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Small-Cap Confidential
Undiscovered stocks that can make you rich

November 23, 2022

A quick reminder that Cabot will be closed tomorrow and Friday for Thanksgiving. I hope you have a great holiday and enjoy a break from the market.

As far as our portfolio goes there is very little that’s changed since last week.

Treace Medical (TMCI), which is recovering nicely after the short seller attack a couple of weeks ago, announced treatment of the first patient in the MTA3D Adductoplasty Clinical Study. This study looks at how well patients do after the Adductoplasty Procedure combined with Lapiplasty Procedure. It will have up to 80 patients treated in up to 10 U.S. sites and will study them for five years after the procedure.

On the economic front, minutes from the last FOMC meeting come out today at 2 p.m. ET. Then, next week we have a few significant events. The second estimate of Q3 GDP comes out Wednesday, as does the JOLTS jobs report. The October JOLTS report showed job openings rose to 10.7 million and that the supply of jobs exceeded demand for jobs by 4.6 million. That work out to 1.8 job openings per unemployed worker.

The Fed doesn’t want that. They want to see job openings drop as a result of tighter monetary conditions. With all the layoffs in tech recently we could see a smaller rise in the JOLTS report, but I’m not sure there were enough layoffs in October to make the JOLTS drop.

Looking out a few more weeks we have another FOMC meeting wrapping up on Wednesday, December 14. The market has assigned a 76% probability of a 50-bp hike. Just prior to this we’ll get the October CPI report, on Tuesday, December 13. The Fed is sure to factor this report into their thinking. It would be huge to get a second lower-than-expected CPI report (like we saw in October).

The December FOMC meeting will likely set the stage for market performance in the last few weeks of 2022 and into early 2023.

Right now the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is handling everything just fine. It has been bouncing around its 200-day moving average line over the last week and closed 1.2% above it yesterday. Big picture, the market continues to expect the Fed is nearing the end of this hiking cycle, and that should create a better environment for us.

That said, these upcoming economic data releases will be crucial to keep the Fed from ratcheting up their hawkish rhetoric once again.

Stock NameDate BoughtPrice BoughtPrice on 11/22/22ProfitRating
Enovix (ENVX)10/6/222012-42%Buy
Flywire (FLYW)8/4/22 & 11/9/222220-7%Buy
Inspire Medical (INSP)10/4/1959225284%Hold
Procept BioRobotics (PRCT)3/3/22254683%Hold Half
Rani Therapeutics (RANI)10/7/21 & 7/28/22147-48%Hold
Repligen (RGEN)11/2/18 & 12/31/1859172190%Hold
Sprout Social (SPT)9/3/20366166%Hold Half
TransMedics Group (TMDX)7/7/22345869%Hold 3/4
Treace Medical (TMCI)11/3/2222221%Hold Half
Xometry (XMTR)1/6/225242-20%Hold
Tyler Laundon is chief analyst of the limited-subscription advisory, Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and grand slam advisory Cabot Early Opportunities. He has spent his entire career managing, consulting and analyzing start-up and small-cap companies. His hands-on experience has taught Tyler that the development of a superior business model is the biggest factor in determining a company’s long-term success. Accordingly, his research focuses on assessing the viability of management’s growth strategies, trends in addressable markets and achievement of major developmental milestones.