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CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s bounce, which does go along with a few short-term encouraging signs out there, from oversold measures to sentiment to the fact that many stocks have been pulling back “normally.” However, from an intermediate-term point of view, Mike simply needs to see more with all indexes and most stocks and sectors still in downtrends. The good news is that the bounce has already seen some resilient stocks begin to pop, and Mike review a bunch he’s watching for signs of upside follow through.
Stocks Discussed: NVDA, UBER, ACLS, AVGO, MNDY, TSLA, VMC, NTNX, CRWD, ESRC, LULU, YETI, ONTO, FN
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Chris and Brad discuss the impact of a possible government shutdown on investors, the Splunk (SPLK) deal and arbitraging or seeking out acquisition targets, and another promising development for cannabis stocks. Then they each offer up predictions for the end of Q4 on oil, the major indexes, earnings, and all things market-related.
Cabot Webinar
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from April 26, 2023 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Pro member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
Portfolio Updates This Week
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue September 21: The market remains in a two-month correction, but as opposed to the sloppy action seen in recent weeks, the sellers are now starting to pounce, damaging even the resilient big-cap indexes. Longer-term, we still believe the next major move is likely to be up, but we can’t ignore what’s in front of us: We’ve been cautious for weeks, and earlier today on a special bulletin, we pared back on two of our current positions, which will leave us with a cash position in the low 50% range.
In tonight’s issue, we give you our latest thoughts on just about everything -- our stocks, the market, the big picture and interest rates, which, after two years, are still one of (if not the) key drivers of the market. There will be a sustained advance that comes out of all this, but we continue to think patience is the name of the game for now.
Bi-weekly Update September 28: WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious, as there’s not much change with our indicators or stance—the intermediate-term trend of most stocks, sectors and indexes is down, and while sentiment is very bearish and a decent number of growth stocks are holding well, it’s best to stay close to shore until the buyers return. Yesterday, we sold one-third of our remaining position in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO) and are now holding about 55% in cash.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue September 25: The Fed’s latest hawkish stance prompted an upside breakout in Treasury rates and a big late-week selloff in the stock market, with just about everything getting whacked. That action puts to bed the rally attempt from late August, of course, and reinforces our overall stance—the intermediate-term trend remains down, and with the broadening of selling pressure, we’re pulling our Market Monitor down to a level 5. To be fair, though, we’re not sticking our head in the sand: Yes, there are many worries, but the longer-term trend is still up and there’s plenty of evidence suggesting a resumption of the post-bear rally is coming at some point. Even so, it’s best to wait to see the bulls arrive first than to catch falling knives—right now, we advise holding plenty of cash.
While there aren’t many super-strong stocks out there, this week’s list has many that have taken the selling in stride thus far. Our Top Pick is helping to lead a group move that got underway a few weeks ago and could be starting its first pullback—further weakness would be tempting.
Movers & Shakers September 29: The market has found some support as the week has gone on, turning what looked like a second straight dreadful week into a reasonable one. Near the open of Friday’s trading, the bigger-cap indexes were up modestly (1% or less) on the week, while small-/mid-cap indexes were up 1.5% or so.
Cabot Options Trader and Cabot Options Trader Pro
Cabot Options Trader Pro Weekly Update
Cabot Options Trader Weekly Update
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue September 5: Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the September 2023 issue.
We do a deep-dive into what ails Citigroup (C) shares and remain steadfast in our conviction.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
Weekly Update September 26: Cisco Systems (CSCO) announced a huge $28 billion deal for security software specialist Splunk (SPLK). Regardless of concerns over the economy, rising interest rates, the incipient tech-driven Cold War II, rising government focus on anti-trust and other macro issues, there will always be blockbuster deals. We dig into the deal in our comments below on Cisco.
