Nothing has officially changed with our market timing indicators, so we remain in a very cautious stance, but the wear-you-out bear phase of the past couple of years (and the sharp declines of the past three months) has had many secondary indicators (breadth, sentiment, etc.) in high-reward positions, and this week’s strength is certainly intriguing. We’re not jumping the gun in any major way, but we are adding one half-sized position in a strong actor and have our antennae up to see if this rally can finally be the real deal.

In tonight’s issue, we review our remaining positions (most of which have popped nicely), our overall market thoughts (including some rays of light from our Two-Second Indicator) and go over many high-potential stocks should the bulls continue to press forward.

The market remains under pressure as interest rates rise, which keeps us in a cautious stance -- we’re holding nearly as much cash as we have during the past two years as few stocks are able to sustain any upside. That said, we actually think the market has a solid setup here--there are a decent number of names forming normal launching pads, sentiment is awful and earnings season could be a catalyst. The bulls still have a lot to prove, but we’re remaining flexible should the buyers appear.


Tonight’s issue reviews our remaining names and market outlook in more detail, talks about some big-picture positives to keep in mind, as well as some things we want to see as a sign the buyers are taking control. More watchful waiting is needed, but we’re keeping our watch list up to date should the market’s character change.

The market remains in a correction, with most indexes, sectors and stocks in control of the sellers, and until that changes, we’re advising a cautious stance with plenty of cash and little new buying; in the Model Portfolio, we trimmed further this week and are up to around 65% in cash.

That said, we’re staying alert for many reasons, not the least of which is that we’re starting to see some real, true oversold readings (which we consider “alerts”) and because more than a few growth stocks are resisting the decline, hitting higher lows since August. That’s not a reason to buy, but we’re keeping our watch list in good shape and are ready to move if the buyers appear.

The market remains in a two-month correction, but as opposed to the sloppy action seen in recent weeks, the sellers are now starting to pounce, damaging even the resilient big-cap indexes. Longer-term, we still believe the next major move is likely to be up, but we can’t ignore what’s in front of us: We’ve been cautious for weeks, and earlier today on a special bulletin, we pared back on two of our current positions, which will leave us with a cash position in the low 50% range.

In tonight’s issue, we give you our latest thoughts on just about everything -- our stocks, the market, the big picture and interest rates, which, after two years, are still one of (if not the) key drivers of the market. There will be a sustained advance that comes out of all this, but we continue to think patience is the name of the game for now.

The market showed some promise in the past couple of weeks, but our indicators never could turn up and now the sellers are back at it, driving the broad market back down. All in all, then, the correction that started in earnest in early August remains in place, so we’re remaining relatively cautious. To be fair, there are some positives, not the least of which is growth stocks, many of which reacted well to earnings last week and a bunch have been resilient of late. That’s not enough to start a buying spree, but it’s another sign that there should be fresh leadership to sink our teeth into whenever the correction finishes up.

In tonight’s issue, we talk about one fundamental transition that three potential leaders are in the midst of, review our Growth Tides and go over a bunch of enticing candidates, be them cyclical or growth stocks.

The market remains in a correction, though we’re fairly encouraged by this week’s bounce in growth titles, which corresponds with some souring sentiment and many big-picture positives. That’s good to see--but there’s been nothing decisive on the upside, so we remain cautious and flexible, holding plenty of cash and patiently waiting for the major uptrend to resume. We do have one new small buy tonight, but that will still leave us with around half the portfolio in cash.

In tonight’s issue, we write about the short- and long-term view of interest rates, and spend a good amount of space highlighting some names that could be ready to run when the market kicks into gear--including a bigger watch list with a couple of new names.

The overall market has started to pull back, and the encouraging news is that, from a top-down perspective, things are under control--our trend-following indicators are positive and the retreat to this point has shown little, if any, abnormal qualities. The problem, though, is growth stocks, as many of them haven’t just fallen, but decisively cracked their intermediate-term uptrends, often after quarterly results--that’s not something we can ignore, and so we’ve been selling and have quickly built up a big (50%-ish) cash position. Near-term, we expect this correction to go further, but the odds continue to favor a resumption of the bull trend once the selling finishes up.

In tonight’s issue, we write a lot about this earnings season and some slightly different tactics we may use going ahead, aiming to still give us long-term upside but better protect ourselves against trends that don’t persist. We also review a bunch of new names and offer plenty of commentary about the good, bad and ugly of the stocks we own and are watching.

