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Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2021 issue.



Rivian Automotive’s (RIVN) initial public offering, which arrives next week at a likely $60 billion valuation, has us thinking more deeply about General Motors (GM). Investors are assigning little value to its EV and other advanced technologies, which strikes us as incompatible with the valuations of Tesla, Rivian and other EV start-ups. But, perhaps this is right, due to the enormous capital spending that GM has committed to. These vast cash outflows may eliminate the present value of the EVs. We share some of our thinking on this.

This is the worst market we’ve seen in a while. And the ugliness could last a while.

Tariff talk is all the rage. The economy is slowing. Nobody is sure about inflation or interest rates. It all adds uncertainty. The market had been riding high for more than two years. A comeuppance has arrived. How long will it last and how deep will it be?

During times of maximum uncertainty like this, healthcare stocks are a great place to be. That was the topic of last month’s exquisitely crafted issue. But there is another industry with both defensive and growth characteristics that’s ideal for uncertain times – garbage.

We live in the garbage capital of the world. This country generated 292 million tons of waste in 2018, up from 251 tons in 2012, and nearly double the waste produced in 1980. That’s enough waste to produce a pile long enough to go to the moon and back – 29 times. And that’s every single year. Waste services are big business. In 2023, the U.S. waste management services industry generated $145 billion in revenue. That was up from $137 billion the prior year and that number is likely to keep rising.

Garbage will continue to pile up regardless of where interest rates go, the level of economic growth, or the fallout from tariffs. The market could soar, or the world could go to Hell in a handbag. Either way my wife will nag me every week to take out the garbage.

Bank on a company with certain earnings and revenue in uncertain times. Defensive stocks tend to outperform during and after volatile markets. In this issue, I highlight a company that is the unquestioned leader in waste services. The stock has a strong track record which could get even better in the years ahead.

The market has shifted into a news-driven environment; today the indexes popped higher as it appears any strike on Syria will be delayed, or possibly abandoned. But with many economic reports coming up that could affect interest rates (including the jobs report on Friday) and with Congress debating Syria, expect more gyrations ahead. Overall, our outlook is the same as the past two weeks—with many growth stocks acting well, you should hold your top performers and look to do a little buying on weakness. But with the indexes chopping around, you should also hold some cash and wait for a real green light before getting too aggressive.

This week’s list includes a few secondary-type names; there aren’t as many liquid leaders as has been the case in past weeks. But there are plenty with big potential. Our favorite is Hain Celestial (HAIN), a direct play on the organic food movement, whose stock just emerged from a year-long rest.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow (Z)	76.64	92-97	78-80
Web.com (WWWW)	0.00	27-28.5	25-25.5
Sina Corp. (SINA)	0.00	76-80	68-69
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)	0.00	48-51	45-46
Laredo Petroleum (LPI)	0.00	24-25.5	22.5-23
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)	0.00	85-87	79-80
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	33-34.5	29-30
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS)	0.00	22-23.5	20.5-21
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)	0.00	78-80.5	73-74
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK)	0.00	25-26	23.5-24

Trouble usually comes from where investors least expect it, and it’s fair to say that Cyprus was not on most radar screens before this weekend. The much-publicized shock brought up fears of a 2008-style bank run, but it’s important to keep your feet on the ground and stick with the evidence. Right now, the trend is still up, and most stocks are in good shape; we did see some churning among the most extended stocks last week, so they might need a break, but we haven’t seen much abnormal action that occurs when the sellers take control. If that changes, we’ll let you know, but right here we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory—further short-term weakness could be in store, but the odds continue to favor higher prices in the weeks ahead.

