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The torrid 17% rally from the June low is sputtering. That makes this market dangerous.
After bleeding all year because of persistent high inflation and a hawkish Fed, the market rallied on newfound optimism. The market anticipates six to nine months down the road and investors envisioned a Fed that is all done hiking rates by then amid falling inflation. But that’s optimistic. And the optimism has been waning.

Over the past three years, special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, went from an obscure way for sketchy companies to become publicly traded to an extraordinarily trendy way for sketchy companies to become publicly traded.

This note includes our review of earnings from Dril-Quip (DRQ), General Electric (GE), Holcim (HCMLY), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), M/I Homes (MHO), Newell Brands (NWL), Polaris (PII), Shell plc (SHEL) and Xerox Holdings (XRX).

There were no ratings or price target changes this week.

The market is having a big day today. July CPI came out and showed moderation in inflation at 8.5% versus 9.1% in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 5.9%, the same as last month.

The lower CPI number was widely expected as gasoline and other commodity prices have come down significantly amid the recession fears. But it was still lower than the expected 8.7%. Core inflation didn’t go down, but it didn’t rise either, suggesting a possible leveling off.

This note includes our review of earnings from Adient (ADNT), Conduent (CNDT), Gannett (GCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD), Kaman Corporation (KAMN), Molson Coors (TAP), Organon & Co. (OGN), Vodafone (VOD), Western Digital (WDC) and Western Union (WU). Next week the deluge tapers with six companies reporting.

There were no ratings or price target changes this week.

This market is having quite a rally. The S&P 500 just had one of the best months ever in July, up 9.1% for the month, and is currently up more than 12% from the June low. Will the good times last?

Investors are sniffing an end game to the misery of ever-rising inflation and an ultra-hawkish Fed that has been dogging the market all year. The market tends to anticipate six months or so into the future. By then, it sees inflation under control and a Fed that is done hiking rates and maybe even talking about easing again.

This note includes our review of earnings from Macy’s (M). Next week, Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reports earnings.

This note includes our review of earnings from Brookfield Reinsurance (BAMR).

There were no ratings changes or price target changes this week.



This will be a brief note this week. It’s been a busy earnings season and we’re on the road this weekend in upstate New York. My oldest son will be a senior in high school starting in a few weeks and is knee-deep in the college application process. Visiting a dozen or so schools is, of course, part of this process.

In late 1991, two storm systems and Hurricane Grace combined to produce some of the most violent open seas conditions on record. One monitoring buoy in offshore Nova Scotia reported a 100.7-foot wave (picture a 10-story building), a record for the region. In 1997, Sebastian Junger wrote the book The Perfect Storm and in 2000 it was made into a movie starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg.

This rise of the U.S. dollar against the yen, euro and pound as well as most other currencies in the world is a mixed blessing for investors. You can take your capital gains and head to Europe or Japan for a trip and imported goods will be cheaper. On the other hand, American companies and stocks will be hurt by their exports being more expensive to overseas buyers and their overseas earnings will be worth less in U.S. dollars when brought back to America.

This note includes our review of earnings from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), ESAB Corporation (ESAB), TreeHouse Foods (THS), Viatris (VTRS), Vodafone (VOD) and ZimVie (ZIMV).

There were no ratings changes or price target changes this week.

It was a relatively quiet day on Wall Street, with the major indexes staying mostly range bound. At day’s end, the Dow up 19 points and the Nasdaq up 27 points

Markets continue to at best tread water. Yesterday, markets performed better as the Nasdaq Composite ended a seven-session streak of declines.

Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) shares were up 20% in their first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company signed a follow-on contract to supply additional KATFISH™ for the NATO Navy’s new mine hunting vessels.

The market has closed lower for three straight weeks and declined about 9% from the August high as we head into September. Where do we go from here?

The market is having trouble deciding. It’s still unclear what the primary threat or driver will be. Is the main problem inflation or recession? It remains to be seen if inflation has indeed peaked and if it’s headed lower. The state of the economy is also unclear. Is this a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction? It is also an open question if the economy remains buoyant or is declining from here.

We had a one year old in 2013 and took a trip to Nevis, an island in the West Indies where my grandfather had retired in the 1980s.

After bumping up against its 200-day moving average line the S&P 500 has pulled back this week. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index has followed suit.

Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market?

That’s the question investors are grappling with. Is this the end of the crummy market or is this 17% rally off the lows just a head fake? Let’s examine each possibility.

The market has turned south again. And things could be worse in September.

Blame the Fed. Blame inflation. Blame recession. Investors can’t look past them anymore. The market had rallied on hopes that inflation peaked, and the Fed will be all done hiking rates by the beginning of next year. But the Fed poured cold water on those hopes.



The end of this Fed hiking cycle is no longer in view after the recent hawkish statements by the Central Bank. The Fed indicated again last week that it is willing to induce a deeper recession to conquer this inflation. Rates may continue to rise well into next year and investors can’t see the light at the end of this tunnel anymore.

It’s starting to feel like a bull market. But let’s not bank on it just yet.

Inflation is moderating, and many see an end to the Fed tightening cycle by early next year. The Fed part is probably true. The Central Bank will likely raise the Fed Funds rate to around 3.5% and then stop. Higher than that would probably plunge the country and the world into a deeper recession. I doubt this Fed will have the belly to do that.

The strong 17% market rally is over. The S&P 500 is down 7.4% in the second half of August. And here comes Labor Day.

Sobered-up investors start paying attention again after Labor Day. And they can be cranky. That’s why September is historically the worst-performing month. Refocused investors probably won’t like what they see this year.

The optimism of the two months after the June low has faded.