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Small-Cap Confidential
Undiscovered stocks that can make you rich

May 6, 2020

Three portfolio stocks reported earnings today, and one moves to Hold.

Everbridge (EVBG), Repligen (RGEN) and Inspire (INSP) – Wowzers!

Everbridge (EVBG) is surging roughly 20% today after a killer Q1 report that beat on both the top and bottom lines. Management commentary illustrates the huge potential of the platform, which is likely still early in its adoption around the world as it represents the modern day playbook for dealing with critical situations of all variety, from terrorist attacks to severe weather to pandemics.

Revenue was up 38% to $59 million, beating by $1.24 million. Adjusted EPS of -$0.16 beat by $0.21. More intriguing is that the company ended the quarter with 5,218 global enterprise customers, up from 4,532 a year ago, and after adding a record 194 in Q1. Management said COVID-19 spurred more awareness of Everbridge’s CEM suite and pulled deals into the quarter as executives prioritized “getting this done” over other projects, even amid a crazy time. One key differentiator for this pandemic versus other critical events is the duration of it.

Messaging volume tells a similar story, with over 300 million COVID-19 messages sent in the quarter. That’s compared to just 15 million when Hurricane Dorian struck.

Expenses went up a little due to all the implementation work, and some country-wide deployments are likely to be delayed due to on-site work that can’t be done until travel restrictions are lifted. That said, in some markets, such as Norway, work is moving very quickly.

Management issued 2020 revenue guidance slightly above consensus and which implies roughly 30% revenue growth. Adjusted EPS estimates for 2020 are now being adjusted WAY higher, to roughly -$0.19, versus prior consensus near -$0.76, due to adding back the accretion of interest on convertible notes.

At the time of writing this we are up 780%! Let’s keep holding on. HOLD

Repligen (RGEN) is trading roughly 8% higher mid-day Wednesday after beating on the top and bottom lines. Revenue was up 26% to $76 million while adjusted EPS of $0.32 beat by $0.22. Business was good across the company. The company derives 70% of revenue from clinical-stage manufacturing but says so far, so good, with no material slowdown or evidence of major delays in clinical trials. The company generates just under 10% of revenue from vaccine development and as such is well-positioned to capture revenue growth from the COVID-19 push. There are some moving parts as the Protein business is doing better than expected while Filtration could be hit somewhat by COVID-19 related weakness. But overall, things are tracking well enough for the conservative management team to maintain 2020 guidance for 10% to 14% organic revenue growth. The market likes the results and sees RGEN as in a strong position to keep growing through this pandemic and beyond. I agree. We are up around 105%. HOLD

Inspire (INSP) is trading modestly higher after Q1 results missed expectations by a small margin. This event was somewhat telegraphed because management pre-announced about three weeks ago. Revenue was up 31% to $21.5 million while adjusted EPS of -$0.67 missed by $0.13. Management pulled guidance because of COVID-19 in April and didn’t reinstate it yesterday afternoon. They reminded us that the FDA approved the expanded age range for Inspire therapy to include 18- to 21-year-olds and that they think this paves the way for eventual pediatric approval. There was a good deal of talk on the conference call about how to make up deferred procedures, which are starting to be rescheduled now, but a lot depends on when facilities and doctors are available. There is also likely to be some pent-up demand from Medicare policies that now extend coverage to more patients who can benefit from implants but who didn’t really get into the pipeline when the pandemic hit.

Stepping back, the big move for INSP came when management pre-announced in April. At that time it also completed a secondary offering which, somewhat surprisingly, was well-received despite all that was going on at the time. I am concerned that the cadence of procedures could be less than expected, depending on how the country does opening up, but for now I’m inclined to let the stock’s strength, or weakness, inform our decision on what to do. Management has said that Inspire is often not classified as elective because of the reduced quality of life of sleep apnea, and it’s a profitable procedure for the hospital so for better or worse that can move these procedures up the line in terms of priority.

All things considered I’m moving to hold today since it’s hard to be super bullish without more insight into the future and I expect to keep it there unless we see shares slip much below 65 (lacking more information). We are up around 19%. HOLD