This week’s list has a bunch of charts that look very strong and most are not overly extended to the upside. Our top pick is from the energy patch—Tesoro (TSO) is part of the very strong refining group, and the stock has eased back to support after a powerful run in February. We think it’s a good buy around here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tesoro (TSO)	0.00	54-56	-
Parexel Corp. (PRXL)	0.00	36-38	-
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	35-36	-
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	176-190	-
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF)	0.00	21-22.5	-
Delta Air Lines (DAL)	54.28	14.5-15.5	-
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)	0.00	63-66	-
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	109-113	-
Citigroup Inc. (C)	0.00	44-46	-
Aruba Networks (ARUN)	0.00	24.5-26	-

In the June Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we take note of the market’s string of all-time highs and accelerating pace of consumer spending.

Against that backdrop we present a batch of stocks that offer exposure to a variety of trends, from retail spending and auto maintenance to consumer lending, customer care for enterprises and even vaccine manufacturing.



As always, there’s something for everyone!



Enjoy!

In the October Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we continue to snap up shares of high-growth software stocks, while adding a couple of consistent growers in the landscaping and waste management arenas to round out our market exposure.

Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the April 2021 issue.

This month we look at defense industry stocks. These stocks have been left aside as investors rush to capture post-pandemic winners, and as the market has doubts about the Biden administration’s commitment to defense spending. Yet, these concerns appear overdone, and investors aren’t considering the possibility of a ramp-up in response to rising global tensions. We discuss six interesting stocks.



We also look at high yield bonds. Our call in February 2020, that “the Sun May Be Setting On High Yield Bonds,” appears to be the right one once again. Yield levels and spreads have returned to remarkably low levels. Our discussion also outlines what favorable and unfavorable conditions look like.



Our feature recommendation is pet health company Elanco Animal Health (ELAN). This company has produced mediocre operating and stock price performance since its 2018 spin-off from Eli Lilly. Yet, changes appear to be coming with the arrival of a credible activist that is reshaping the board of directors.



We also include comments on recent price target and rating changes, including our recent Sell recommendations on Valero Energy (VLO) and Volkswagen AG (VWAGY).



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Growth stocks had worked to set themselves up nicely in recent weeks, but all of that has fallen by the wayside, with names getting obliterated this week before and after earnings.

Despite an already-cautious stance, we’ve sold three more stocks this week, though we are nibbling on one new name in tonight’s issue. Even so, we’re content to remain defensive until the bloodletting stops.



In tonight’s issue, we write about one of the factors that thankfully kept us cautious of late, as well as dive into the energy sector, where the bullish thesis is playing out

In the May Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we acknowledge the increasingly choppy action in the market and the unprecedented nature of the current recovery.

Similar to last month, we focus on diversifying new buys across different end markets, offering up names with exposure to everything from mobile gaming to oil services to off-road suspension, and more. In short, there’s something for everyone and, we think, enough variety to capture the upside in a wide range of spring and summer market conditions.



Enjoy!

In today’s update, I outline the reasons why I have every intention of remaining invested in various oil industry stocks in the foreseeable future and give a detailed update on all positions in the portfolio.

The sellers did some damage last week, with many major indexes falling close to their 50-day moving averages. Today’s bounce obviously helps the situation, but even before today, many growth stocks were holding up well, with a few shooting ahead, despite the market’s troubles. Few stocks are running away on the upside, so we’re content to keep our Market Monitor just outside of bullish territory. But the action is another piece of evidence that growth stocks might finally be turning the corner.

This week’s list is a mixed bag of growth-ier ideas, but also some special situations. Our top pick is Forest Labs (FRX), a large company whose stock is enjoying increased institutional support. The current pullback offers a decent entry point.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)	0.00	70-72	64-65
SouFun (SFUN)	0.00	70-72	60-61
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE)	0.00	210-220	188-190
Huntington Ingalls (HII)	0.00	78-82	74-75
Generac Holdings (GNRC)	86.60	50-52	47-48
Forest Labs (FRX)	0.00	53-55	48-49
DreamWorks (DWA)	0.00	31-33	28-29
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)	0.00	137-143	129-131
Arris Group (ARRS)	0.00	20-21	17-18
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)	0.00	104-108	96-98

The evidence has generally improved during the past two weeks, with the major indexes remaining in solid uptrends and, most encouragingly, more growth-oriented stocks showing power and emerging from basing structures. All of that is to the good, but earnings season is ramping up, and we know that can change any stock’s or sector’s outlook in a hurry. Put it together, and we’re still sticking with our lean bullish stance—now’s probably not the time to buy five or six stocks at once, but there are many attractive names out there, and getting in at opportune times should pay off.

