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Tomorrow afternoon traders will get another look at how the Federal Reserve perceives the inflation situation, as well as its plans to manage interest rate hikes going forward. Below are the expectations in the options market, the bond market, and from a couple Wall Street firms.

The market is on course to have a nice week as the S&P 500 is higher by 3%, the Dow is up 1.2% and the Nasdaq tacked on 3% of gains. The VIX is trading at 13, which is lower by 17% on the week, which given the market’s gains is not surprising ahead of a long weekend.

The market is on course to have a nice week as the S&P 500 is higher by 3%, the Dow is up 1.2% and the Nasdaq tacked on 3% of gains. The VIX is trading at 13, which is lower by 17% on the week, which given the market’s gains is not surprising ahead of a long weekend.

On to the market. It was a funkier week than last week, though big picture nothing has changed. We are moving into the tail end of earnings season so we may see a more moderate amount of investor interest over the next two weeks.

Remain mostly bullish as our trend-following indicators are still positive and most leading stocks are in solid uptrends. We have no changes in the Model Portfolio tonight as we are keeping some cash (17%) on the sidelines.

Remain bullish, but stay tuned. The market’s recent Brexit-induced dip has put our Cabot Tides back on the fence, though our Two-Second Indicator and Cabot Trend Lines are still bullish. A Tides sell signal would cause us to raise more cash, but tonight we’re mostly standing pat; our only change is moving Facebook (FB) to Hold. The Model Portfolio is holding about 20% in cash.

All of our market timing indicators are now positive, and yesterday brought yet another “blastoff” signal, so the odds strongly favor higher prices during the next few months. In the Model Portfolio, we’re adding Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) and averaging up on ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) tonight. Combined with Monday morning’s new buys, that will leave us with about 8% in cash.

Remain cautious, but stay open minded. We’re encouraged by the recent action from the market, including some of the power and breadth of the rally.

While still very choppy, this past week has been much better than the two weeks prior as the selloff in growth stocks has cooled and more investors have begun to think longer term. While the risk of inflation is still an overhang on high-multiple stocks, the passage of time allows global supply chains to re-adjust and for people/companies/policy setters to get a better handle on what the legitimate inflation risk is.

Despite more grumblings out there about how “we are due for a pullback,” stocks continue to hold up. In fact, many growth stocks have done far better than that and are jumping higher on almost a daily basis.

Here are earnings updates on two of our stocks.

A very promising start to the trading week, which saw the indexes surge higher by 5%, was somewhat washed away by Friday’s post Jobs Report sell-off. And while the steep declines Friday were worrisome, big picture the S&P 500 still managed to gain 1.5% on the week, the Dow rallied 2%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%.

Current Market Outlook


Last week was the third straight down week for the major indexes. More importantly to us, all remain clearly below their 50-day moving average. That keeps the intermediate-term trend pointed down, which combined with some soggy action from key groups (oils and chip stocks look like death) is a good reason to remain relatively cautious. Of course, not all is bleak—the longer-term evidence is still positive, and most leading stocks are in decent shape (though many did take on water last week). Overall, then, the song remains the same: We advise holding most of your strong, profitable stocks, but also holding a good-sized chunk of cash and being very choosy on the buy side. The onus remains on the bulls to retake control—until then, step lightly.

This week’s list has another strong group of stocks; a nibble here or there is fine, or simply put your favorites on your watch list. Our Top Pick is Array Biopharma (ARRY), which emerged on big volume last week, and it helps that many biotech names are acting resiliently.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	25-26.5	22.5-24
Ascendis Pharma (ASND)	119.09	123-128	112-115
Copart (CPRT)	74.80	69-71	63.5-64.5
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH)	174.52	177-183	162-166
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)	37.44	35-36	31.5-32.5
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	31-32	28.5-29.5
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	116-120	106-108
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	27.5-29.5	24.5-25.5
Viasat (VSAT)	81.22	90-92	83-84.5
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	132-136	121-123

Growth stocks have changed character over the past week, with abnormal action and breakdowns appearing. The good news is that a major top doesn’t appear to be in place; the general market is still hanging in there for now, and the long-term trend of most leaders is still up. But, taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, we’ve pared back a bunch and are actually holding more than half the portfolio in cash. That’s probably too high (we’d like to put some to work in fresher leaders), but we’re content to patiently wait for buyers to support the market.

In tonight’s issue, we review all our stocks, dive into the two main factors to your investment returns and go over many fresher names that could help lead the market’s next upmove.

The market remains in good shape, but growth stocks have come under pressure -- for the first time in months, we’re seeing a good amount of abnormal action. Longer-term, we’re still quite bullish, both on the market and on leading stocks, but given the action (and our solid gains this year), we’ve been paring back, with numerous partial profits and one outright sale, which has us holding a 37% cash position.

In tonight’s issue we write about all our latest thoughts on the market, and how to handle big winners that begin to act iffy. We also write up a handful of names we’re watching should growth stocks stabilize.

