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We remain in a confirmed bear market, so caution is still appropriate.
But there’s always something interesting to consider buying, and this week’s recommendation is a young stock with a good story, which involves helping the oil and gas industries use water more efficiently.


As for the current portfolio, which is 25% in cash, there’s one Sell.


Details in the issue.

This month we go back to the MedTech well and pull out a small company with a potentially transformative technology that could shake up the organ transplant market.

With recent FDA approvals and a platform that appears to be head and shoulders above the standard of care, this company is enjoying rapid revenue growth now.



Enjoy!

The first half of 2022 came to a close last week, and the numbers weren’t pretty; the S&P 500 fell 20%, the Dow was lower by 15% and the Nasdaq declined by 30%. How the second half of the year will play out is anyone’s guess. However, until stocks show any real signs of sustained momentum, I will continue to keep the portfolio diversified, and will lean defensive with our options selling strategy

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Today, I’m adding Cleveland, Ohio-based company Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America.

Today, I’m adding the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company Cameco (CCJ), which has held up spectacularly throughout this market meltdown. Though of note, this stock is volatile and we are going to play it super defensively, with an in-the-money call.

The situation remains the same as it has for the past week or so. When it comes to selling pressures, we’re seeing some signs that they’re starting to ease, but, on the buying side, there isn’t much evidence to suggest the bulls are flexing their muscles, as most indexes, sectors and growth funds are still in downtrends while rallies into resistance (whether for an index or stock) almost always attracts quick selling. Yes, there are still many old world stocks that are acting well (though we’ll see how today’s commodity-related selloff goes), so we’re not opposed to nibbling on these sorts of pullbacks. But overall, we think watchful waiting is the right course.



This week’s list is intriguing as there are a good number of fresh breakouts here, some from very long ranges. Our Top Pick is one of those, with the company’s massive step-up in earnings last year expected to persist for at least the next couple of years.

Today, I’m adding an American petroleum contract drilling company, Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP).

For the past several weeks, we have bought oils and commodity stocks. Today, I’m going to diversify our portfolio a bit, adding American semiconductor supplier, Onsemi (ON).

Current Market Outlook


After a vacuum of selling pressures helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soar to new highs, last week’s generally tight, calm action was just what you want to see—despite the run, investors aren’t booking profits and the bears aren’t coming out of the woodwork. That’s not to say there won’t be pullbacks (possibly brief, sharp dips) or that every investor is rowing in the same direction—some groups are lagging and many major indexes are still shy of their September peaks. Thus, you shouldn’t buy with both fists, but there’s clearly enough evidence to be bullish and look to latch onto new leading stocks as they emerge.

This week’s list is chock-full of stocks with big stories and powerful charts. There are many we like, but for our Top Pick we’ll go with Medivation (MDVN), a well-traded (but little-known) biotech firm that has a blockbuster treatment for prostate cancer on its hands.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Wabtec (WAB)	0.00	86-89	81-82
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	119-123	110-111
Textron (TXT)	0.00	40.5-41.5	37.5-38.5
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	73.5-77	68-69
Receptos (RCPT)	0.00	103-108	88-90
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	128-135	122-124
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	106-111	96-98
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)	0.00	73-75	68-70
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	112-116	102-105
Allison Transmission (ALSN)	51.79	31.5-33.5	29.5-30

Current Market Outlook


The market remains all over the place, with nearly every day bringing another 1%-plus move in the major indexes; such wide-and-loose action isn’t usually a good thing after a big market advance. That said, our outlook isn’t negative here (we’re still more bullish than bearish), and we continue to see more and more stocks set-up to get going … if the bulls can create a real, sustained uptrend. For now, though, it’s best to hold your top performers, do a little buying (preferably on weakness) and hold some cash as we wait for the market to show its true colors.

This week’s list is encouraging, as we’re not having any trouble spotting stocks that have consolidated tightly or recently popped to new highs on good volume. Our Top Pick is the first big-cap growth stock to surge above resistance this week—Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which remains a great cookie-cutter story.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	149-154	137-139
Rackspace (RAX)	0.00	45-48	42-43
Rackspace (RAX)	0.00	45-48	42-43
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	60-62	54-55
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)	49.79	42-44	39-40
D. R. Horton (DHI)	66.55	25.5-26.5	23.5-24
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	695-720	650-655
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	285-295	265-268
Brunswick Corporation (BC)	0.00	51-53	47-48
Alkermes (ALKS)	0.00	63-67	56-57
Align Technology Inc. (ALGN)	316.20	60-62	56-57

Current Market Outlook


Officially, the major indexes are still in no-man’s land, gyrating within their two-month ranges. But the action is definitely feeling heavier. While a few stocks have emerged during earnings season (including a few in today’s issue), every market rally of a day or two has led to quick selling pressure; the broad market can’t get its act together and most stocks that poke into new high ground quickly retreat. We’re still not willing to make any bold predictions here—the environment remains more choppy than bearish—but the bottom line is that no money is being made. Thus we are knocking our Market Monitor down a notch (though it’s still in neutral territory) due to the recent deterioration.

The silver lining is that our screens are still picking up on a good number of resilient stocks, including more than a few earnings winners. Our Top Pick this week is Harman International (HAR), which has come to life after a yearlong rest. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	103-107	95-97
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	70-73	65-66
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	420-440	385-390
Lowe’s Companies (LOW)	98.15	66-68	60-62
Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR)	0.00	126-131	115-116
Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)	0.00	30-32	26.5-27
Blackstone Group (BX)	49.12	35.5-36.5	32-33
Burlington Stores (BURL)	193.95	45-50	44.5-45
Biogen (BIIB)	0.00	378-385	348-352
Boeing (BA)	432.22	141.5-146.5	130-132

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a correction, down 10%. The technology- laden NASDAQ is already well beyond a correction. Energy is the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory YTD.



The problem is inflation and the Fed raising rates to combat it. There is a realization that inflation can’t be handled seamlessly. That means we could face continued high inflation, or much slower economic growth induced by a hyperactive Fed making up for lost time. Neither scenario is good for stocks.



While the year might be difficult for the overall market, the energy and financial sectors should shine. These sectors actually like inflation and rising interest rates. While portfolio positions in those sectors have been dragged lower by the recent indiscriminate selling, I expect them to regain momentum when this selloff ends.



Two fantastic portfolio positions in energy and finance are highlighted to buy in this issue. They had momentum going into the selloff and should pick up where they left off when the selling abates.

The market remains under pressure, with our Cabot Tides and the “Growth Tides” (see more in this issue) negative, and even our longer-term Cabot Trend Lines on the verge of a sell signal. To be fair, we are starting to see some “real” extremes in terms of some sentiment and oversold measures, so we’re hopeful a bounce could get underway soon; we’re not ruling out some nibbling or re-jiggering in the Model Portfolio. But the main trends remain down, so our main advice is to stay mostly on the sideline and keep your watch list updated with potential fresh leaders.