The big-picture outlook with the market hasn’t changed, with all of our key market timing indicators bullish, many studies pointing to higher prices down the road and leaders--even those that have taken hits--showing little abnormal action. That said, near-term, the odds are growing we may see more choppy trading, if not a pullback of some sort, so we’re not pushing the envelope here and are ditching names that crack. Earlier this week, that meant selling one position, and today, we’re selling another, leaving us with 28% in cash.

To be clear, the odds still favor the next big move being up, so we’re aiming to put some money to work in new leadership that emerges on earnings, or current leadership that pulls in to support. For now, though, we’ll hold the cash and see how earnings season progresses.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we go over a few new ideas, with the biggest write-up being what could be the #1 AI platform play (not picks and shovels, but actual platform) out there. It’s on our watch list.

There’s not much to say: The market and leading stocks continue to act in a textbook fashion, with not just more up than down but tame pullbacks that respect logical support and big volume on the advances--all signs that big investors are accumulating stock. We still want to be selective on new buys, and we’re sure earnings season will throw everyone a few curveballs, but we continue to put money to work--today we’re adding a few more shares to one of our positions and adding a full-sized stake in a new name.

Elsewhere tonight, we write about another bullish long-term market indicator, what the recent action in interest rates mean, and go over many leading and potential leading stocks that are enjoying the market’s newfound uptrend.

It’s not a perfect picture, but the vast majority of evidence out there remains bullish, and that’s especially true for the vital leading index (Nasdaq) and leading growth stocks, which have rested normally after beefy, big-volume advances. We’re putting a bit more money to work today by averaging up in a current name, and will ideally put more to work when either (a) a couple of our current holdings overcome resistance (to average up), and/or (b) when some names on our watch list consolidate a bit longer.

In tonight’s issue, we talk about some of the confusion we’re hearing out there about sentiment (not a worry at all in our book), talk about one non-growth sector that reminds us a lot of oil stocks a couple of years ago (before that big run) and go in-depth on some new ideas and, of course, all our holdings.

The market has been following a very bullish script for the past few weeks, doing just about everything it “needed” to do -- our Cabot Tides have turned positive, as has our Two-Second Indicator, while our Aggression Index tells us growth-ier names are in favor. And more important, individual names are now breaking out (not failing) and following through on the upside. Obviously, the market has come a long way in a short time, and we are starting to see a few strong names wobble a bit, so we’re not going whole hog right here, but we are continuing with our plan of steadily putting money to work -- tonight, we’re filling out our position in one current holding and starting a new half-sized position in a new name. That should leave us with around 40% in cash.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we go over all our new stocks and our watch list, write about one strong sector outside of growth and dive into some solid longer-term positive signs for the market as a whole.