This week’s list is heavy on growth stocks, though there are a couple of cyclical and special situation ideas, too. Our favorite of the week is HomeAway (AWAY), a firm we remain keen on, and a stock that’s testing support for the first time since a powerful November breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
T-Mobile US (TMUS)	0.00	30-32	27-28
SolarCity (SCTY)	0.00	70-74	63-64
Altisource Residential (RESI)	0.00	31.5-33	29-29.5
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	63-65	53-55
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	60-62.5	55-56
The Manitowoc Company (MTW)	0.00	23.5-25	21.5-22
Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR)	0.00	87-90	80-81
Forest Labs (FRX)	0.00	65-70	59-60
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	40-42	37-37.5
AOL, Inc. (AOL)	0.00	48-50	44-45

Trouble comes from where investors least expect it, so it’s not surprising to us that the Russia-Ukraine situation is making investors nervous. Is there a chance this is the event that capsizes the market? Of course there is—and that’s why you should watch your stops and risk. But after such a powerful rally for much of February among the major indexes and many stocks, the odds favor the first dip being buyable, at least among leading stocks. That doesn’t mean the pullback can’t last a few days (news-driven ups and downs are likely in the short-term), but with the overall uptrend intact, we remain optimistic.

This week’s list isn’t as growth-oriented as the past few weeks, but there are still more than a few good stories here. Our Top Pick is Avis Budget (CAR), a well-known firm with surprisingly solid earnings growth prospects as global travel increases.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
58.com (WUBA)	0.00	46-48	41-42
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)	0.00	36-38	34-35
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	0.00	93-95	85-87
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	54-57	49.5-50.5
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)	512.96	320-330	275-280
Penn Virginia (PVA)	0.00	14-14.5	12-12.5
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	95-100	85-90
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	105-112	91-92
Avis Budget Group (CAR)	0.00	45-47	41-42
Basic Energy Services (BAS)	0.00	21.5-23	19-20

There remain a few warts on the market’s current rally, including some meaningful divergences (the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have yet to reach new highs like some of the broader big-cap indexes) and a lack of decisive breakouts from big-cap leaders (most are still working on launching pads). But the evidence is rarely going to line up perfectly; the fact is that during the past few weeks, more and more stocks have been acting well as selling pressures ease. Now’s a time to grow gradually more optimistic as the stocks you own and follow improve.

This week’s list includes one of those classic, big-cap breakouts that we alluded to above. Top Pick Applied Materials (AMAT) is in the process of completing a major acquisition that should boost its market dominance in a big way, and the stock has exploded out of a nice consolidation on very big volume.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)	154.94	72-76	69-70
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)	0.00	45-47	41-42
MeadWestvaco (MWV)	0.00	42-44	39-40
Lannett Company (LCI)	0.00	45-46	42-43
Illumina Inc. (ILMN)	289.74	160-170	154-155
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)	24.03	59-61	55-56
Consol Energy Inc. (CNX)	0.00	45-48	43-43.5
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)	0.00	52-55	48-49
Arris Group (ARRS)	0.00	32-34	28.5-29.5
Applied Materials (AMAT)	0.00	20-22	18-19

The selling pressures have been spreading during the past couple of weeks, moving from just the highfliers of the past year to much of the broad market. Most stocks (especially growth stocks) have suffered severe damage on their charts, and that will take time to repair; the odds are against a sustained rally from this point. That said, a few commodity-related groups continue to trade well, including a bunch of energy stocks that are beginning to push higher—they could prove to be new leaders if the market stabilizes. Overall, you should remain in a defensive stance because the overall trend is down, but buying a little of a resilient name or two is OK.

