bring.



How do we balance this short-term risk with this long-term opportunity? By remaining invested in the best-performing stocks, of course.

After eleven weeks up, the broad market has been correctingfor the past fethreew weeks, and the marijuana stocks are also in gear, totally synchronized—which is good. Bottom line, this correction provides a fine buying opportunity.

I’m taking advantage of this opportunity to average up in Canada’s leading producer, Aphria (APHA). And I’m sticking with all the other portfolio stocks because I truly think we have a portfolio that will thrive as this industry matures.



Full details in the issue.