The market still has many of the same issues that have been hanging around for weeks, including an extreme narrowness, with the vast majority of the market struggling while mega-cap indexes do pretty well. Even so, we do think the evidence has taken a step in the right direction -- the AI boomlet is a positive sign, and many non-AI leaders acted well in May and have rested normally since. We’re not flooring the accelerator, but given our monstrous cash position, we’re dropping a couple more lines in the water tonight, adding two half-sized stakes in old favorites.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we give our thoughts (and some ideas) within the AI advance, write about a long-term growth area that could be re-emerging and, as always, go over our stocks, an expanded watch list and some other new ideas to chew on.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious overall, but if you have a ton of cash, it’s OK to put a little to work. Our market timing indicators have improved, but by our eye, haven’t yet turned up, and while last week was a great first step for the market, there hasn’t been much follow through or expansion of new highs. To be clear, we’re optimistic and a few good days could make all the difference, but right here we’re still going slow and seeing if the market and leadership can truly emerge. In the Model Portfolio, we’ll buy another half of DraftKings (DKNG), leaving us with around 65% in cash. We’re also restoring our Buy rating on Uber (UBER) for those that don’t own any given the stock’s very powerful snapback. If things kick into gear, we’ll likely put money to work quickly, but right now we’re going slow and letting the rally prove itself. Details below.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market cave-in continues, with some sacred cows and resilient stocks catching up on the downside now. The trend clearly remains down, and while we’re not craving more cash (69% coming into today), have only smaller positions and see some legitimate oversold signs out there, we’re also not going to just hold and hope with things that are caving in. Tonight, then, we’ll sell the rest of our ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO) and one-third of what we have left in Uber (UBER), which will leave us with just over three-quarters of the portfolio on the sideline. Details below.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. The bounce starting last Friday does come from a nice setup and, encouragingly, has seen more than a few growth stocks perk up, including some to new highs. However, the weight of the evidence remains pointed to the downside, with our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator clearly negative, the vast majority of stocks also in intermediate-term downtrends and interest rates still trending up. We’re taking it one day at a time, but right now, we’re sticking with a big cash position of around 65%—we have no changes in the Model Portfolio tonight.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious, as there’s not much change with our indicators or stance—the intermediate-term trend of most stocks, sectors and indexes is down, and while sentiment is very bearish and a decent number of growth stocks are holding well, it’s best to stay close to shore until the buyers return. Yesterday, we sold one-third of our remaining position in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO) and are now holding about 55% in cash.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. Most stocks, sectors and indexes are still stuck in the throes of a corrective phase, though we do like some things like our resilient Aggression Index and (relatedly) some sturdy action among growth stocks. While we could add another small position if the market firms up a bit, we’re comfortable with the stocks we have in the Model Portfolio and our positioning right now. Thus, we’ll stand pat tonight and practice more patience—our cash position is in the low 40% range.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Do a little buying. The market’s evidence has improved somewhat, as have our indicators, though we haven’t seen any fresh green lights just yet (Cabot Tides on the fence, Two-Second Indicator getting there, etc.) and growth stocks are still hit and miss. Given the improvement and the big-picture positives (including our bullish Cabot Trend Lines), we’re putting a little money to work but are still to hold plenty of cash. Tonight, we’ll average up on Noble (NE) and start a half-sized stake in CrowdStrike (CRWD), which will leave us with about 40% on the sideline. If the rally falters, we’ll prune, but obviously if the buyers flex their muscles after Labor Day, we’ll be looking to add more. Details below.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. The selling is spreading out now, so much so that our Cabot Tides have flipped to a sell signal as the number of new lows picks up. The odds still favor this being a correction, not a massive new downtrend, but most stocks (and especially growth stocks) remain under the gun. Tonight, we’re forced to sell our small remaining position in Shift4 (FOUR), which we gave every chance to hold up but has decisive broken down. We’ll also place ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO) on Hold given the Tides signal, though we’re holding onto what we own. All told, our cash position will be around 55%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to pare back and hold some cash—though you should also continue to hold your resilient stocks and keep your eyes open for an eventual turn back up in the market (and growth stocks in particular). In the Model Portfolio, we sold pieces of DoubleVerify (DV) and Celsius (CELH) earlier this week, leaving us with 36% in cash. We’ll stand pat tonight but will be on the horn if we have any further changes going ahead.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but be prepared for some near-term (and possibly earnings-induced) gyrations. Today’s sharp drop in the Nasdaq and many leaders is a short-term shot across the bow—combined with some other factors, the odds are growing that we may finally see some selling that lasts for more than a couple of days. That said, the overall environment remains bullish, with higher prices likely down the road. All in all, we’re bullish but are taking things on a stock-by-stock basis and expect some further wobbles in the days ahead. Our only change tonight is that we’re placing Celsius (CELH) on Hold. Our cash position remains around 16%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic but keep an open mind. At this point, our market timing indicators remain bullish and we’re seeing little abnormal action among leading stocks—that said, the Fed/interest rate situation refuses to go away, and near term, some more shaking of the tree is certainly possible to raise the fear level. Tonight, we have no new buys or sells, but we’ll place Inspire Medical (INSP) and Monday.com (MNDY) on Hold and see how things progress. Our cash position will remain in the 30% range.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and leading stocks have finally begun to pull in somewhat, but the action has been completely normal so far and our market timing indicators are bullish. We’ve put a good chunk of money to work of late, and tonight we have one small addition—we’ll add a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio) in DraftKings (DKNG), which seems to be set up well. That will leave us with around 35% in cash, which we’ll aim to put to work (including, ideally, by filling out some existing positions) if the market continues to behave itself.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market has steadily shown improvement during the past two or three weeks, with even yesterday’s rotation helping the broad market—and today’s snapback in leading stocks is good to see. Our Cabot Tides have effectively turned positive, and our Two-Second Indicator is close, too. Having just put a slug of money to work (including three new half-sized buys on Tuesday’s special bulletin), we’ll sit tight tonight, but if the good vibes continue, we’ll probably add more exposure next week. We have no changes tonight. Our cash position stands around 50%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: In yesterday’s update we wrote that the market still had a lot to prove, and indeed, the market is down further today despite a dip in interest rates—and more important to us is that some of the resilient names are getting hit with the market. One of those is Uber (UBER), which is cracking support on no news. We’re not craving more cash, but we’ll respect the action and sell one-third of our stake in Uber (UBER) this afternoon and see how it goes from here. Our cash position will now be in the upper 60% range.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action of late is encouraging for sure, but there’s still more work to do with our Cabot Tides and growth funds. Today we’re going to sell our small remaining position in DoubleVerify (DV) and hold the cash—with an eye toward redeploying the funds in the near future should the market and individual stocks continue to firm up. Our cash level will now be around 45%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action of late is encouraging for sure, but there’s still more work to do with our Cabot Tides and growth funds. Today we’re going to sell our small remaining position in DoubleVerify (DV) and hold the cash—with an eye toward redeploying the funds in the near future should the market and individual stocks continue to firm up. Our cash level will now be around 45%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action of late is encouraging for sure, but there’s still more work to do with our Cabot Tides and growth funds. Today we’re going to sell our small remaining position in DoubleVerify (DV) and hold the cash—with an eye toward redeploying the funds in the near future should the market and individual stocks continue to firm up. Our cash level will now be around 45%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action of late is encouraging for sure, but there’s still more work to do with our Cabot Tides and growth funds. Today we’re going to sell our small remaining position in DoubleVerify (DV) and hold the cash—with an eye toward redeploying the funds in the near future should the market and individual stocks continue to firm up. Our cash level will now be around 45%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious here as the correction plays out. Growth stocks continue to take the worst of it, with many names hitting intermediate-term peaks, though the selling is spreading to the rest of the market, too. Eventually, this should provide some excellent opportunities, but in the meantime we’re moving into more cash—today we’re going to dump our small-ish remaining positions of Monday.com (MNDY) and MasTec (MTZ), which will leave us with a bit over 50% in cash, which represents lots of buying power once the correction ends.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Earnings season remains a landmine of sorts, though we have seen some names find support later in the week. This bulletin is in regards to MasTec (MTZ), which, frankly, reported a totally unexpected sour quarter and poor outlook, which is leading to a big break today. We’ll sell half of our shares and hold the cash for now, leaving us with around 41% on the sideline.

