Happy Holidays!
We’re mixing things up a little this week and next and going with very brief Weekly Updates.
Today, Santa needs to step back from the market and finish wrapping gifts. And with the combination of trying to take some time off with my family and a general lack of company-specific news we’ll likely keep things short again next week. The following week (the first week of 2021) we have a new Issue coming out on schedule, and we’ll get back into our normal groove after that.
My main message today is really just to touch base and say thank you for being part of the Cabot family in 2020 and I hope you have a happy and healthy Holiday season. In some ways 2020 is a year we want to kick in the butt and say good riddance to. But in some other ways, like looking at our portfolio balances and thinking about positive changes that are arising due to the pandemic, 2020 has been very good. Such a mixed bag it’s hard to put it all into words. So let’s not bother trying!
On to our portfolio …
Over the past week our stocks are up by an average of 6%. Personalis (PSNL) led the charge by rallying 17% and is now up almost 50% from our entry point 21 days ago. You can still buy a little, but continue to look to buy on weakness.
Cerence (CRNC) is also near the front of the pack, up 14% over the past week and up 116% from when we got in on October 10.
Finally, Karyopharm (KPTI) has shown signs of life and is up 10% over the past week. Karyopharm is also the only company in our portfolio with meaningful news over the last week. Management announced that XPOVIO, in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone, has been approved for the treatment of adult patients with multiple myeloma who have received at least one prior therapy. This significantly expands the market potential for the once-weekly oral treatment as it can now reach many more patients, and patients can be on the treatment for longer. This should have a material positive impact on revenue, which should more than double in 2021 off an expected 2020 revenue base of roughly $100 million.
It remains to be seen exactly how quickly physicians will put patients on the treatment. And with the pandemic still a major issue it is possible that things could be delayed. But the bottom line is this is a significant development and the approval comes three months ahead of the expected PDUFA date in March. That means Karyopharm management has an entire quarter in 2021 of bonus time.
Somewhat surprisingly, the stock jumped on the news but hasn’t advanced since. That’s disappointing to me as I had expected a larger initial jump on this news as well as significant positive follow through. It may be that there are so many other stocks attracting investor dollars now that KPTI is slipping through the cracks, or that investors are waiting to see the initial impact on revenue.
In any event, the path forward is looking better and KPTI remains at buy. BUY
That’s it for now. Have a great Holiday and I’ll be back in touch just before the New Year with another brief update.
