Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Earnings Trader
Collect the Biggest Option Payouts Every Quarter

February 8, 2023

Cabot Options Institute Earnings Trader – Alert (DIS)

Disney (DIS)

As discussed in our weekly issue this week, and on our weekly call last Friday, I will be taking a position in Disney (DIS) today. DIS is due to announce earnings after the closing bell today (February 8). The stock is currently trading for 111.10.

IV Rank: 29.1

Expected Move for the February 17, 2023, Expiration Cycle: 104 to 118

Knowing the expected range, I want to place the short call strike and short put strike of my iron condor outside of the expected range, in this case outside of 104 to 118.

If we look at the call side of DIS for the February 17, 2023, expiration, we can see that selling the 124 call strike offers an 88.35% probability of success. The 124 call strike sits just above the expected move, or 118. We can define our risk by buying the 129 call, thereby creating a five-strike-wide bear call spread at the 124/129 call strikes.


Now let us move to the put side. Same process as the call side. But now we want to find a suitable strike below the low side of our expected move, or 104. The 100 put, with an 87.66% probability of success, works. Staying with a five-strike-wide spread, I can buy the 95 put to define our risk and create a bull put spread at the 100/95 strikes.


We can create a trade with a nice probability of success if DIS stays within the 24-point range, or between the 124 call strike and the 100 put strike. Our probability of success on the trade is 88.35% on the upside and 87.66% on the downside.

Moreover, we have an 11.6% cushion to the upside and a 9.9% margin of error to the downside…


Courtesy of Slope of Hope

Here is the trade:


Sell to open DIS February 17, 2023, 124 calls
Buy to open DIS February 17, 2023, 129 calls
Sell to open DIS February 17, 2023, 100 puts
Buy to open DIS February 17, 2023, 95 puts for roughly $0.70 or $70 per iron condor (As always, the price of the spread can vary from the time of the alert, so please adjust accordingly)

Our margin requirement would be $430 per iron condor. Again, the goal of selling the DIS iron condor is to have the underlying stock stay below the 124 call strike and above the 100 put strike immediately after DIS earnings are announced.

Here are the parameters for this trade:

The probability of success – 88.35% (call side) and 87.66% (put side)

The maximum return on the trade is the credit of $0.70, or $70 per iron condor

Max return: 16.3%

Breakeven level: 124.70 – 99.30

Andy Crowder is a professional options trader, researcher and Chief Analyst of Cabot Options Institute. Formerly with Oppenheimer & Co. in New York, Andy has leveraged his investment experience to develop his statistically based options trading strategy which applies probability theory to option valuations in order to execute risk-controlled trades. This proprietary strategy has been refined through two decades of research and real-world experience and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Seeking Alpha, and numerous other financial publications. Andy has helped thousands of option traders learn and implement his meticulous rules-driven options trading strategies through highly attended conferences, one-on-one coaching, webinars, and his work as a financial columnist. He currently resides in Bolton Valley, Vermont and when he’s not trading, teaching and writing about options, he enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters, backcountry skiing, biking, running and enjoying all things outdoors.