Cabot Stock of the Week
Weekly Issue September 25: So much for the market being boring! The Fed – with its “higher for longer” vow – broke up the recent monotony, albeit not in a good way. The S&P 500 has dipped to its lowest level since June, and growth stocks have had a rough go these last two months. But all signs point to a fourth-quarter bounce-back – new bull markets almost never up and fizzle within a matter of months. Knowing this, today we add a beaten-down biotech stock with plenty of upside, a recent recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.
Cabot Explorer
Bi-weekly Issue September 21: As part of our ongoing “Core & Explore” approach, today I present three new ETFs for your consideration. These three funds should help you weather the market’s many ups and downs these days. They are designed to remain both in the market and keep flexible to take advantage of new growth opportunities without going overboard.
Bi-weekly Update September 28: The market and most Explorer positions struggled a bit this week except Conoco (COP), which is benefitting from crude oil hitting 2023 highs. Consumers and businesses are looking forward to the Fed ending interest rate increases as the inflation fight continues. Food inflation slowed to about 3% year-over-year in August, down from a troubling 13% a year earlier. Those topics, plus Japan, China and the electric vehicle arms race, in today’s Cabot Explorer update.
Cabot Small-Cap Confidential
Monthly Issue September 7: This month we’re jumping into a highly specialized financial services company that helps immigrants send money to friends and families overseas.
You can think of it as the modern version of Western Union (WU). But there’s more to the story than that. Starting with a vision that’s a lot more about helping customers than overcharging them.
The hook is that revenue growth is off the charts. And it’s profitable!
All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
Weekly Update September 28: The market has been on edge since the Fed’s hawkish tone and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) last week. But if we can get oil and interest rates to back off a little and some stock-specific catalysts during the upcoming Q3 earnings season maybe we can finally take our macroeconomist hats off and get back to doing what we’d rather do. Which is talk about some of the great small growth stories out there!
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue September 13: This year’s strong market has surprised most pundits. Hopefully, the good times last. Anything is possible.
I don’t want to get into the business of trying to predict what the market will do over the rest of the year. Even if you get things right, some stupid headline can come out of nowhere and change all the math. There’s a much better way than market timing.
Buying good stocks cheap is perhaps the best way to assure good returns over time. Different market sectors go in and out of favor all the time. Technology stocks were out of favor at the beginning of this year. No one wanted energy stocks at the beginning of 2021.
You may not think there are a lot of bargains anymore. Sure, it’s a bull market for the indexes. But it is still the darkest days of the bear market in certain places. Defensive stocks in utilities and other sectors are wallowing near the lows of last October while the indexes are whooping it up.
In this issue, I highlight three defensive portfolio positions. These stocks are all selling near 52-week lows and, in some cases, multi-year lows. But operational results at these companies have been as strong as ever. And all these currently out-of-favor stocks have long histories of superstar performance that blows away the returns of the overall market.
Forget the Fed, and inflation, or the velocity of the landing. Buying some of the very best dividend stocks on the market near the lowest valuation at which they ever sell should be a money-making strategy regardless of what happens with all that other stuff.
Weekly Update September 27: This market is officially flirting with ugly. The S&P is now down about 7% from the 52-week high and not far from correction territory, down 10% from the high.
The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue September 20: In the September issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we look into what this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting could mean for the market. Then we dig into five small-cap companies from the industrial, biotech, software and clean energy markets. There’s something for everybody.
Cabot Profit Booster
Weekly Issue September 26: It was a somewhat ugly week for the market as the Federal Reserve continued to push its hawkish agenda and the bond market reacted violently. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 2.93%, the Dow had fallen 1.89%, and the Nasdaq had declined by 3.62%.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue September 26: In this issue, I highlight the stock of a company that operates in an incredible niche market that has provided earnings growth for 31 consecutive years and enabled the stock to consistently outperform the market in every kind of environment. The company is positioned for strong growth in the years ahead and is selling below its average valuations over the last five years despite the high-priced market.
Weekly Update September 19: The market is always uncertain. No one ever really knows in which direction the next 5% or 10% move will be. But this is a much higher level of uncertainty than usual.
