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Explorer stocks were all up this past week with the exception of Ford (F) as inflation numbers out this morning are expected to show consumer-price inflation picked up again in January, to an annual pace of 7.2%.

It’s been another wild week as we’ve had four companies report quarterly results (two more are on deck tonight) and have seen the situation in Ukraine deteriorate as Russia has invaded the country. We’ve also had the S&P 500 Index officially slip into correction territory (-10% or more).

Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) reported official Q4 results this morning (preliminary results came out on January 11). Revenue of $10.1 million (up 216%) was at the high end of the preliminary range, as was full-year revenue (up 347% to $34.5 million).

After a four-day losing streak, stocks surged and oil prices fell yesterday, as volatility continued. Wary investors lack conviction as they track the economic fallout of the war in Ukraine. Higher inflationary expectations and lower growth are leading to investors hedging risks and buying opportunistically.

The market is bouncing around a lot on a road to nowhere.

It rallies one day and then sells off again the next. The indexes fell into correction territory when Russia invaded Ukraine and have bounced around the same level since. The invasion didn’t cause much of a selloff. But the market can’t get any real traction as long as the uncertainly remains.

The media, including highly reputable sources like Bloomberg, Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal, have written that “real” interest rates are now positive. As such, they imply that the Fed’s interest rate policy is already restrictive and so interest rates may not need to be raised much more. Our view is that the journalists are mistaken.

The markets continue to be challenging to say the least, with the S&P 500 off 18% so far this year, but like everyone I see some amazing companies posting strong numbers being pulled down over a blend of macro issues. These range from inflation and interest rates to the slowdown in China and conflict in Ukraine. Current Explorer recommendations still managed to outperform the market, with some up and most holding their ground in the past week. SQM (SQM) of Chile reported first-quarter profits up 10X over 2021.

The market has rallied strongly off last week’s lows. Buy I’m not buying into it. Stocks are already floundering badly again today.
The S&P 500 came to within close to 1% of a bear market last week, down 20% from the high on a closing basis before several up days and a better than 4% rally off the low. The index has posted six consecutive weeks of decline, the longest such streak in more than a decade.

After a rough week last week small caps have bounced back over the last two sessions and have the potential to close at a three-week high today. I’d like to see the S&P 600 Index close back above 1230 (at 1224 now) before turning more bullish.

Explorer positions had an up week as the S&P 500 has begun a turnaround from bear market territory and is now down “only” about 13% for the year. This means it is up around 6% since hitting its recent low on May 19 as the Fed has softened its tone and China tries to get growth going.

Electric vehicle sales are set to more than triple to just over 20 million in 2025, according to BloombergNEF. This is up from a previous estimate of 15 million.

We are moving shares of Marathon Oil (MRO) from Buy to Sell.

As we cruise into a holiday weekend, it’s (finally) been a solid week for the market—the major indexes are up in the 3% to 5% range, though most growth funds/indexes, while up, are lagging a bit behind that.

The financial press is full of chatter about what to do in the current market downturn. Common themes include timing the bottom (which usually includes the opposing suggestions to not time the markets followed by suggestions on how to do it), buying on the dips (highlighting the appeal vs. the danger that this is a secular bear market), and buying stocks that have been beaten down by 50% or more year-to-date. There are other themes, but these are the ones I see most often.

We are moving shares of Altria (MO) from Buy to Sell. While the shares remain 21% below our $66 price target, the risk/return trade-off has become unfavorable.

It’s been another sour week on the whole, with the major indexes down 3% to 4% even after what looks like a solid open today, with growth-oriented funds down even more. Obviously, the trends of just about everything remain down, so we’re sticking with our defensive stance.

Xometry (XMTR) delivered quarterly results ahead of expectations this morning.