Current Market Outlook


The first week of the year was extremely volatile, but all in all the action ended up positive, with major indexes kissing fresh all-time highs and many leading stocks ending up nicely on the week. Overall, then, not much has changed—the primary evidence remains positive, so we’re content to ride things higher, but there’s little doubt the environment is hot and heavy (basically the opposite of what we saw 10 months ago), so you should continue to keep your feet on the ground (trail stops, take partial profits when available) and be discerning with your buys (aiming to enter after a bit of rest or some sharp shakeouts to support areas).

Because of this, most of our buy ranges are a bit below current prices (looking for pullbacks), though we still see some solid setups. One is Snap (SNAP), which is a clear leader in the internet space and has just returned to its highs after its first test of the 10-week line since its October blastoff.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
8x8, Inc. (EGHT)	35.5	32.5-34.5	27.5-29
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	116.8	108-112	97-99
The Mosaic Company (MOS)	26.8	25-27	21.5-22.5
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	364.6	345-360	310-320
Progyny (PGNY)	44.9	40.5-43	36.5-38
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	54.4	53-55	47-48.5
Spotify (SPOT)	344.2	335-347	297-304
Sunrun (RUN)	95.8	87-91	74-77
Vale S.A. (VALE)	18.6	17.4-18.2	15.8-16.2
Zillow (Z)	143.2	134-140	119-122

As we move into a new year, the market shrugs off the chaos engulfing Capitol Hill and the GOP losing its majority in the U.S. Senate. Expect higher federal spending and debt in the next couple years, though it should be mentioned that we have already added $8 trillion to the national debt over the past four years. There were a few bright spots but Explorer stocks in general drifted a bit lower over the last week.

Today we have a new recommendation of a company of at the forefront of the technology revolution.

In the closing days of 2020, when many people were focused on preparing for the holidays, a small software company went public through a SPAC IPO. The event occurred on December 23.

Part customer relationship management (CRM) platform, part lead generation and marketing platform, the company’s software helps home services companies grow and manage their businesses, and it streamlines the move-in and post-move journey for homeowners.



The stock represents a compelling way for investors to gain exposure to evolving consumer and business trends related to the housing market and home services, especially home inspection, moving, insurance and utility services. After a pandemic-affected 2020 growth could top 60% in 2021, then remain well above 30% for the foreseeable future.



All the details are inside. Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2021 issue.

With the turning of the calendar, we list eleven long-term secular trends that we see shaping the world for years to come. We also include four additional trends that investors may think are enduring yet which we have less certainty about their ability to continue indefinitely.



Contrarian investors can benefit from considering these trends. Sometimes the most appealing stocks are those that superficially go against them.



The current recommended list includes 14 names, with Merck (MRK) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) added this month. Earning season is starting soon, so we’ll get updates on how these companies are faring and provide our commentary and analysis on them.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

The Cabot Profit Booster portfolio had a spectacular 2020, aided by great stock picks from Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo, “juicy” call premiums which we sold via our covered call strategy, and a generally strong market. Now that the calendar has flipped to 2021, we will stick to the plan, and manage our open positions with an eye out for risk, while continuing to sell covered calls on the best of stocks. This brings me to today’s recommendation …

The market sold off broadly this morning, and it certainly needed it. The market has been too strong for too long! But the main trend remains up and thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested.

Today’s recommendation is a search technology company with fast growth and great growth prospects, first recommended by Mike Cintolo.



As for our current holdings, I have two sell recommendations today, B&G Foods (BGS) and Zoom Video (ZM).



Full details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


After a prosperous last 12 months, 2021 got off to a sour start today, though that wasn’t totally surprising—early-January is known for crosscurrents and profit taking (especially after good years) as big investors un-hedge and reposition their portfolios. That doesn’t mean today’s weakness should be excused, but what counts most is what happens from here: Another couple of rounds of sharp selling in the leaders and major indexes (possibly coinciding with some intermediate-term breakdowns) would tell us the bears are making a stand, while a quick show of support in many key stocks will be a good sign. We’re keeping our eyes peeled, but so far, the trends of the market and the vast majority of stocks remains up, so we remain mostly bullish, though are continuing to pick our spots.