This week’s list is very heavy on commodity names, and our Top Pick is Athlon Energy (ATHL), a fast-growing producer in the Midland Basin. Its recent land grab is helping the stock push out from its first-ever base.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow (Z)	76.64	85-90	77-79
Stillwater Mining (SWC)	0.00	15-16	14-14.5
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)	0.00	13-14.5	11-12
Huntsman (HUN)	0.00	23-24.5	20-21
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB)	0.00	38-40.5	33-34
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS)	0.00	24-25	22-22.5
Diamondback Energy (FANG)	0.00	65-67	61-62
Concho Resources (CXO)	0.00	122-127	118-119
Athlon Energy (ATHL)	0.00	36.5-39	34-35
Archer Daniels (ADM)	0.00	43.5-44.5	41-42

Current Market Outlook


The overall market continues to act just fine, the trends are pointed up for most indexes and stocks, and the broad market remains in great shape. That said, it’s not all peaches and cream—the last three days have seen some selling pressure in a few highflyers and money flows into defensive groups (like utilities and consumer staples). Moreover, this action comes after a few short-term signs of enthusiasm, including a huge number of new highs on Nasdaq last Wednesday. Don’t get us wrong: We’re still bullish, and you should hold your strong stocks and be heavily invested. But we’ll knock our Market Monitor back down a notch (to a level 8), and think being selective on the buy side and ditching losers and laggards makes sense.

This week’s list has a broader array of stocks than in recent weeks as money flows shift. Our Top Pick is Square (SQ), which looks like a new leading growth stock after galloping ahead on earnings last week. Keep positions small and try to get in on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)	0.00	43.5-47	38-40
Autohome (ATHM)	98.65	32-34	30.5-29.5
HubSpot (HUBS)	582.89	57.5-60.5	55-53
Marriott Vacations (VAC)	0.00	93.5-97.5	87-89
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)	0.00	62-66	56-59
Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI)	54.14	38-40	35-36
Southwest Airlines (LUV)	0.00	55-57	51-52.5
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	17-18	15.2-15.6
Univar (UNVR)	0.00	30.5-32	28-29
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	82-85	74-76

Current Market Outlook


Usually when the market is stretched and sentiment is complacent, the market latches onto a reason to retreat, and last week provided it, with the Middle East conflict offering an excuse for sellers to get active and buyers to pull in. The good news is, thus far, the retreat has been reasonable—the major indexes are still even above their 25-day lines, and few stocks have cracked key support or flashed any abnormal action. That said, we’re leaning toward the view that, Iran or not, the short-term is likely to remain tricky, with rotation, potholes and news-driven moves likely to be the norm for a while. Thus, we remain bullish, but continue to advise picking your spots—many stocks have etched nice month-long rest periods, though some others probably need time to consolidate.

This week’s list has a bunch of names that haven’t appeared in Top Ten for a long time (if ever). Our Top Pick is Alibaba (BABA), which has finally kicked back into gear after a long time in the wilderness. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	208-216	192-196
Bilibili (BILI)	28.71	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	157.5-162.5	143-146
Eldorado Resorts (ERI)	0.00	56-58	51-52
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)	0.00	76.5-80	66.5-68.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	76-79	69.5-71
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	95-97.5	86-87.5
Tenet Healthcare (THC)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33.5
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	13.2-13.7	11.7-12.0
Scorpio Tankers (STNG)	0.00	37.5-39	33.5-34.5

More color on our recent sale that generated a 40% gain since September and comments on other recommended stocks.

With all of our stocks now having price targets assigned to them, we thought we’d share with you some of our process behind how we set those price targets.