WHAT TO DO NOW: After selling half of DoubleVerify (DV) yesterday, we’re going to prune our position in Celsius (CELH), which has been stalling out for about a month and a half and is now cracking some near-term support. The big-picture chart isn’t bad, so we’ll hold a good-sized stake, but we’ll trim here and hold the cash. That will leave us with around 36% in cash.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is quiet today, and while the possibility of a near-term pullback in growth stocks is growing, the big-picture evidence remains in good shape. Today, though, we are pulling the plug on Inspire Medical (INSP), which hasn’t been able to get going and today is cracking support on big volume. We’ll sell our half position and hold the cash.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is quiet today, and while the possibility of a near-term pullback in growth stocks is growing, the big-picture evidence remains in good shape. Today, though, we are pulling the plug on Inspire Medical (INSP), which hasn’t been able to get going and today is cracking support on big volume. We’ll sell our half position and hold the cash.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s action continues to take steps in the right direction, with more bullish character changes among big-picture measures and, more importantly, leading stocks. Tonight, we’re going to add some exposure—we’re going to add another 5% stake in ProShares Ultra S&P Fund (SSO), buy another half-sized stake in Uber (UBER), and start a fresh half position in DoubleVerify (DV). That will leave us with just over half in cash—still plenty of cushion if the rally falters, but also lots of dry powder to pounce on new leaders should they continue to firm up.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The minefield environment for individual stocks remains in place—today, Academy Sports (ASO), after showing solid support earlier this week, is falling apart with the group after loose peer Foot Locker (FL) is being taken apart on earnings. We’ll dump our remaining shares today. That will leave us with around 74% in cash—there’s a good chance we’ll put some to work next week if the market hangs in there, though with the meat grinder still intact, we won’t jump in heavily until we start to see more individual leaders and major indexes kick into gear.

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