The first Top Ten list of the year is a mixed bag in terms of stocks and sectors. Our Top Pick is Bill.com (BILL), which is finding support after a normal, early-stage retreat.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AGCO Corporation (AGCO)	102	99-103	89-91
Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)	84	74-78	62-64
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	138	133-138	119-122
BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO)	64	61-64	53-55
CrowdStrike (CRWD)	201	194-202	167-172
Inari Medical (NARI)	85	81-85	71-73
Kohl’s (KSS)	39	37.5-39.5	33-34
Lam Research (LRCX)	478	460-480	420-430
Lemonade (LMND)	113	106-113	90-94
MongoDB (MDB)	350	342-352	310-315

It’s been a great year for growth stocks, and we’re glad to have easily outperformed the major indexes, adding to our longer-term track record. Whatever the exact numbers, we hope you enjoyed a prosperous 2020, and have a great and healthy New Year.

That said, we’re always looking ahead. Big picture, we remain bullish, but growth stocks have hit a bit of a pothole this week, which wasn’t totally unexpected. We’re not reacting to the action yet, though we’re also comfortable holding our 19% cash position and see what comes as the calendar flips.

REITs have strengthened since our last update, despite the near-certainty that the Fed will hike rates next month. The strongest performers include residential, data center and storage REITs, and a select group of retail REITs. Utilities, industrials and health care stocks have also had a good week, while financials and materials stocks have stumbled.

Many companies reported earnings this week, including many of our recommendations. In this week’s update, I update my position on eight stocks.

While things are a bit giddy in the short-term and we’re still in the midst of earnings season (three of our stocks release their numbers tonight or tomorrow), our trend-following indicators bullish and growth stocks are acting great. Thus, you should keep your optimist’s hat on.

After stumbling last Wednesday, the market is back on its feet, with the major indexes all hitting new highs in recent days. Technology stocks have led the way, a reversal of the Dow outperformance we’d seen over the past two weeks.

Many stocks are rising—either toward former highs, or surpassing recent highs—because the companies are growing profits very well. It’s not “Trump,” nor “irrational exuberance,” nor “a lack of other good investment markets.” It’s simply strong earnings growth.

It’s been another sideways week in small-cap land. The S&P 600 index is essentially unchanged from last week, and despite some cross-currents under the surface, is holding firm just above 910.

The iShares EM Fund (EEM) is holding above its moving averages, which keeps the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer a bright green. But the weakness in Chinese stocks is hitting the portfolio hard. In response, we have six moves today.

In this Weekly Update, I summarize the latest news for three companies that reported earnings in the past week.

The S&P 500 rose 15% year-to-date through October 20, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 18% year-to-date. Those achievements are not remotely unusual when stocks are having a good year. However, it would be normal to expect price corrections along the way—corrections which have been curiously absent this year.

Even though the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs this week, news flow felt a little more negative, and the small-cap indices all moved slightly lower.

One major news item that hit one of our stocks.

Remain bullish, but be selective on new buys as earnings season revs up. The overall market remains in great shape, with all our market timing indicators solidly bullish. Short-term, a pullback wouldn’t be surprising, but the odds remain in favor of higher prices down the road.

This real estate software/analytics company is setting a pace for double-digit earnings (estimated at 24.11% annually) for the next five years.

Today, I’m creating a fourth portfolio category within Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor: Special Situations. This will be a portfolio for capital gain opportunities that do not conveniently fit into the other three portfolios.

Here’s a fund that employs a ‘smart beta’ style to increase performance.

Investing in up markets is easy. From the December low until recently, the strong market provided a huge tailwind that sent marijuana stocks soaring—and had our portfolio, at the peak, up 57.2% year-to-date.

There are five top holdings in this fund.

Five analysts have raised their earnings estimates for this biopharma in the past 30 days.

Our Cabot Tides turned negative today, telling us the intermediate-term uptrend has broken.

This semiconductor stock has recently received two analyst upgrades: from KeyBanc, to ‘Overweight’, and Goldman Sachs, to ‘Buy’.

One stock announces first-quarter results and M&A activity and moves from Strong Buy to Hold and another announces first-quarter results, a dividend decrease and an intention to separate into two companies.

Zacks Research also recently recommended this genetic information company stock based on rising sales and increasing analyst price targets.

Three stocks in the portfolio reported earnings.

One portfolio stock reports a disappointing first quarter.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.