The good year so far has been a surprise. Most pundits were forecasting more gloom and doom at the beginning of the year. But the S&P 500 is up 15% YTD. It rallied on the promise of a soft landing and then got a further boost as artificial intelligence spending promises to be a strong growth catalyst for the market’s largest sector for years to come. After sputtering for the last six weeks, where does it go from here?
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue September 27: The attention of most investors, commentators and analysts has been on the winners, notably the Magnificent Seven, driving this year’s stock market rally. As contrarians, we are fine with letting a few overpriced trendy stocks capture the spotlight. One place that draws our attention is the other end of the spectrum – those with the worst performance. While most of these stocks fully deserve the market’s dour judgment, some have favorable changes underway. We look into four large and mid-cap stocks that fit this description and one that does not. We also discuss a tactic to help improve one’s success in investing in out-of-favor stocks.
Our feature recommendation this month is Advance Auto Parts (AAP), one of the four major auto parts retailers. The shares have fallen sharply out of favor, but a comprehensive and much-needed overhaul is now starting.
We also include our recent Sell recommendations: Toshiba (TOSYY), Holcim AG (HCMLY), First Horizon (FHN) and ESAB Corporation (ESAB), and our suspension of our rating of shares of Kopin Corporation (KOPN).
Weekly Update September 29: There were no earnings this past week, but earnings season is just around the corner. The beleaguered Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), without a permanent CEO, kicks off our season with its Thursday, October 12 report, followed the next day by Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C).
Cabot Cannabis Investor
Monthly Issue September 27: The Senate banking committee is likely to approve key cannabis sector banking reform today.
Approval would be a significant catalyst for the group. So, it may spark a tradable rally.
Short-term traders may want to sell the strength in this volatile group. Another option would be to de-lever cannabis exposure by selling a portion of AdvisorShares MSOS 2x Daily ETF (MSOX) holdings and swapping the funds into the unlevered version, AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (MSOS). That maintains exposure to the group in front of expected catalysts ahead but dampens some portfolio volatility.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine October: When it comes to your financial health, saving more money can be just as important as earning more money. If you’ve been considering buying an electric vehicle, making improvements to your home, or just replacing a window, the Inflation Reduction Act unleashed a slew of federal rebates that will put more money back in your pocket. This month we’ll focus on how to take advantage of those programs, plus, we’ll explore a wide range of discounts available to seniors, students, travelers, and more.
Stock of the Month September 14: We’re still playing the seesaw game in the markets—up, down, up, down, etc. I don’t see any need for excess worry; just a little caution that we buy the right stocks. I’m still very long-term bullish, and why not?
The economy continues to strengthen; 79% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index reported positive earnings surprises for the second quarter, and the third quarter looks even better; home building continues to be strong, although low inventory levels continue to pressure resales. Home prices appear to be stabilizing, and employment remains strong.
The soothsayers seem to think that the Fed will keep rates steady at its next meeting, and the probability of a recession has fallen to 16%. What’s not to like?
Ask the Experts
Prime Question for Mike: Hi Mike. This happened: SPY, QQQs, DIA continue to rally - until IWM cannot clear $200, then everything sells off again.
Now we must ask ourselves as September ends whether the market can bounce back, leaving the VIX in the dust.
According to Ryan Detrick (of Carson Research Group),“The last 9 times the S&P was lower in both August and September saw Q4 close higher (back to 1981). Higher 9 for 9 and up 9.1% on average.”
Can we make it 10 for 10? Let’s ask Granddad Russell 2000 and Granny Retail. So stay close to shore or buying opportunity?
Mike: Yep, I’m reading all the same stuff you are, and that would play into the down-for-now, up-later theory. That said, a lot of studies said September would be an up month since the VIX dipped under 14 during August – good to have outlooks, but I personally like to see it confirmed by some action.
Nothing wrong with a little nibbling and we’re not 100% in cash – this isn’t 2008 or even 2022. But at the same time, catching falling knives is very tricky.