The overall evidence continues to lean bullish, but growth stocks are on a wild ride, first selling off in August/early September, then rallying for a few weeks before backing off again in recent days. We remain optimistic, but are still taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, pulling the plug on laggards while aiming to put money to work in potential new leaders. This week, we let go of Wingstop on Monday, leaving us with around one-quarter of the portfolio in cash.

In tonight’s issue, we write more about our thoughts on the market and our stocks, talk about one recent sell we wish we had back and dive into two secondary indicators we’re watching closely to tell us when the market (and growth stocks) will decisively break out.

The market remains very strong, with the trends of the major indexes and the vast majority of stocks pointed up, both of which keeps us mostly bullish. But really, we’re looking at things mainly on a stock-by-stock basis now; some names are extremely extended and vulnerable to air pockets, while others are just a few weeks into what look like new, sustained advance. With that in mind, we’re actually taking partial profits on one stock today, while averaging up in another — all in all, we’ll still be around 18% in cash.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we write about some of our favorite cookie-cutter stories out there at the moment; we own one great one, but we’d like to have another. And we also review all our stocks, present some new ideas and talk a bit how to handle the speculative, super-hot names in the proper fashion.

Current Market Outlook


Last night, the headlines blared that there was no deal among Middle Eastern countries to curtail oil production, which led to a big overnight move down in oil prices and threatened to take a chunk out of major stock markets. Today, though, the reaction was fine—stocks actually rose on the day while oil prices declined only modestly. It’s not just a good lesson (pay attention—not to the news—but the market’s reaction to the news!), but also a good sign that the general market can shrug off “bad news” and continue along its way. More important will be earnings season, which will pick up steam in the days ahead. Right now, we continue to lean bullish and will be watching earnings reactions closely—how stocks react to their reports will be very revealing.

This week’s list has a mix of old world stocks (housing, construction, precious metals) and growth-oriented stocks (retail, technology). Our Top Pick is Adobe Systems (ADBE), a big-cap growth stock that has a great story and looks poised to break out.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TAL Education (XRS)	0.00	52-54.5	49-50
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	180-183	166-167
Weibo (WB)	98.16	20.5-21.5	18-19
U.S. Concrete (USCR)	0.00	61-63	55-56
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	22-23	20-20.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	58-61	53-54
KB Home (KBH)	36.05	13.5-14.5	12.5-13
Kate Spade & Company (KATE)	0.00	23-24.5	21-21.5
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)	79.05	38-39.5	35-36
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	94-97	87.5-88

It wasn’t surprising to see the market pick up some steam following the resolution to Washington’s latest deadline. But what has been surprising is the sheer strength seen from the broad market and leading stocks. They’re hot! And, as we had hoped, some new leadership is beginning to emerge during earnings season. Of course, investor sentiment is bubbly, earnings season is still ongoing and many stocks are extended, so some potholes are possible. But given the evidence, we’re shifting our Market Monitor back into bullish territory.

This week’s list has a bunch of names that had been taking a breather during the past two to four months, but have now come alive on big volume as the buyers return. Our favorite is Spirit Airlines (SAVE), one of the few airline stocks that has a true, sustainable growth story.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	165-175	145-150
Seagate Technology (STX)	0.00	47-50	42.5-44
Stratasys (SSYS)	0.00	105-110	99-100
SunPower (SPWR)	12.26	32-34	26-27
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK)	0.00	67-69	61-62
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	40-43	35-36
Google Inc. (GOOG)	0.00	980-1,000	862-882
Finisar (FNSR)	0.00	24.5-26	22-23
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)	0.00	51-54	45-46
Athenahealth (ATHN)	0.00	130-138	116-118

In recent weeks, we’ve seen outstanding moves among growth stocks (and, increasingly, the broad market), which coincided with increasing giddiness among many investors. That’s a yellow flag, and today, we saw the first signs of abnormal selling among the leaders—big-volume distribution was evident among many stocks, no matter what the sector. To be fair, few names truly broke down, so we’ll keep our Market Monitor where it’s been. But today was a shot across the bow; the next few days should tell us whether this is a shakeout (we’ve seen a few this year), or whether a deeper (and well-deserved) retreat is likely during October.

This week’s list has many names that are more recent winners, and those types of names held up far better than most extended stocks today. Our favorite of the week is Las Vegas Sands (LVS), a leader from 2009-2010 that has re-emerged after a two-year rest. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Whirlpool (WHR)	0.00	144-147.5	138-139
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	75-78	68-70
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	111-116	100-102
Safeway (SWY)	0.00	29-31	26-27
NQ Mobile (NQ)	0.00	21-23	18-19
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)	0.00	62-65	58-59
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	33.5-35	29-30
Finisar (FNSR)	0.00	22-24	20.5-21
Salesforce.com (CRM)	0.00	50-52	46-47
Boeing (BA)	432.22	114-117	107-107.5